6J 09-13 (1 Min) 07.18.2013

 Unemployment Weekly  Comments Off on 6J 09-13 (1 Min) 07.18.2013
Aug 092013
 

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 7_18_2013

7/18/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 344K
Actual: 334K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.009983
1st Peak @ 0.009965 – 0831 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.009983 – 0841 (11 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast by 10k jobs, causing a short spike of 18 ticks. It used the 50 SMA as resistance to spring the fall as it crossed the S2 Mid Pivot and extended the LOD 3 ticks. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 0.009978 with 1 tick of slippage. Look to exit at the LOD around 0.009968 for 10 ticks as it also hovered in the vicinity for about 8 sec. After pulling back and chopping sideways, it reversed back to the origin and the 50 SMA for 18 ticks in the next 10 min. Then it trended lower and achieved a double bottom 30 min later.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 07.11.2013

 Unemployment Weekly  Comments Off on 6J 09-13 (1 Min) 07.11.2013
Aug 092013
 

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 7_11_2013

7/11/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 342K
Actual: 360K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.010078
1st Peak @ 0.010105 – 0831 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.010067 – 0837 (7 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Report came in worse than the forecast by 18k jobs, causing a choppy long spike of 27 ticks. The premature volatility would have been a tripwire to disable the strategy and cancel the order, but in this case JOBB would have worked well. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 0.010082 with no slippage. Look to exit when it hovered near the top for about 9 sec. Sure enough it reversed and surrendered 14 ticks as the bar expired. The reversal achieved a total of 38 ticks in 6 min back to the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it chopped sideways as it stayed close to the major SMAs.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 07.05.2013

 Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly  Comments Off on ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 07.05.2013
Aug 092013
 

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 7_5_2013

7/5/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 163K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 195K
Previous Revision: +20K to 195K
Rate Forecast: 7.5%
Rate Actual: 7.6%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 134’26
1st Peak @ 133’10 – 0831 (1 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 133’29 – 0833 (3 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’20 – 0915 (45 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 133’04 – 0939 (69 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Strong positive report showing 32K more jobs created than expected, a moderate previous upward revision of 20K jobs, and a 0.1% increase in the unemployment U-3 rate due to more people looking for work. This caused the bonds to selloff for 48 ticks on the :30 bar, eclipsing all 3 major SMAs near the origin and the S3 Pivot near the bottom, leaving 6 ticks on the tail naked. With JOBB, you would not have filled due to excess slippage with the thin trading on the 4th of July weekend as slippage exceeded 8 ticks. The 8 tick limit is a restriction from the CME, but we will have a workaround for the next report. After the 1st peak, it reversed for 19 ticks in the next 2 bars, before falling for a 2nd peak of 22 more ticks in 45 min, eclipsing the S4 Pivot. Then it reversed for 16 ticks in the next 24 min and traded between the S4 Mid Pivot and LOD for the rest of the session.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 07.15.2013

 Retail Sales  Comments Off on ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 07.15.2013
Aug 092013
 

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 7_15_2013

7/15/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: 0.0%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.7%
Regular Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 0.5%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 133’14
1st Peak @ 134’04 – 0836 (6 min)
22 ticks

Final Peak @ 134’26 – 1037 (127 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 134’17 – 1110 (160 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report greatly disappointed the markets with a 0.5% miss on the core reading, 0.3% miss on the regular reading, and a slight downward revision on the regular reading. This caused a long spike of 22 ticks on 6 bars on the ZB as it was trading near the LOD and crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 133’17 with 1 tick of slippage, then look to exit at the S1 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA with 12 ticks as the :31 bar was expiring. It continued to step higher and higher in the following 2 hrs as it reached 134’26 for a total of 44 ticks, struggling briefly with the PP Pivot, but never penetrating the 50 SMA until 1100. The reversal after the final peak reclaimed 9 ticks in about 30 min.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 07.18.2013

 Philly FED Manufacturing Index  Comments Off on ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 07.18.2013
Aug 092013
 

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 7_18_2013

7/18/2013 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 8.5
Actual: 19.8
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 135’08
1st Peak @ 134’30 – 1001 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 135’04 – 1007 (7 min)
6 ticks

Final Peak @ 134’19 – 1207 (127 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 134’30 – 1238 (158 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a delta of over 11 pts, causing a short spike on the ZB that crossed the 50/100 SMAs and hit the LOD for 10 ticks on the :01 bar. With JOBB, your order would have filled short at 135’05 with 1 tick of slippage, then look for the LOD and S1 Mid Pivot at 134’31 as a target for 6 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 6 ticks in the following 6 min back to the 13 SMA, then it fell again to step lower for an extended final peak of 11 more ticks in 2 hrs as it hit the S1 Pivot and used the 100 SMA as resistance. Then it reversed for 11 ticks back to the S1 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA in about 30 min.

CL 09-13 (1 Min) 07.24.2013

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 09-13 (1 Min) 07.24.2013
Aug 092013
 

CL 09-13 (1 Min) 7_24_2013

7/24/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -2.5M
Actual: -2.8M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 106.46
1st Peak @ 106.90 – 1032 (2 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 106.57 – 1035 (5 min)
33 ticks

2nd Peak @ 106.95 – 1051 (21 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 104.86 – 1234 (124 min)
209 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching draw in inventories when a moderate draw was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw. Commercial oil inventories continue to fall from record highs, and the news a bit mixed. We saw a long spike of 44 ticks in 2 min that started below the 100/50 SMAs, then crossed the 200 SMA and the PP Pivot prior to leaving 14 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 106.57 with 1 tick of slippage, then place your target in between the PP Pivot and the 200 SMA for about 22 ticks, which would have easily filled on the :32 bar. After that it pulled back as traded sideways around the 200 SMA, then achieved a minor 2nd peak of 5 more ticks, but could not break the 107 area. Then it sold off heavily in the next 90 min for over 200 ticks, nearly reaching the S3 Mid Pivot.

CL 08-13 (1 Min) 07.17.2013

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 08-13 (1 Min) 07.17.2013
Aug 092013
 

CL 08-13 (1 Min) 7_17_2013

7/17/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.9M
Actual: -6.9M
DULL REACTION…NO FILL
Started @ 106.01
No breakout of 10 ticks in the first 13 sec

Notes: Another big draw in inventories when a moderate draw was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate gain. Commercial oil inventories continue to fall from record highs, but the gain in gas caused traders to pause. We saw a highly unusual dull situation on the CL where your 10 tick bracket would have sat idle for 13 seconds before filling long. In this case, close out the order after about 3-4 sec when there is no decisive spike. It eventually broke out and oscillated around the 106 mark. After you see initially dull movement and indecision, using a trap trade approach to sell the peaks and buy the dips is ok. Look to sell above the PP Pivot and buy around the OOD.

CL 08-13 (1 Min) 07.10.2013

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 08-13 (1 Min) 07.10.2013
Aug 092013
 

CL 08-13 (1 Min) 7_10_2013

Caption for 7/10:
7/10/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -2.9M
Actual: -9.9M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 105.05
1st Peak @ 105.73 – 1032 (2 min)
68 ticks

Reversal to 105.33 – 1035 (5 min)
40 ticks

2nd Peak @ 105.99 – 1051 (21 min)
94 ticks

Reversal to 105.30 – 1134 (64 min)
69 ticks

Notes: Big draw in inventories when a moderate draw was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw. Commercial oil inventories continue to fall from record highs, and the news was all bullish for oil to bring in the bulls. We saw a long spike of 68 ticks in 2 min that started on the R3 Mid Pivot, then crossed all 3 major Pivots and peaked on the R3 Pivot prior to leaving 18 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 105.20 with 5 ticks of slippage, then seen it hit 105.50 quickly and retreat to chop sideways. You could close out with a handful of ticks, or wait out a profit target of 25 ticks on the :32 bar with the SMAs all offering support. After hitting the R3 Pivot, it reversed for 40 ticks in 5 min, then geared up for a 2nd peak of 26 more ticks in the next 15 min, extending the HOD at the same time. Then it backed off and reversed for 69 ticks in the next 40 min to eclipse the 200 SMA.

CL 08-13 (1 Min) 07.03.2013

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 08-13 (1 Min) 07.03.2013
Aug 092013
 

CL 08-13 (1 Min) 7_3_2013

7/3/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -2.6M
Actual: -10.3M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 101.45
1st Peak @ 101.94 – 1031 (1 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 101.25 – 1040 (10 min)
69 ticks

2nd Peak @ 102.16 – 1101 (31 min)
71 ticks

Reversal to 100.52 – 1226 (116 min)
164 ticks

Notes: Big draw in inventories when a moderate draw was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw. Commercial oil inventories finally fell a decent margin from record highs, and the news was all bullish for oil to bring in the bulls initially. We saw a long spike of 49 ticks in 1 min that started in the fist of all 3 major SMAs on top of each other, then became very choppy on the :31 bar, eventually leaving about 30 ticks naked on the wick. As it was approaching the R3 Pivot, it was very over bought and reluctant to go much higher. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 101.62 with 7 ticks of slippage, then seen it swing wildly between 25 ticks of profit and 10 ticks in the red. A profit target of 25 or less would have filled. After the :31 bar, it chopped then fell for a 69 tick total reversal in 10 min, briefly crossing the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it rallied for a 2nd peak of only 22 more ticks 20 min later. Finally the bears came in to drive a reversal of 164 ticks in the next 90 min back to the R2 Pivot.

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