1/30/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 2.9M
Actual: 5.9M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 97.61
1st Peak @ 97.48 – 1031 (1 min)
13 ticks
Reversal to 97.83 – 1033 (3 min)
35 ticks
2nd Peak @ 97.34 – 1037 (7 min)
27 ticks
Reversal to 97.82 – 1107 (37 min)
48 ticks
Notes: Large gain in crude inventories, while gasoline saw a small drop and distillates saw a moderate drop. This prompted a small short move of only 13 ticks that crossed no SMAs or Pivots. This is a case where the large gain in crude offset the healthy drop in distillates to present a strong tug of war. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 97.50. Then you would have seen it bob between 2-10 ticks in the red for about 20 sec before it popped up more and would have your stop loss. In this case, set up a buy limit at your entry and move the stop loss down to about 10 ticks away. One of them would have filled. Then it reversed briefly and ran into resistance with all 3 SMAs, so it fell for a 2nd peak of only 27 ticks. Then the final reversal spent 30 min chopping upward to eclipse the 200 SMA.