Apr 202013

CL 03-13 (1 Min) 1_28_2013

1/28/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.8%
Core Actual:1.3%
Previous revision:-0.4% to1.2% Core
Regular Forecast: 1.8%
Regular Actual:4.6%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.8%
Started @ 96.12
1st Peak @ 96.25 – 0833 (3 min)
13 ticks

Final Peak @ 96.81 – 0901 (31 min)
69 ticks

Reverse to 95.47 – 1016 (106 min)
134 ticks

Notes: Report came in very positive overall with the current reports impressing while the previous revisions were overall slightly negative. The spike crossed the 50 SMA, but it was not a resistance barrier since the market had been trading above it until a few min before the report release. The report was delayed about 90 sec, so the spike did not occur until late on the :32 bar. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 96.18 with 1 tick of slippage and had an opportunity to close out with up to 6 ticks on the first few bars, or 20+ if you were patient and waited about 7 min. After the 1st peak, it struggled to climb above 96.25 with a short term barrier there, then eventually stepped higher for another 25 min to 96.81 and 69 total ticks right at the pit open. The final reversal was reacting to the overbought condition of the market and the report, selling off for 134 ticks in 75 min, nearly reaching the S1 Pivot.