May 052013

CL 05-13 (1 Min)  3_28_2013

3/28/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 340K
Actual: 357K
Started @ 96.27
1st Peak @ 96.48 – 0832 (2 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 96.33 – 0840 (10 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 96.78 – 0936 (66 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 96.47 – 0947 (77 min)
27 ticks

Notes:  Report came in strongly weaker than the forecast by 17K jobs, causing a 21 tick long spike on 2 bars.  As the report was released right after a large bearish move in the market, the spike hit resistance on the falling 13 SMA.  With JOBB, you would have filled long on the :31 bar at 96.33 with 1 tick of slippage.  With the decisive news and the oversold market, look to go for a few more ticks safely.  The dollar was falling to enhance the rally in the CL.  You could have exited with 10-12 ticks on the :31 or :32 bar.  If you stayed in for a longer term, look for a decisive 2nd peak after the pit open.  It had to fight through all of the SMAs, but the 200 SMA would have been a good target at about 96.65 for over 30 ticks.  After the 2nd peak was attained at 96.78, it reversed for 27 ticks in 11 min.