3/28/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 340K
Actual: 357K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 96.27
1st Peak @ 96.48 – 0832 (2 min)
21 ticks
Reversal to 96.33 – 0840 (10 min)
15 ticks
2nd Peak @ 96.78 – 0936 (66 min)
51 ticks
Reversal to 96.47 – 0947 (77 min)
27 ticks
Notes: Report came in strongly weaker than the forecast by 17K jobs, causing a 21 tick long spike on 2 bars. As the report was released right after a large bearish move in the market, the spike hit resistance on the falling 13 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the :31 bar at 96.33 with 1 tick of slippage. With the decisive news and the oversold market, look to go for a few more ticks safely. The dollar was falling to enhance the rally in the CL. You could have exited with 10-12 ticks on the :31 or :32 bar. If you stayed in for a longer term, look for a decisive 2nd peak after the pit open. It had to fight through all of the SMAs, but the 200 SMA would have been a good target at about 96.65 for over 30 ticks. After the 2nd peak was attained at 96.78, it reversed for 27 ticks in 11 min.