5/1/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.2M
Actual: 6.7M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 91.00
1st Peak @ 90.35 – 1033 (3 min)
65 ticks
Reversal to 90.86 – 1105 (35 min)
51 ticks
2nd Peak @ 90.11 – 1158 (88 min)
89 ticks
Reversal to 91.03 – 1317 (167 min)
92 ticks
Notes: Large gain in crude inventories when a smaller gain was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw and distillates saw a small draw. Commercial oil inventories continue to be categorized as above their upper limit. This caused a short move of 65 ticks that bottomed on the :33 bar. The initial spike used the 100 and 50 SMAs as resistance to propel the move, then crossed the S3 Pivot and extended the LOD 27 ticks. Then the reversal took over to reclaim 51 ticks in about 30 min up to the 100 SMA. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 90.87 with 3 ticks of slippage. Look to exit at about 90.62 with the LOD and S3 Pivot. The :32 bar would have crashed through there giving you 25 ticks. After the initial reversal, it stepped down to a 2nd Peak of 24 more ticks about 90 min after the report, using the 50 SMA as resistance. Then it reversed for 92 ticks in about 80 min crossing all 3 majors SMAs and the S3 Pivot.