11/7/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 0.2K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 10.7K
Previous Revision: +1.0K to 15.5K
Rate Forecast: 5.5%
Rate Actual: 5.4%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0362
1st Peak @ 1.0397 – 1434 (4 min)
35 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0402 – 1527 (57 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 1.0382 – 1606 (96 min)
20 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.0364 – 1814 (224 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Decently positive report that exceeded the forecast on jobs created with the unemployment rate holding steady at 0.1%, but better than the forecast, and a small upward revision to the previous report caused a healthy long spike of 35 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.0386 with 16 ticks of slippage. After the fill you would have seen it seesaw between 1.0371 and 1.0390. If you were filled on the spike above 1.0386, you would have been stopped out on the drop to 1.0371. On the following 3 bars, it reclaimed the level of the 1st peak and 1 more tick, then it surrendered 10 ticks before heading for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks about 1 hr later. I set my sell limit at 1.0394 (2 ticks below the 1st peak) and my order filled on the :32 bar for a 7 tick profit. The spike had to cross all 3 of the major SMAs while starting at the S1 Pivot, crossing the PP Pivot, and peaking at the R1 Pivot. After the 2nd peak, the reversal was able to reclaim 20 ticks in 40 min and 38 ticks to the S1 Pivot in a little less than 3 hrs.

10/10/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (1430 HI time / 2030 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 5.1K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 14.5K
Previous Revision: -0.3K to -9.1K
Rate Forecast: 5.3%
Rate Actual: 5.4%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0171
1st Peak @ 1.0197 – 1431 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.0183 – 1434 (4 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0211 – 1450 (20 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 1.0191 – 1510 (40 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Mostly positive report that exceeded the forecast on jobs created with the unemployment rate increasing 0.1% due to 40,000 people joining the labor force, and a small downward revision to the previous report caused a moderate long spike of 26 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.0179 with 1 tick of slippage. After the fill you would have seen a quick pop to 1.0197 in 3 sec, then a retreat and hovering between 1.0180 and 1.0190 area. The increase in the rate caused the initial reluctance to go long, but after the reason was understood, it continued to rally. I set my sell limit at 1.0196 (1 tick below the 1st peak) and my order filled on the :32 bar for a 17 tick profit. All of the major SMAs were already below the trade action at the origin, so it only crossed the PP Pivot on the spike, while the 2nd peak eclipsed the R1 Pivot for another 14 ticks in 20 min. The reversal was able to garner 20 ticks in 20 min after the 2nd peak.

8/8/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 10.2K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 14.0K
Previous Revision: -1.3K to -28.3K
Rate Forecast: 5.3%
Rate Actual: 5.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0530
1st Peak @ 1.0558 – 1531 (1 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.0538 – 1532 (2 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0566 – 1601 (31 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 1.0550 – 1617 (47 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Mildly positive report that exceeded the forecast on jobs created and the unemployment rate with a small downward revision to the previous report caused a moderate long spike of 28 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.0544 with 5-6 ticks of slippage. After the fill you would have seen a quick pop to 1.0558 in 3 sec, a fall to 1.0535 1 sec later, then a rebound and hover between 1.0544 and 1.0548. Close out there with a handful of ticks. Without a major delta from the forecast, the smaller reaction is normal. All of the major SMAs were already below the trade action at the origin, so it only crossed the R1 Pivot on the spike, while the 2nd peak eclipsed the R2 Pivot. The reversal was only able to rebound for 16 ticks in 47 min, but the reversal between the peaks was slightly stronger at 20 ticks. For 2 hrs after the reversal, it traded sideways with low volume oscillating around the 50 SMA

7/11/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 0.2K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: -27.0K
Previous Revision: -11.1K to 27.8K
Rate Forecast: 5.2%
Rate Actual: 5.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0178
1st Peak @ 1.0134 – 1534 (4 min)
44 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0119 – 1556 (26 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 1.0139 – 1656 (86 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Very Strong negative report that fell short of the forecast with a sizeable downward revision to the previous strong report caused a healthy short spike. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.0170 with 3-4 ticks of slippage, then had an easy opportunity to capture at least 20 ticks. All of the major SMAs were already above the trade action at the origin, so it only crossed the PP and S1 Pivots on the spike, while the 2nd peak eclipsed the S2 Pivot. The reversal was only able to rebound for 20 ticks in 49 min. Then after testing the 1.0139 area 2 more times, it continued to step short for several hours to a low of 1.0040 as the dollar rallied overnight.