Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 2.5.2014

Feb 242014

2/5/2014 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
Trade Bal
Forecast: -0.27B
Actual: 0.47B
Previous Revision: +0.20B to 0.08B
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.8912 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.8896 – 1930:04 (1 min)
)))-16 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8946 – 1931:04 (2 min)
)))50 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.8930 – 1933 (3 min)
16 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.8959 – 1943 (13 min)
63 ticks

Pullback to 0.8939 – 2046 (76 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8897 (below the OOD/HOD and above the 200 SMA) / 0.8887 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8929 (on the R2 Pivot) / 0.8937 (No SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Retail Sales report matched the forecast with no previous revision, while the Trade Balance report strongly exceeded the forecast by 0.74B, with a sizeable upward previous report revision. This caused a dip downward of 16 ticks that quickly reversed course after hitting the 200 SMA, OOD and LOD to nearly reach the R3 Mid Pivot just after the :31 bar expired. Your inner tier long entry should have filled then given you about 30 ticks on the reversal long if you left it unchanged. If you moved it further up, as many as 50 ticks could have been captured easily. After the top was established, it pulled back 16 ticks on the next 2 bars before gearing up for an extended reversal of 13 more ticks as it eclipsed the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it traded sideways above the R3 Mid Pivot and eventually retreated to the 100 SMA about an hour later.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 2.6.2014

RBA Monetary Policy Comments Off

Feb 252014

2/6/2014 Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.8924
1st Peak @ 0.8944 – 1931 (1 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.8952 – 1933 (3 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 0.8901 – 2017 (47 min)
51 ticks

Notes: The Reserve Bank of Australia announced growth in Australia’s major trading partners appears to have remained at around its long-term average rate. This caused a large long move was relatively tame. The long spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot for 20 ticks on the :31 bar. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your order would have filled long at 0.8928 with 1 tick of slippage then ratcheted upward for 20 ticks just before the bar expired. Once again we saw a larger reaction, although smaller than 3 months ago. A conservative profit target of any value would have easily filled, but the PP Pivot would have been a perfect exit for about 14 ticks. After the peak, it struggled briefly with the PP Pivot before gaining another 8 ticks and crossing the R1 Mid Pivot for the 2nd peak. Then it chopped sideways before falling 51 ticks while crossing the S2 Pivot about 45 min later.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 1.30.2014

Quarterly PPI Comments Off

Feb 172014

1/30/2014 Quarterly PPI (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.2%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE/REVERSE)
Anchor Point @ 0.8781 (last price and recent avg)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.8773 – 1930:04 (1 min)
-8 ticks

Reversal to 0.8784 – 1931:23 (2 min)
11 ticks

Pullback to 0.8772 – 1933:42 (4 min)
12 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.8798 – 1956 (26 min)
26 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8773 (just below the 50 SMA) / 0.8766 (just below the 100 SMA/R1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8790 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot ) / 0.8797 (just below the HOD/R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in 0.5% worse than expected, but this caused a surprisingly muted reaction. It initially fell 8 ticks, crossing the R1 Pivot and 50 SMA. With the Trap Trade setup, your inside long entry would have been barely filled (if you used 0.8773 – anything lower would not have filled). Then you would have had an opportunity to capture up to 8-10 ticks with ease on the quick reversal about 80 sec later. After the quick reversal, it pulled back to 0.8772 on the :34 bar, then reversed for 26 ticks in the next 22 min to nearly reach the R2 Pivot.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 1.15.2014

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Feb 082014

1/15/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (1930 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 10.3K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: -22.6K
Previous Revision: -5.6K to 15.4K
Rate Forecast: 5.8%
Rate Actual: 5.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 0.8860
1st Peak @ 0.8797 – 1931 (1 min)
63 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8762 – 2009 (39 min)
98 ticks

Reversal to 0.8783 – 2015 (45 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report that fell short of the forecast on jobs created by nearly 33K while the unemployment rate remain unchanged, with a sizeable downward revision to the previous report caused a short (initially choppy) but eventually stable and sustainable spike of 63 ticks that peaked on the :31 bar for 63 ticks. It started below the major SMAs and crossed the S3 Mid Pivot initially, then pulled back to the S1 Pivot, before falling and settling down near the S3 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.8840 with 12 ticks of slippage, then the 15 tick stop would have gotten nicked on the retracement 1 sec later. Due to the slippage and retracement, we will recommend limit orders next time and leave the order open after missed so that it can be filled on the retracement. After the :31 bar, the bearish sentiment continued to be overwhelming as we only saw a 14 tick reversal that was short lived, before it turned into a downward fan that eventually reached the area of the S4 Pivot for another 35 ticks in the next 38 min. Then it retreated 21 ticks in the next 6 min to the S4 Mid Pivot. After that it traded sideways between the S4 Mid Pivot and LOD for several hours.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 1.21.2014

Quarterly CPI Comments Off

Feb 082014

1/21/2014 Quarterly CPI / Trimmed Mean CPI (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.8%
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.8757
1st Peak@ 0.8822 – 2032 (2 min)
65 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8838 – 1949 (19 min)
81 ticks

Reversal to 0.8819 – 2037 (67 min)
19 ticks

Notes: This report was strongly positive, exceeding the forecast on both parts of the report by 0.3%. This resulted in a quick spike that ratcheted upward methodically for 65 ticks culminating on the :32 bar. The initial burst crossed all 3 major SMAs and hit the R1 Mid Pivot before retreating briefly. Then it continued rallying with minimal abatement to nearly reach the R3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and the recommended limit order, you would have filled long at 0.8774 with 10 ticks of slippage. Keep an eye on the range chart and wait until you see the ratcheting turn into hovering. The first stretch of hovering was between about 5 and 20 sec in between the R2 Mid Pivot and the R3 Pivot. You could have moved your stop up to about 0.8795 and place a target at about 0.8808 or let it ride with the stop at 0.8795, then move it up to about 0.8804 later in the bar when it hovered higher. There would have been a minimum of 25 ticks able to be captured with ease, and as many as 45 ticks. After the peak, it hovered below the R3 Mid Pivot for about 15 min, then climbed for the final peak of 16 more ticks. After a double top about 15 min later, it reversed for 19 ticks, crossing the 50 SMA and R3 Mid Pivot about 45 min later.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 1.6.2014

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jan 142014

1/6/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Forecast: -0.30B
Actual: -0.12B
Previous Revision: +0.17B to -0.36B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.8918
1st Peak @ 0.8926 – 1931 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.8915 – 1931 (1 min)
-11 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.8887 – 1940 (10 min)
39 ticks

Pullback to 0.8911 – 2013 (43 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded expectations with a moderate previous report upward revision. This caused a surprising and unfortunate indecisive reaction with high volatility as it did 3 whipsaws in the first 27 sec. We saw repeated swings of 11 ticks between the LOD and OOD just above the 3 major SMAs. With JOBB your order would have filled long at about 0.8924 with 3 ticks of slippage, then you would have been stopped out immediately on the rebound at about 0.8917 for a 7 tick loss. After the :31 bar, it continued to fall dramatically in the next 9 min for another 28 ticks, crossing the S2 Mid Pivot and extending the LOD. Then it pulled back for 24 ticks in the next 33 min.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 12.11.2013

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Dec 202013

12/11/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (1930 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 10.3K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 21.0K
Previous Revision: -1.8K to -0.7K
Rate Forecast: 5.8%
Rate Actual: 5.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9047
1st Peak @ 0.9089 – 1930 (0 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 0.9021 – 2000 (30 min)
68 ticks

Notes: Moderately positive report that exceeded the forecast on jobs created by 10.7K while the unemployment rate remain unchanged, with a minimal downward revision to the previous report caused an early long (initially choppy) but eventually stable spike of 42 ticks peaked on the :30 bar and left 17 ticks on the wick of the :31 bar naked. It started at 19:29:55 (5 sec early) and crossed the PP Pivot and then swung between the top and the origin with a span of over 40 ticks. With JOBB, you should have cancelled the order with the premature move, but if you did not, the strategy would have been unable to set up and given you errors. After about 7 sec into the :31 bar, it settled down and established a peak at about 0.9080, then began a slow developing reversal, crossing all 3 major SMAs, the OOD, and S1 Mid Pivot for 68 ticks in 30 min. After that, it continued to step lower and pullback a few ticks while it trended lower.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 11.6.2013

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Dec 202013

11/6/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (1930 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 10.3K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: -1.1K
Previous Revision: -5.8K to 3.3K
Rate Forecast: 5.7%
Rate Actual: 5.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9501
1st Peak @ 0.9450 – 1931 (1 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 0.9469 – 1933 (3 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9443 – 2006 (36 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 0.9455 – 2034 (64 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Moderately negative report that fell short of the forecast on jobs created by 9.2K while the unemployment rate remain unchanged, with a sizable downward revision to the previous report caused a short (initially choppy) but eventually stable spike of 51 ticks peaked on the :31 bar and left 16 ticks on the tail naked. It nearly reached the S3 Pivot and bounced back to struggle with the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.9490 with only 3 ticks of slippage. A profit target of anything up to 40 ticks would have filled, or if you waited until later in the bar, about 25 ticks could have been captured. After the 1st peak, it reversed for 19 ticks in 2 min, then fell for a slow but steady 2nd peak of 7 more ticks in the next 33 min as it crossed the S3 Pivot. Then it could only reverse for 12 ticks as volume dried up and the falling SMAs kept it pinned down.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 12.4.2013

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Dec 202013

12/4/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Forecast: -0.38B
Actual: -0.53B
Previous Revision: -0.01B to -0.27B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9023
1st Peak range: 0.9013 to 0.9033
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9008 – 1936 (6 min)
15 ticks
Reversal to 0.9043 – 2028 (58 min)
35 ticks

Notes: Report mildly fell short of expectations with a negligible previous report revision. This caused a surprising and unfortunate indecisive reaction with high volatility. We saw repeated swings of 20 ticks from the low to the high of the bar, then it settled lower at the bar close. With JOBB your order would have filled short at about 0.9017 with 3 ticks of slippage, then you would have been stopped out immediately on the rebound at about 0.9028 for a 11 tick loss. After the :31 bar, it chopped lower to achieve a 2nd peak of 15 ticks 5 min later as it hit the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 35 ticks in a little less than an hour, crossing all 3 major SMAs. With no apparent cause for the indecisive reaction, this is concerning.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 12.2.2013

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Dec 192013

12/2/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.9%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9106
1st Peak @ 0.9123 – 1931 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.9106 – 1936 (6 min)
17 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9077 – 2025 (55 min)
46 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.1%, with a small upward previous report revision. This caused a safe and decisive long spike for 17 ticks. The peak crossed the PP Pivot and no SMAs as the market was already trending slightly upward. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.9112 with 2 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit at about 0.9120 as it hovered in that area near the top on two occasions for a profit of 8 ticks. After the :31 bar, it started reversing and returned to the origin and the 50 SMA in the next 5 min as the resistance of the PP Pivot weighed in. After a brief attempt for a 2nd peak that fell short, it fell into an extended reversal for 46 ticks in the next 45 min, crossing the S1 Mid Pivot. After that it retreated back to the S1 Mid Pivot and traded sideways as volume dried up.

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