Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 6.4.2013

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Jun 092013

6/4/2013 Quarterly Advance GDP (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9629
1st Peak@ 0.9642 – 2131 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.9596 – 2132 (2 min)
-46 ticks

Pullback to 0.9646 – 2240 (70 min)
50 ticks

Notes: Report fell moderately short of the forecast with no previous revision. This caused an indecisive reaction with a small initial long spike in the wrong direction for 13 ticks followed by the true short spike of 46 ticks. This is unfortunately becoming more common these days with the larger impacting reports on the 6A where we see an initial move in the wrong direction. The long move crossed the 100 / 200 SMAs and eclipsed the OOD, then the short move fell to nearly reach the S1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.9635 with 1 tick of slippage, then been stopped with high slippage for about a 25 tick loss. Depending on your broker, feed, and internet speed, you might have seen additional entries trigger the knife switch due to the quick reversal. After the 1st peak, it chopped sideways for about 20 min, then settled into a slow deliberate rebound that reclaimed 46 ticks in the next hour.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 6.4.2013

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Jun 092013

6/2/2013 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (0030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.75%
Actual: 2.75%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9705
1st Peak @ 0.9722 – 0031 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.9680 – 0031 (1 min)
42 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9730 – 0034 (4 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 0.9706 – 0043 (13 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Australia’s central bank left interest rates unchanged as expected due to the surprise rate cut one month earlier, citing a wait and see approach, noting that interest rates remains relatively high and they have room to cut further if necessary. This caused a small and unsustainable long move of 17 ticks that hovered around the 200 SMA and PP Pivot for about 20 sec before reversing strongly for 42 ticks to eclipse the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 0.9714 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it hover within 7 ticks on either side of your fill point. Setup a sell limit at 0.9718 just above the PP Pivot and move up your stop loss to about 10 ticks to exit with 4 ticks. After the quick reversal, it popped back up for a 2nd peak of 25 ticks on the :34 bar, then it reversed for 24 ticks back to the 100 SMA in 9 min. After that volume died and it traded sideways near the PP Pivot for almost 2 hrs. I took an alternate approach to trap trade this report after several central bank news reports have been indecisive lately and successfully secured 18 ticks conservatively with ease. Please see the “trap trade” video under the Education tab on the left side.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 6.2.2013

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Jun 082013

6/2/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9610
1st Peak @ 0.9635 – 2131 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 0.9602 – 2131 (1 min)
-33 ticks

Pullback to 0.9626 – 2145 (15 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 0.9589 – 2203 (33 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Report barely fell short of the forecast by 0.1%, with no previous report revision while a concurrently released report that is normally a yawner was a strong positive and caused an indecisive reaction. This caused a 25 tick long spike on the first bar in 2 sec that eclipsed the R2 Pivot and extended the HOD, then a reversal of 33 ticks that followed 3 sec later that crossed the 50/100 SMAs and nearly reached the 200 SMA. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.9620 with 6 ticks of slippage, then been stopped with a 12 tick loss including 2 ticks of slippage. After the :01 bar, it was stuck between the 50 and 200 SMAs for 4 min, then broke out long to reach 0.9626. Then it fell 37 ticks for a stronger reversal below the OOD, before pulling back up to 0.9618 about 1 hr after the report. Then volume dried up and it traded sideways. As is typical on an indecisive report due to mixed news, it is safe to buy the dips and sell the rips. This is the first indecisive reaction on this report since OCT, but it had cause for misbehavior and remains a safe report.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 5.20.2013

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Jun 022013

5/20/2013 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.9751
1st Peak @ 0.9733 – 2131 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.9759 – 2133 (3 min)
26 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9796 – 2326 (116 min)
63 ticks

Notes: Minutes caused a short spike of 18 ticks that crossed the S2 Mid Pivot and extended the LOD 10 ticks lower. It was unsustainable and left 12 ticks on the tail naked, then continued the reversal on the following 2 bars for a total of 26 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short with 1 tick of slippage at about 0.9747, then had an opportunity after it dropped to exit with 10-12 ticks before it reversed. As the Cash rate 2 weeks ago had a surprise cut and caused a large short move, this report moving short first matched the form overall. The extended reversal was able to capture 63 ticks in nearly 2 hrs after the report.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 5.9.2013

RBA Monetary Policy Comments Off

May 202013

5/9/2013 Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.0052
1st Peak @ 1.0045 – 2131 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.0063 – 2136 (6 min)
18 ticks

Notes: The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its inflation outlook and reiterated its forecast for “below trend” growth this year, reflecting an elevated currency, a crest in resource investment, and fiscal tightening. This caused a dull and unsustainable 7 tick short move that crossed the 100 SMA and left 5 ticks on the tail naked. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your order would have filled short at 1.0048 with 1 tick of slippage then would have retreated and stayed 1-2 ticks in the red. You could leave the 5 tick stop alone or move it down about 2 ticks to just above the 100 SMA to absorb a 3-5 tick loss. After the :32 bar, it reversed quickly back up to cross the 200 SMA and nearly reach the OOD for 18 ticks in 5 min.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 5.8.2013

AUS Employment change Comments Off

May 192013

5/8/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (2130 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 11.5K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 50.1K
Previous Revision: +5.0K to -31.1K
Rate Forecast: 5.6%
Rate Actual: 5.5%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.0147
1st Peak @ 1.0135 – 2130 (0 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.0265 – 2131 (1 min)
130 ticks

Notes: Strongly positive report that greatly exceeded the forecast on jobs created with the unemployment rate falling by 0.1%, and a moderate upward revision to the previous report caused another manipulated indecisive scenario at the onset. Upon seeing the volatility and wild swings about 18 sec before the :30 bar expired, disable the JOBB strategy via the control center tab. If you let it play out, you would have been filled short and stopped long with about a 22 tick loss including 7 ticks of slippage. The premature volatility is unsettling but a trigger to easily back out. The long move was true, but the additional 50 tick spike long about 17 sec into the :31 bar and crash 10 sec later is also cause for concern. After the wild :31 bar, the price action traded in a narrow range mostly below the R3 Mid Pivot. With 2 erratic reports in a row, this report is no longer safe and reliable.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 5.7.2013

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

May 192013

5/7/2013 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (0030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.00%
Actual: 2.75%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0209
1st Peak @ 1.0150 – 0032 (2 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 1.0168 – 0033 (3 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Australia’s central bank cut its key interest rate by 25 BP to a record low of 2.75 percent to boost economic growth, in a move that surprised many analysts after signs of weakness in China’s economy and softer than expected inflation data. This caused a large short move of 59 ticks due to the surprise cut that bottomed on the S3 Pivot as the :32 bar was starting. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.0198 with 4 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall and hover in a tight range at the bottom of the bar. As the initial low hit 1.0154, Wait until the :31 bar expires and then look to exit at or above the S3 Pivot at 1.0151 with about 45 ticks. After the peak, it reversed quickly for 18 ticks on the :33 bar, finding resistance at the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it chopped sideways between the S3 Pivot and S3 Mid Pivot for about an hour. As this was unexpected, it completely changed the trading range of the market by about 50 ticks to the downside.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 5.6.2013

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

May 192013

5/6/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.20B
Actual: 0.31B
Previous Revision: +0.07B to -0.11B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.0213
1st Peak @ 1.0221 – 2131 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.0203 – 2131 (1 min)
-18 ticks

Notes: First, the reason AUS Trade Balance was indecisive was due to a positive Trade balance result and a concurrent extremely negative Quarterly HPI report that had the biggest offset from the forecast in several years. Normally the HPI report is a yawner and has little effect on the market. However, with a mildly positive Trade Balance with a normally larger share of influence coupled with an epically disappointing low influence report, they balanced each other and caused indecision. Here is a reconstruction of what happened:

1. The spike initially went long and filled your long entry with about 2-3 ticks of slippage at 1.0218 with the # of contracts you desired. 2. The spike reversed and headed short while the stop loss from your ATM strategy attached to the long entry was setting up during the brief overlap while the opposite short entry was still on the chart before the OCO function triggered. This caused both the stop and the short entry to fill with about 0-3 ticks of slippage at 1.0210. So your initial fill was stopped for about -8 ticks with the # of contracts you intended to trade and you had an additional # equal to your initial lot fill as short positions at 1.0210. 3. The 5 tick stop loss for the 1.0210 short entry tried to apply at 1.0215 as the market was rebounding long, but was disallowed by NinjaTrader as it was below the market price at that time. 4. Then the knife switch logic in JOBB saw that both entry orders were filled and attempted to flatten all open orders, resulting in closing out your additional short positions for an additional loss of about 9 ticks. So you should have lost about 17 total ticks on this report.

BOTTOM LINE:
This is the second time this scenario has happened (German IFO on 3/22/13 is the other occurrence) where it spikes one way and fills the entry, then reverses during the narrow window when both the stop loss and the opposite entry are on the chart together. The overlap is only about 3/10 of a second according to the programmer, but necessary to have no gap in protection. Fortunately this has only happened twice in about 15 months of JOBB trading over 500 reports. The AUS Trade Balance remains a safe report, but the concurrence of abnormal news caused an undesirable situation this time.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 5.5.2013

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

May 192013

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 4.15.2013

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

May 052013

4/15/2013 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0289
1st Peak @ 1.0298 – 2131 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.0277 – 2134 (4 min)
21 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.0267 – 2155 (25 min)
31 ticks

Notes: Minutes caused a long spike of only 9 ticks that crossed the 13 and 20 SMAs to match the high set just a few min earlier. It was unsustainable and left 7 ticks on the wick naked, then fell on the following 3 bars for a total of 21 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long with no slippage at about 1.0292, then had an opportunity after it popped up and fell to close out near breakeven in between 2 ticks loss or gain in the latter part of the bar. As the Cash rate 2 weeks ago was indecisive, spiking long first then reversing short, this report matched the form overall. The reversal was able to capture 21 ticks in 4 min to eclipse the S4 Pivot, then fell another 10 ticks 20 min later.

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