6A 06-13 (1 Min) 3.18.2013

 RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes  Comments Off on 6A 06-13 (1 Min) 3.18.2013
May 052013
 

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 3_18_2013

3/18/2013 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2030 EDT)
Forecast:  n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0326
1st Peak @ 1.0318 – 2031 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.0335 – 2049 (19 min)
17 ticks

Notes:  Minutes caused a short spike of only 8 ticks that crossed all 3 SMAs and the S1 Pivot and LOD.  Due to several support barriers, it could not sustain the drop and reversed on the latter part of the :32 bar.   With JOBB, you would have filled short with no slippage at about 1.0322, then had an opportunity to close out with 3 ticks at the S1 Pivot before it reversed strongly on the following bars.  The support barriers were too much to sustain the fall.  This followed the same pattern as the Cash Rate from 2 weeks ago, going short, then reversing quickly and strongly past the origin.  The reversal was able to capture 17 ticks in 19 min to cross the PP Pivot and extend the HOD 3 ticks.  After that it slowly fell again in the next few hours.

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 2.18.2013

 RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes  Comments Off on 6A 03-13 (1 Min) 2.18.2013
May 052013
 

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 2_18_2013

2/18/2013 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1930 EST)
Forecast:  n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0292
1st Peak @ 1.0282 – 1931 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.0310 – 1942 (12 min)
28 ticks

Notes:  Minutes caused a short spike of only 10 ticks that crossed the 100 and 200 SMAs and the R1 Pivot.  With the LOD and PP looming a few ticks below, it could not sustain the drop and reversed after about 13 sec.   With JOBB, you would have filled short with no slippage at about 1.0387, then had an opportunity to close out with 2-4 ticks before it reversed 13-20 sec after the report.  The support barriers were too much to sustain the fall.  As the minutes were digested over time, the market traded sideways for the next 5 min or so just above the 100 SMA, then executed a quick and strong reversal for a total of 28 ticks extending the HOD and crossing the R2 Pivot.  After that it pulled back to the 50 SMA and chopped sideways on top of the 50 SMA.

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 3.5.2013

 Quarterly GDP  Comments Off on 6A 03-13 (1 Min) 3.5.2013
May 052013
 

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 3_5_20136A 03-13 (2 Range) 3_5_2013

3/5/2012 Quarterly Advance GDP (1930 EST)
Forecast:  0.6%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.7%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.0255
1st Peak@ 1.0268 – 1931 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.0248 – 1931 (1 min)
-20 ticks

Settle @ 1.0263 – 1931 (1 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.0281 – 2018 (48 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 1.0266 – 2045 (75 min)
15 ticks

Notes:  Report matched the forecast with a moderate upward previous revision.  This caused an indecisive reaction when a large quarterly report with impact came in as expected.  With the market trending upward before the report, the initial spike went long for 13 ticks, then reversed short for 20 ticks to cross the 50/100 SMAs and the R1 Pivot, then pulled back long to settle 8 ticks above the origin.  With JOBB, you would have filled long at 1.0264 with 4 ticks of slippage.  Then you would have been stopped out immediately on the reversal for a 15 tick loss.  After the :31 bar settled, it achieved a slow developing final peak of 36 total ticks about 45 min later to extend the HOD and cross the R2 Pivot.  Then the reversal fell 15 ticks in the next 25 min back to the 100 SMA.

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 2.7.2013

 RBA Monetary Policy  Comments Off on 6A 03-13 (1 Min) 2.7.2013
May 052013
 

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 2_7_2013

2/7/2013 Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement (1930 EST)
Forecast:  n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0245
1st Peak @ 1.0231  – 1931 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reverse to 1.0245 – 1939 (9 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0227 – 2020 (50 min)
18 ticks

Final Reversal to 1.0248 – 2102 (92 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Citing more positive economic development in recent months after a worse stint in earlier 2012, and further signs that the Chinese economy has stabilized, the RBA remains cautiously dovish, but has an optimistic outlook.  This caused a 14 tick short move that extended the LOD, and bottomed out above the S1 Pivot.  With JOBB, your order would have filled short at 1.0241 with no slippage then would have given you an opportunity to close out with about 7 ticks before it reversed long on the :32 bar.  After a quick reversal that reclaimed the entire spike, it trended lower and headed for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in the next 40 min to eclipse the S1 Pivot.  Then the final reversal achieved 21 ticks in 42 min.  The spike at 2107 was due to the release of the Chinese Trade Balance.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 4.10.2013

 AUS Employment change  Comments Off on 6A 06-13 (1 Min) 4.10.2013
May 052013
 

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 4_10_2013 6A 06-13 (2 Range) 4_10_2013

4/10/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (2130 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: -6.7K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: -36.1K
Previous Revision: +2.5K to 74.0K
Rate Forecast:  5.4%
Rate Actual: 5.6%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.0497
1st Peak @ 1.0518 –  2130 (0 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.0448 – 2131 (1 min)
70 ticks

Notes:  Strongly negative report that greatly fell short of the forecast on jobs created with the unemployment rate growing by 0.1%, and a small upward revision to the previous report caused an indecisive scenario.  This one was truly unique and very devastating as we saw a premature spike long just as the bracket was setting up at 3 sec before the :00 bar expired.  The long move took all of the bulls out of the market making the slippage on our stop very excessive.  With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.0503 with no slippage, then the reversal would have filled at 1.0471 with about 20 ticks of slippage.  At least the stop worked and held at that level as it continued dropping to 1.0448 and traded between the low and 1.0472 for the next several hours.  As disappointing as this was, it is an anomaly for this report, and all the different aspects made it a worst case scenario.

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 3.13.2013

 AUS Employment change  Comments Off on 6A 03-13 (1 Min) 3.13.2013
May 052013
 

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 3_13_20136A 03-13 (2 Range) 3_13_2013

3/13/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (2030 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 9.5K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 71.5K
Previous Revision: +2.7K to 13.1K
Rate Forecast:  5.5%
Rate Actual: 5.4%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0305
1st Peak @ 1.0366 –  2032 (2 min)
61 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0381 – 2102 (32 min)
76 ticks

Reversal to 1.0362 – 2146 (76 min)
19 ticks

Notes:  Strongly positive report that greatly exceeded the forecast on jobs created with the unemployment rate improving by 0.1%, and a small upward revision to the previous report caused a long spike of 61 ticks.  With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.0320 with 8 ticks of slippage.  After the fill you would have seen it blast off and cross the R1/R2 Pivots with ease.  As these reports will finish near the top of the bar and often eke out a few more ticks on the :32 bars, I exited at 1.0366 at the level of the top of the :31 bar for 44 ticks.  After a minor drawback, it achieved 15 ticks more on a 2nd peak 30 min later, using the first encounter with the 13/20 SMAs as a springboard to go long.  Then due to a very strong report, it only reversed for 19 ticks in 45 min as it briefly traded below the 50 SMA.

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 2.6.2013

 AUS Employment change  Comments Off on 6A 03-13 (1 Min) 2.6.2013
May 052013
 

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 2_6_2013 6A 03-13 (2 Range) 2_6_2013

2/6/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (1930 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 5.8K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 10.4K
Previous Revision: +1.7K to -3.8K
Rate Forecast:  5.5%
Rate Actual: 5.4%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0288
1st Peak @ 1.0303 –  1931 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 1.0269 – 1943 (13 min)
34 ticks

Notes:  Moderately positive report that exceeded the forecast on jobs created with the unemployment rate improving by 0.1%, and a small upward revision to the previous report caused a unusually small long spike of only 15 ticks.  With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.0298 with 3 ticks of slippage.  After the fill you would have seen it only give you a handful of ticks of profit as it flirted with the R1 Pivot.  Look to exit around 1.0301 at the R1 Pivot for 3 ticks.  The overall sentiment is still very bearish with the 6A, as it reversed quickly and greater than the spike on a positive report.  The reversal achieved 34 ticks in a quick 13 min, crossing all 3 SMAs and the PP Pivot with ease.  As volume was drying up, it drifted higher to the PP Pivot and the SMAs.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 4.2.13

 Cash Rate / RBA Statement  Comments Off on 6A 06-13 (1 Min) 4.2.13
May 042013
 

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 4_2_20136A 06-13 (2 Range) 4_2_2013

4/1/2013 RBA Rate Statement / Cash  Rate (2330 EDT)
Forecast:  3.00%
Actual: 3.00%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.0402
1st Peak @ 1.0420 – 2331 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.0390 – 2331 (1 min)
-30 ticks

Double Top @ 1.0420 – 2341/2349 (11/19 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 1.0395 – 0042 (72 min)
25 ticks

Notes:   With continued economic growth forecasts being below average, but downside risks abating and stabilizing in the near term, the RBA decided to leave rates unchanged at 3.00%.   This caused an indecisive scenario as the market rallied for 18 ticks, then fell 30 ticks by the end of the :31 bar.  With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.0410 with 1 tick of slippage, and then the reversal would have quickly taken you below Breakeven after only 6 sec.  You could either try to exit before it hit the stop loss for about 6-12 ticks loss, or it would have hit the 15 tick stop at about 31 sec into the bar.  After the indecisive reversal bottomed out, it climbed to double top at 1.0420 again 10 min later, then it reversed for 25 ticks in the next hour. Due to the overall upward trend, it would be safe to buy the dip when it eclipsed the 100 SMA, with a stop below the R2 Pivot, then sell inside of the previous top at about 1.0418.

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 3.4.2013

 Cash Rate / RBA Statement  Comments Off on 6A 03-13 (1 Min) 3.4.2013
May 042013
 

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 3_5_2013 6A 03-13 (2 Range) 3_4_2013

3/4/2012 RBA Rate Statement / Cash  Rate (2230 EST)
Forecast:  3.00%
Actual: 3.00%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0205
1st Peak @ 1.0184 – 2231 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.0219 – 2234 (4 min)
35 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.0233 – 2252 (22 min)
49 ticks

Notes:   With continued economic growth forecasts being below average, but downside risks abating in the near term, the RBA decided to leave rates unchanged.  This caused a quick short spike of 22 ticks to just above the LOD, then a reversal on the following bars.  With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.0197 with no slippage, then had a brief opportunity to capture 5-10 ticks between the 100/50 SMAs and the LOD.   Do not linger in your decision to exit on this trade more than the :31 bar as sharp reversals are common.  We saw a 35 ticks reversal in the next 3 min, then an extended reversal of 14 more ticks as it ratcheted higher in the next 20 min.  After that it retreated to the R2 Pivot and traded sideways.

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 2.4.2013

 Cash Rate / RBA Statement  Comments Off on 6A 03-13 (1 Min) 2.4.2013
May 042013
 

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 2_5_20136A 03-13 (2 Range) 2_4_2013

2/4/2012 RBA Rate Statement / Cash  Rate (2230 EST)
Forecast:  3.00%
Actual: 3.00%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0413
1st Peak @ 1.0435 – 2231 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 1.0381 – 2234 (4 min)
54 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.0360 – 2253 (23 min)
75 ticks

Notes:   With continued economic growth softening in Australia and abroad, but downside risks abating in the near term as the US avoided the fiscal cliff and Europe is less dire, the RBA decided to leave rates unchanged.  This caused a nearly indecisive scenario as the market rallied for 22 ticks and remained positive for 29 sec, then fell 54 ticks in the next 3.5 min.  With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.0425 with 5 ticks of slippage, then had a brief opportunity to retain a small amount of profit up until 10 sec into the bar.  Then you would have seen it hover between 4 and 12 ticks in the red.  Look to close out here or move your stop loss up to about 10 ticks in the red.  After the initial reversal, it rallied a bit to close the gap to the 13 SMA, then fell again for another 21 ticks through the S2 Pivot.  Then it traded sideways within a narrow lower range centered on the S2 Pivot.

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