Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 03 13 (1 Min) 01.16.13

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Jan 162013

1/16/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (1930 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 2.3K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: -5.5K
Previous Revision: +3.2K to 17.1K
Rate Forecast: 5.4%
Rate Actual: 5.4%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0518
1st Peak @ 1.0487 – 1931 (1 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 1.0509 – 2023 (53 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Moderately negative report that fell short of the forecast on jobs created with the unemployment rate holding steady at 5.4%, and a small upward revision to the previous report caused a healthy short spike of 31 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.0509 with 4 ticks of slippage. After the fill you would have seen it fall and bounce around between break even and 15 ticks of profit for about 5 sec. Then it settled down and headed lower as the :31 bar was expiring. I put my buy limit order at 1.0494, the low of the bar after the initial activity, and filled with 15 ticks. The spike crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs along with the PP and S1 Pivots, then bottomed out 3 ticks above the S2 Pivot as it extended the LOD by 20 ticks. Then it broke the trend of the last several months and did not attempt a 2nd peak. The reversal achieved 22 ticks in about 50 min, but garnered 17 ticks in 7 min, then struggling upward in the next several minutes through several SMAs and the S1 Pivot. As volume was drying up, it headed lower again after reaching the 100 SMA.

6A 03 13 (1 Min) 01.08.13

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Jan 082013

1/8/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0462
1st Peak @ 1.0440 – 1931 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 1.0450 – 1932 (2 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0433 – 1941 (11 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.0451 – 2044 (74 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report fell well short of the forecast, with no previous report revision. This caused a 22 tick short spike in 1 min that crossed all 3 major SMAs spread out along with the R1 Pivot, bottoming out between the 200 SMA and the PP Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at 1.0452 with 5 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to get about 10 ticks with ease. Due to the disappointing news, it was able to achieve a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks 10 min later, eclipsing the PP Pivot. Then it reversed for 18 ticks back up to the 200 SMA about 1 hr later. This report had a similar negative result (0.4 worse than expected) as last month (Dec), and nearly an identical reaction.

6A 03 13 (1 Min) 01.07.13

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jan 072013

1/7/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Forecast: -2.21B
Actual: -2.64B
Previous Revision: -0.35B to -2.44B
DULL REACTION then DOWnward fan
Started @ 1.0460
1st Peak @ 1.0452 – 1431 (1 min)
8 ticks

Final Peal @ 1.0423 – 1751 (201 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Report moderately disappointed along with a sizable downward revision to the previous report. This caused a 8 tick initial spike on the :31 bar that crossed the 100 SMA then hit the R1 Pivot and 200 SMA and could go no lower. After the initial short spike, it stepped lower in a slow, but deliberate manner to manage 37 total ticks in nearly 3.5 hrs. It is not clear if the entire short move was due to the sentiment of the report as it usually has mild influence. If so, the reaction pattern may be shifting with this report. With JOBB your order would have filled short at about 1.0455, with 2 ticks of slippage, then you would have only been able to get 1-2 ticks unless you were patient and stayed in longer than 8 min. As this was a dull reaction, I moved my stop loss down to 1 tick above the 100 (1 tick loss) and closed out with 1 tick of profit. There are 2 reversals during the downward move that reclaimed 10-11 ticks, but nothing significant after the bottom was reached.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 12.06.12

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Dec 062012

12/6/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Forecast: -2.15B
Actual: -2.09B
Previous Revision: +0.04B to -1.42B
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.0476
1st Peak @ 1.0469 – 1431 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.0479 – 1448 (18 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report basically matched the forecast, with a negligible previous report revision. This caused a predictable dull reaction of only 7 ticks that hit all 3 SMAs and could go no lower. With JOBB your order would have filled short at 1.0472, then you would have only been able to get 1 tick before it reversed on the :32 bar. As this was a dull reaction, I moved my stop loss down to breakeven and closed out there. The reversal reclaimed 10 ticks in the following 17 min to nick the PP Pivot.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 12.05.12

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Dec 052012

12/5/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 0.2K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 13.9K
Previous Revision: -0.5K to 10.2K
Rate Forecast: 5.5%
Rate Actual: 5.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0440
1st Peak @ 1.0470 – 1431 (1 min)
30 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0474 – 1442 (12 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 1.0459 – 1456 (26 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Strongly positive report that exceeded the forecast on jobs created with the unemployment rate improving by 0.3%, and a small downward revision to the previous report caused a healthy long spike of 30 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.0452 with 5 ticks of slippage. After the fill you would have seen it pop up to 1.0470, then retreat and hover between 1.0457 and 1.0466. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot near the origin, and the R1 Pivot at the top of the spike. In the following 11 min, it tried to punch through the R1 Pivot and eventually succeeded for 4 more ticks. I placed a sell limit 1 tick higher than the 1st peak and filled with a 19 tick profit. After the 2nd peak, it reversed for 15 ticks in 14 min. Then it was stuck to the 50 SMA for the next hour and traded sideways.

6A 12 12 (2 Range) 12.05.12

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Dec 052012

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 12.04.12

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Dec 042012

12/4/2012 Quarterly Advance GDP (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: none
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.0467
1st Peak@ 1.0459 – 1431 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.0469 – 1435 (5 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0456 – 1505 (35 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 1.0469 – 1641 (131 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report was slightly negative with no previous revision. This caused a relatively small and fleeting short spike of 8 ticks that promptly retreated back to the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 1.0462 with no slippage. In this case you would have been about 3 ticks in the red at the best possible opportunity to close out on the :31 bar, or 7 ticks at the worst. With all three major SMAs acting as support and the PP Pivot sitting at the origin, it was restrained from moving too far short, but should test it again. I elected to stay in and ride it out for the long term due to the gravity of the negative report panning out over time. I set my exit at 1.0457, just above the S1 Pivot looking to get 5 ticks. It took 35 min, but it filled and did not go any lower. The reversal then yielded 13 ticks in the next 95 min.

6A 12 12 (2 Range) 12.03.12

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Dec 032012

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 12.03.12

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Dec 032012

12/3/2012 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1730 HI time / 2230 EST)
Forecast: 3.00%
Actual: 3.00%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.0415
1st Peak @ 1.0439 – 1731 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.0398 – 1731 (1 min)
-41 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0448 – 1732 (2 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 1.0424 – 1851 (81 min)
24 ticks

Notes: With continued economic growth softening in Australia and abroad, and risks to the global outlook , expectations were strong for the RBA to cut interest rates by another 25 BP. This time they gave in to the pressure and carried through with the cut. This caused an indecisive scenario as the market rallied for 24 ticks, then fell 41 ticks in the span of 2 sec. After hovering in the short area for the latter part of the :31 bar, it rallied for a 2nd peak of 33 ticks, then sustained the long reaction. With JOBB, you would have filled long and then the reversal would have filled short to close you out with about a 29 tick loss with slippage. This would have happened before the OCO could function, but the safety logic would have triggered preventing any further entries from stop losses. The reaction is surprising, since normally a rate cut would trigger a weakening of the currency and cause a decisive short reaction. The rate cut must have been priced in and already expected. After the 2nd peak, it reversed for 24 ticks 80 min later.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 12.02.12

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Dec 022012

12/2/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0415
1st Peak @ 1.0392 – 1433 (3 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0382 – 1456 (26 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 1.0407 – 1553 (83 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Report fell well short of the forecast, with no previous report revision. This broke on Sunday btu still had a decent reaction. This caused a 23 tick short spike in 3 min that crossed the PP Pivot, then eclipsed the S1 Pivot at the peak. With JOBB you would have filled short at 1.0409 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to get 10-15 ticks with ease. Due to the disappointing news, it was able to achieve a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks about 25 min later. Then it reversed for 25 ticks crossing the S1 Pivot, 50 and 100 SMAs, but could not rise above the 200 SMA and PP Pivot at 1.0407.

Older Entries Newer Entries