Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 11.19.12

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Nov 192012

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 11.08.12

RBA Monetary Policy Comments Off

Nov 082012

11/8/2012 Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement (1430 HI time / 1930 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0358
1st Peak @ 1.0348 – 1431 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reverse to 1.0374 – 1530 (60 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Minimal excitement on this report. Citing a mildly positive outlook for economic growth in the US and Asia, and weak but stabilizing conditions in Europe, the RBA continues to take a slightly dovish approach. This caused a 10 short move that hit the S2 Pivot and bounced back. With JOBB, your order would have filled short at 1.0353 with no slippage then would have given you a brief opportunity to close out with 3-4 ticks before it reversed long. If you were not quick enough to eke out a few ticks, do not get greedy. Close out at or near breakeven on the :31 or :32 bar. After trading sideways for 20 min, it began a slow reversal long for 26 total tick that crossed all 3 SMAs and the S1 Pivot to peak at the HOD 1 hr after the report.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 11.07.12

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Nov 072012

11/7/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 0.2K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 10.7K
Previous Revision: +1.0K to 15.5K
Rate Forecast: 5.5%
Rate Actual: 5.4%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0362
1st Peak @ 1.0397 – 1434 (4 min)
35 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0402 – 1527 (57 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 1.0382 – 1606 (96 min)
20 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.0364 – 1814 (224 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Decently positive report that exceeded the forecast on jobs created with the unemployment rate holding steady at 0.1%, but better than the forecast, and a small upward revision to the previous report caused a healthy long spike of 35 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.0386 with 16 ticks of slippage. After the fill you would have seen it seesaw between 1.0371 and 1.0390. If you were filled on the spike above 1.0386, you would have been stopped out on the drop to 1.0371. On the following 3 bars, it reclaimed the level of the 1st peak and 1 more tick, then it surrendered 10 ticks before heading for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks about 1 hr later. I set my sell limit at 1.0394 (2 ticks below the 1st peak) and my order filled on the :32 bar for a 7 tick profit. The spike had to cross all 3 of the major SMAs while starting at the S1 Pivot, crossing the PP Pivot, and peaking at the R1 Pivot. After the 2nd peak, the reversal was able to reclaim 20 ticks in 40 min and 38 ticks to the S1 Pivot in a little less than 3 hrs.

6A 12 12 (2 Range) 11.07.12

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Nov 072012

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 11.05.12

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Nov 052012

11/5/2012 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1730 HI time / 2230 EST)
Forecast: 3.00%
Actual: 3.25%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0333
1st Peak @ 1.0408 – 1731 (1 min)
75 ticks

Reversal to 1.0363 – 1732 (2 min)
45 ticks

Peak @ 1.0401 – 1745 (15 min)
68 ticks

Reversal to 1.0386 – 1815 (45 min)
20 ticks

Notes: With continued economic growth softening in Australia and abroad, and risks to the global outlook , expectations were strong for the RBA to cut interest rates by another 25 BP. They shocked everyone and decided against cutting, citing the total 1.5% cut from 1 yr ago working to lower borrowing interest rates and increased incentive for investors. This caused a large long spike that rose over 75 ticks in 2 seconds. With the market trading slightly bearish before the news in a tight range, it was prime to react long to the outcome. With JOBB you would have filled with about 20 ticks of slippage at 1.0359. Then you would have an opportunity to close out quickly with about 15 ticks. If you were patient and waited for the rally in the 15 min following the spike, you could have secured 30 or more ticks. Be wary of the R3 Pivot which normally serves as strong resistance. As the spike shot up quickly and crossed all 3 major SMAs, and the R1-R3 Pivots, it was unable to sustain its climb and retraced after 2 sec to hover between 1.0366 and 1.0380 for the rest of the bar to leave 43 ticks on the wick naked. The initial reversal came back up to 6 ticks below the R3 Pivot before rising again to a peak 7 ticks lower than the 1st peak. Then volume dried up and it traded in a tight range.

6A 12 12 (2 Range) 11.05.12

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Nov 052012

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 10.23.12

Quarterly CPI Comments Off

Oct 232012

10/23/2012 Quarterly CPI (1430 HI time / 2030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.9%
Actual: 1.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0229
1st Peak@ 1.0261 – 1431 (1 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 1.0240 – 1445 (15 min)
21 ticks

Notes: This report was strongly positive on the face of it, but high amounts of slippage, and the initial retracement may have stopped you out. This resulted in a quick rise of 21 ticks, followed by a retracement of 22 ticks which may have hit your stop loss with JOBB if you experienced more than 7 ticks of slippage and filled higher than 1.0243. On the other hand the retracement happened very fast, so if you had a slower connection, you may have gotten lucky where your stop loss tried to apply to the chart when the price was below it and been saved by a Ninja error. See the range chart to see what I am talking about. If you were fortunate to avoid the stop, try to close out with a limit order near or above the R2 Pivot at the top of the hovering range with 15 or so ticks. The reversal was able to reclaim 21 ticks in a relatively quick 15 min.

6A 12 12 (2 Range) 10.23.12

Quarterly CPI Comments Off

Oct 232012

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 10.15.12

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Oct 152012

10/15/2012 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1430 HI time / 2030 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0206
1st Peak @ 1.0194 – 1431 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.0218 – 1441 (11 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Expected short spike for 12 ticks due to the 25 BP rate cut 2 by the RBA 2 weeks ago that was unable to sustain most of its drop due to crossing the 200 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled short with 1-2 ticks of slippage at about 1.0200, then had an opportunity to close out with about 4 ticks when it bottomed and began to retreat about 30 sec into the bar. If you were unable to get out, move your stop loss to break even and be safe. The reversal took over quickly and was able to recover the drop then extend the rally to the HOD for 24 ticks in 10 min before volume started to dry up.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 10.10.12

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Oct 102012

10/10/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (1430 HI time / 2030 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 5.1K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 14.5K
Previous Revision: -0.3K to -9.1K
Rate Forecast: 5.3%
Rate Actual: 5.4%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0171
1st Peak @ 1.0197 – 1431 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.0183 – 1434 (4 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0211 – 1450 (20 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 1.0191 – 1510 (40 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Mostly positive report that exceeded the forecast on jobs created with the unemployment rate increasing 0.1% due to 40,000 people joining the labor force, and a small downward revision to the previous report caused a moderate long spike of 26 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.0179 with 1 tick of slippage. After the fill you would have seen a quick pop to 1.0197 in 3 sec, then a retreat and hovering between 1.0180 and 1.0190 area. The increase in the rate caused the initial reluctance to go long, but after the reason was understood, it continued to rally. I set my sell limit at 1.0196 (1 tick below the 1st peak) and my order filled on the :32 bar for a 17 tick profit. All of the major SMAs were already below the trade action at the origin, so it only crossed the PP Pivot on the spike, while the 2nd peak eclipsed the R1 Pivot for another 14 ticks in 20 min. The reversal was able to garner 20 ticks in 20 min after the 2nd peak.

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