Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.2.2016

Feb 222016

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2_2_2016

2/2/2016 Monthly Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Forecast: -2.45B
Actual: -3.54B
Previous Revision: +0.18B to -2.73B
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7026
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7037 – 1930:03 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7018 – 1930:12 (1 min)
)))-19 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.6990 – 1955 (25 min)
47 ticks

Pullback to 0.7005 – 2008 (38 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7019 (in between the S1 Pivot and 50 SMA) / 0.7011 (in between the S2 Mid Pivot and LOD)
Short entries – 0.7033 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7042 (just above the PP Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.7033 – inner short tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7019 – 14 ticks (inner long tier)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7019 (inner long tier unmoved)

Notes: Nice conflict with the Trade balance missing the forecast and an equally offsetting Bldg Permits. This caused an ideal whipsaw for the Trap Trade to capture 14 ticks with the inner tiers in 12 sec. After that it continued to fall as the Trade Balance results held sway.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.1.2016

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Feb 212016

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2_1_2016

6A 03-16 (Second) 2_1_2016

2/1/2016 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2230 EST)
Forecast: 2.00% (no change)
Actual: 2.00% (no change)
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor point @ 0.7088 – shift 5 ticks higher to 0.7093
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7124 – 2230:05 (1 min)
)))31 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7089 – 2230:28 (1 min)
)))-35 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7110 – 2231:02 (2 min)
)))21 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7099 – 2231:31 (2 min)
)))-11 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.7116 – 2233 (3 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.7070 – 2251 (21 min)
46 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7073 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.7058 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7114 (just below the R2 Pivot) / 0.7125 (No SMA/Pivot near)

Expected Fill: 0.7114 (inner short tier)
Best Initial Exit: 0.7090 – 24 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7093 – just below the OOD / 100 SMA

Notes: The initial long spike would have peaked in between the 2 short entries for an inner tier fill. Then it quickly dropped to the origin area to allow up to 24 ticks to be captured. After a few more swings, it eventually drifted lower.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 1.26.2016

Quarterly CPI Comments Off

Feb 182016

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 1_26_2016

1/26/2016 Quarterly CPI / Trimmed Mean CPI (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.4%
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.6982
1st Peak@ 0.7023 – 1931:38 (2 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 0.7015 – 1935 (5 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7026 – 1942 (12 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 0.7016 – 1949 (19 min)
10 ticks

Double Top @ 0.7026 – 2007 (37 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.7003 – 2035 (65 min)
23 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.6995 (long)
Slippage: 6 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7022 – 27 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7020 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Moderately bullish report, be patient and wait for the :32 bar to exit and expect it to eclipse the R1 Pivot. It achieved a minor 2nd peak, then double top before a bigger reversal.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 2.12.2014

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Mar 012014

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 2_12_2014

2/12/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (1930 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 15.3K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: -3.7K
Previous Revision: -0.4K to -23.0K
Rate Forecast: 5.9%
Rate Actual: 6.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE…DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 0.8992
Premature spike@ 0.9023 – 1930:00 (1 Min)
31 ticks

1st Peak @ 0.8933 – 1931 (1 min)
90 ticks

Reversal to 0.8948 – 1932 (2 min)
15 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8910 – 2101 (91 min)
113 ticks

Reversal to 0.8930 – 2213 (163 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Very negative report that fell short of the forecast on jobs created by nearly 19K while the unemployment rate also jumped 0.1%, with a negligible downward revision to the previous report caused a premature long spike followed by the true short move. The 14 tick spike that shot down, rebounded and fell again immediately about 8 sec before the report should have been cause to cancel the order. It was trading sideways near the 200 SMA before the early volatility drove it lower. With JOBB, if you did not cancel, your bracket would have setup with an anchor point at about 0.8992 on the S2 Mid Pivot. Your long entry would have filled at about 0.09008 with 8 ticks of slippage, then you would have been stopped at about 0.8984 with 4 ticks of slippage. It continued lower, crossing the S4 Mid Pivot for a total of 90 ticks from the top of the premature spike or 59 ticks from the origin. Then it reversed 15 ticks on the :32 bar, before continuing lower for a final peak of another 23 ticks in the next 90 min after crossing the S4 Pivot. Then it reversed for a meager 20 ticks in the next 72 min as the volume dried up. This is a case where you can easily make a 2nd peak trade for about 20-25 ticks with a sell limit on the :32 bar reversal after the bearish results are known. A target of the S4 Pivot would be prudent.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 2.17.2014

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Mar 022014

2/17/2014 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 0.9017 (last price and on the R1 Pivot)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8998 – 1930:14 (1 min)
)))-19 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9010 – 1930:18 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Double Bottom @ 0.8998 – 1930:41 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9020 – 1931:35 (2 min)
)))22 ticks
—————-
Continued Reversal to 0.9055 – 1932:27 (3 min)
57 ticks

Pullback to 0.9032 – 1936 (6 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.9063 – 1950 (20 min)
31 ticks

Pullback to 0.9046 – 2000 (30 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.9065 – 2004 (34 min)
19 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9007 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.8999 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.9027 (in between the HOD and R2 Pivot) / 0.9034 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Minutes caused a short reaction that fell about 20 ticks 14 sec into the :31 bar, then reversed back 12 in a head fake, fell to match the low, then reversed as expected for 22 ticks quickly and eventually 57 ticks. Due to the Cash Rate from 2 weeks ago causing a sizeable bullish reaction, we advised holding onto a long entry for a while to expect it to carry into a large move. Both of your long entries would have filled, with only a tick or 2 excess. Then it would have reversed allowing around 40 or so ticks to be captured easily on the :33 bar. above the R3 Pivot. After that it kept stepping higher, then retreating 2 more times to eventually reach 0.9065 above the R4 Pivot.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 3.12.2014

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Mar 122014

3/12/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (2030 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 15.3K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 47.3K
Previous Revision: +21.7K to 18.0K
Rate Forecast: 6.0%
Rate Actual: 6.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE REVERSE (NO FILL)
Started @ 0.9013
1st Peak @ 0.9075 – 2032 (2 min)
62 ticks

Reversal to 0.9055 – 2036 (6 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Very positive report that stood in stark contrast to last month. It beat he forecast by 32k jobs and had a previous revision over 20K to strongly impress the traders. If you look at the range chart you see the violent swings after the initial spike lasted 4 sec, before it settled down to trade between 0.9056 and 0.9068 at the R3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB (limit orders, 10 tick setting, cancelifgapped=false), you would have seen the initial spike blast through long with no fill as it exceeded the 10 ticks of slippage. Then the lowest retracement came down to 0.9031, but the ask only came down to 0.9033. This would have prevented an entry on the retracement by 2 ticks (long entry at 0.9021, 10 tick limit barrier at 0.9031). So with no fill cancel the order. Had we entered at 0.9031 or 0.9033, up to 35 ticks or more could have been captured with ease. The spike eventually hit the top of 0.9075 about halfway through the :32 bar. Then we saw a 20 ticks reversal on the next 4 bars to 0.9055. After that volume dried up and no other significant moves were made as it traded sideways.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 3.3.2014

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Mar 252014

3/3/2014 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2230 EST)
Forecast: 2.50%
Actual: 2.50%
TRAP TRADE
Anchor point @ 0.8937
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.8923 – 2230:04 (1 min)
-13 ticks

Reversal to 0.8948 – 2230:05 (1 min)
25 ticks

Pullback to 0.8924 – 2230:06 (1 min)
-24 ticks

Reversal to 0.8964 – 2230:32 (1 min)
40 ticks

Pullback to 0.8930 – 2231:06 (2 min)
-34 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.8903 – 2234 (4 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 0.8921 – 2256 (26 min)
18 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8924 (just below the OOD) / 0.8914 (on the LOD)
Short entries – 0.8949 (in between the R2 Mid Pivot and the HOD) / 0.8958 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Australia’s central bank left rates unchanged as expected with no other major changed in policy. This caused an indecisive reaction overall, with initial swings between the OOD on the short side and the R2 Pivot on the long side. The initial burst short for 13 ticks would have filled the inner long entry with 1 tick to spare, then reversed quickly to within 1 tick of our inner short entry. After a pullback, the next reversal would have filled the inner short entry and the outer short entry if left on the chart. Then it would have fallen again to allow for more profit to be captured. It eventually fell for a 2nd peak of 21 more ticks down to the S1 Pivot, then reversed for 18 ticks in the next 22 min to the PP Pivot.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 3.4.2014

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Mar 252014

3/4/2014 Quarterly Advance GDP (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.8954
Premature Spike @ 0.8939 – 1931 (1 Min)
15 ticks

1st Peak@ 0.9009 – 1931 (1 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 0.8961 – 2024 (54 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.1% with no previous revision. This caused a head fake short for 15 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs and hit the LOD, followed by the true long move of 70 ticks that crossed the R4 Pivot and backed off. There was a trigger to cancel the order about 30 sec before the report with a 9 tick spike up followed by a retracement in 10 sec. If you did not cancel, With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.8946 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it reverse and stop you out immediately with about 8 ticks of slippage at 0.8964. The “Reverse if Stopped” feature would be appropriate for this trade allowing another 20 or so ticks to be captured to offset the loss. The large spike was unsustainable as it crossed the R4 Pivot and retreated to hover between the R3 and R4 Mid Pivots. Then it trickled down about 18 more ticks in the next 54 min to the 100 SMA as volume dried up. The large red candle at 2045 is a spontaneous news event.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 3.5.2014

Monthly Retail Sales, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Mar 272014

3/5/2014 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 1.2%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.7%
Trade Bal
Forecast: 0.11B
Actual: 1.43B
Previous Revision: +0.12B to 0.59B
TRAP TRADE (STOPPED OUT)
Anchor Point @ 0.8980 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.9023 – 1930:10 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 0.9008 – 1930:42 (1 min)
-15 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.9028 – 1933
48 ticks

Reversal to 0.9013 – 1948 (18 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8966 (between the LOD and the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.8956 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8997 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.9006 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Retail Sales report had the highest reading and largest offset since April 2013 with a decent upward previous revision, while the Trade Balance report also strongly exceeded the forecast by 1.3B with the highest reading since Feb 2012, coupled with a moderate upward previous report revision. The combination of unusually strong news caused a large decisive bullish spike of 43 ticks that had strong conviction in its climb and sustained the move. Your inner and outer tier short entries would have filled with about a second gap, then you would have been stopped with about 16 ticks with both entries with 1 tick of slippage for a combined 32 tick loss. Though this result was unfortunate, it was a rare extraordinary result and had a low probability of outcome. Still we will adjust the approach to trading combined resports such as this to just use 1 tier in the future to mitigate the risk and hedge the loss. After the peak was reached in 10 sec, it backed off 15 ticks in the next 30 sec, before achieving a 2nd peal of 5 more ticks on the :33 bar as it was flirting with the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 15 ticks back to first impact the 13/20 SMAs. When this happens, it is a good place to buy the dip and look to get 10 or so ticks. This would have worked nicely as it achieved a double top about 41 min after the report. Then it traded sideways near the R3 Mid Pivot as volume dried up.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 10.7.2013

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

Apr 062014

10/7/2013 NAB Business Confidence (2030 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 12
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9395
1st Peak @ 0.9406 – 2032 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.9371 – 2136 (66 min)
35 ticks

Notes: Report came in at the highest level in recent months to cause a long spike of 11 ticks that started on the 13 SMA and was slow and tame to advance. It crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and extended the HOD, peaking 6 sec into the :32 bar. After the peak, it reversed slowly and methodically for 35 ticks in the next 64 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs, the S1 Mid Pivot, and extending the LOD. This could have also been correcting the bullish advance in the hour leading up to the trade.

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