Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 4.14.2014

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

May 042014

4/14/2014 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 0.9358 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9367 – 2130:11 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9357 – 2130:24 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))2nd Peak @ 0.9369 – 2131:14 (2 min)
)))12 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.9348 – 2136 (6 min)
21 ticks

Pullback to 0.9363 – 2157 (27 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9351 (just below the S2 Pivot) / 0.9342 (on the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.9368 (on the S1 Pivot) / 0.9374 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Minutes caused a long reaction that climbed 9 ticks 11 sec into the :31 bar then reversed 10 ticks back to the origin. Then it rebounded to achieve a 2nd peak 2 ticks higher, crossing the S1 Mid Pivot. This would have filled your inner tier short entry with 1 tick to spare. Since the Cash Rate from 2 weeks ago causing a long reaction that fell and reversed after 3 min, look for a similar reaction with patience. It took until the :35 bar to see the real reversal, but it came for 21 ticks to fall through the S2 Pivot allowing your inner long entry to act as the profit target for 17 ticks. After the reversal, it pulled back for 15 ticks in the next 21 min back to the S1 Pivot.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 10.27.2015

Quarterly CPI Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 10_27_2015

10/27/2015 Quarterly CPI / Trimmed Mean CPI (2030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.5%
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 0.6%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7169
1st Peak@ 0.7102 – 2031:31 (2 min)
67 ticks

Reversal to 0.7123 – 2036 (3 min)
21 ticks

Pullback to 0.7101 – 2057 (27 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.7118 – 2111 (41 min)
17 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7152 (short)
Slippage: 10 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7103 – 49 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: ~0.7116 (in between the S2 / S3 Mid Pivots)

Notes: Very bearish report, be patient and wait for the :32 bar to exit with anoth 10-15 ticks. Good opportunity to trade the double bottom or reversal.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 5.5.2014

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

May 242014

5/5/2014 Monthly Trade Balance (1930 EDT)
Forecast: 1.10B
Actual: 0.73B
Previous Revision: +0.06B to 1.26B
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.9261 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9252 – 2130:07 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9261 – 2130:13 (1 min)
)))9 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.9249 – 2133 (3 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.9259 – 2141 (11 min)
10 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9266 – 2201 (31 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9253 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.9246 (just above the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.9268 (just above the R2 Pivot) / 0.9277 (On the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report mildly fell short of the forecast by 0.37B, with a negligible upward previous report revision. This caused a dip downward of 9 ticks that quickly reversed course after hitting the 200 SMA, and R1 Mid Pivot to the origin 6 sec after the peak. Your inner tier long entry would have filled then given you about 3-5 ticks on the reversal to be captured in between the 50 and 100 SMAs. If you waited too long to exit, a 10 min wait would have seen a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks followed by a reversal of 10 ticks 8 min later to give you the same opportunity. If you were patient for another 20 min, another 7 ticks could have been captured as it reached the HOD.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 5.6.2014

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

May 242014

5/6/2014 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (0030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.50%
Actual: 2.50%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor point @ 0.9257
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9269 – 0030:07 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9259 – 0030:10 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9272 – 0030:24 (1 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9260 – 0030:28 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.9292 – 0035 (5 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.9249 – 0044 (14 min)
43 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9245 (on the PP Pivot) / 0.9235 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.9268 (just above the R2 Pivot) / 0.9279 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Australia’s central bank left rates unchanged as expected with no other major changed in policy. This caused a long spike followed by a reversal, then a rebound and another reversal to make a great trap trade setup. The initial burst long for 12 ticks would have filled the inner short entry tier with 1 tick to spare, then reversed for 10 ticks in 3 sec to allow a brief opportunity to exit with about 8 ticks. Then it rebounded for 13 ticks and fell a2 ticks to allow another exit for about 8 ticks just below the R2 Pivot. If you are still in after the :32 bar, look to exit when the reversal appears to stall as a 2nd peak push is strongly likely. It climbed for 32 ticks to the R3 Pivot in the next 3 min, then reversed 43 ticks in 9 min to the OOD.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 5.6.2014

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

May 252014

5/6/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.3%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9320
1st Peak @ 0.9307 – 2130:07 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.9322 – 2137 (7 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.3%, with a small upward previous report revision. This caused a safe and decisive short spike for 13 ticks. The peak crossed the S2 Mid Pivot and no SMAs as the market was already trending slightly downward. With JOBB you would have filled short at 0.9311 with 3 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit at about 0.9308 as it hovered around the S2 Mid Pivot before reversing. After the :31 bar, it started reversing and returned to the origin, the OOD, and the 50 SMA in the next 6 min. Then some unlisted news event broke at 2145 to cause a brief whipsaw.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 5.7.2014

AUS Employment change Comments Off

May 252014

5/7/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (1030 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 7.5K
Employment Change Actual: 14.2K
Previous Revision: +3.8K to 21.9K
Rate Forecast: 5.9%
Rate Actual: 5.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9307
1st Peak @ 0.9339 – 2133 (3 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.9318 – 2159 (29 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Impressive report showing nearly 7k more jobs created than the forecast and a 0.1% drop in the rate. This caused a moderate spike of 32 ticks that ratcheted upward to cross the R2 Pivot and extend the HOD. With JOBB (limit orders, 12 tick setting, cancelifgapped=false), you would been filled at about 0.9317 to 0.9319 with 2-4 ticks of slippage. Look to exit at about 0.9333 for 14-16 ticks, where it hovered later in the :31 bar. It is also safe to wait for an exit in 2-4 min for about 10 more ticks, but there was no oblivious pivot or SMA, so 0.9337 would have been a good target. After that it reversed for 21 ticks in 26 min to nearly reach the 50 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot. Then the Chinese Trade Balance news caused a rally about 15 min later.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 5.8.2014

RBA Monetary Policy Comments Off

May 252014

5/8/2014 Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9338
Premature Spike @ 0.9333 – 2130 (0 min)
-5 ticks

1st Peak @ 0.9344 – 2131 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.9324 – 2131 (1 min)
-20 ticks

Notes: The Reserve Bank of Australia announced growth in Australia’s major trading partners appears to have moderated and Chinese slowing may be temporary. Unfortunately, Chinese CPI was releasing at the same time to cause instability. This caused a premature short move of 5 ticks followed by a reversal of 11 ticks, then a sustained short move of 20 ticks. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your order would have filled short at 0.9335 with no slippage on the premature drop, then been stopped with a 6 tick loss on the immediate reversal with 1 tick of slippage. We should have sat this one out with the double booked report, but will chalk this up as a lesson learned. It continued to swing a few more times in the next 90 min.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 5.11.2014

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

May 262014

5/11/2014 NAB Business Confidence (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 6
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9329
1st Peak @ 0.9337 – 2131 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.9330 – 2131 (1 min)
7 ticks

Pullback to 0.9335 – 2134 (4 min)
5 ticks

Notes: Report came in 2 pts higher than last month with no previous revision. This caused a relatively small 8 tick long spike that started on the 20 SMA and rose to cross all 3 Major SMAs, the OOD, and nick the PP Pivot before collapsing. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 0.9335 with 2 ticks of slippage, then a quick reversal would have stopped you for a 5 tick loss. Then you would have seen it climb slowly on the next 3bars to reach the 100 SMA. So, the last 2 reactions have been quick spikes as a change of behavior from the previous reports, but the action after the :31 bar is still consistent.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 5.19.2014

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

May 282014

5/19/2014 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 0.9300 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9293 – 2130:06 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9298 – 2130:10 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))2nd Peak @ 0.9290 – 2132:01 (3 min)
)))-10 ticks
—————-

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9290 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.9285 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.9309 (on the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.9316 (just below the HOD)

Notes: Minutes caused a dull reaction that fell only 7 ticks to be just inside of the long entry, then reversed 5 ticks immediately, then fell to hover. This would not have filled your inner tier entry, so cancel the order. This is an aberration as it was a very tame reaction and had no resemblance of the cash rate report from 2 weeks prior. It achieved a minor 2nd peak of 3 more ticks at the open of the :33 bar, then trickled lower for a handful of ticks in the next 45 min.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 6.2.2014

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Jun 082014

6/2/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9232
1st Peak @ 0.9221 – 2130:08 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.9250 – 2133 (3 min)
29 ticks

Pullback to 0.9224 – 2206 (36 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.9237 – 2238 (68 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.1%, with less impacting report, current account beating the forecast by a relatively large margin. This caused a small short spike of 11 ticks that crossed the S1 Pivot and extended the LOD then held for 12 sec before reversing. With JOBB you would have filled short at 0.9225 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit at breakeven to +2 ticks where it hovered below the S1 Pivot before reversing. After 12 sec, the current account took over to initiate a 29 tick reversal in the next 2.5 min to the R1 Pivot. Then it pulled back for 26 ticks to the S1 Pivot, aided by the slightly bearish CNY HSBC manufacturing reading. Then it reversed for 13 ticks in the next 32 min to the PP Pivot.

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