Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 6.3.2014

Jun 112014

6/3/2014 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (0030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.50%
Actual: 2.50%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor point @ 0.9246
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9258 – 0030:28 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9235 – 0031:15 (2 min)
)))-23 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.9254 – 0036 (6 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.9244 – 0040 (10 min)
-10 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9264 – 0124 (54 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.9258 – 0132 (62 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9235 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.9224 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.9258 (just below the R2 Pivot) / 0.9270 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Australia’s central bank left rates unchanged as expected with no other major changed in policy. This caused a slow developing long spike followed by a reversal midway through the :32 bar, then a rebound and another reversal to make a great trap trade setup. The initial burst long for 12 ticks would have filled the inner short entry tier to the tick, then reversed for 23 ticks allowing an ideal exit near the PP Pivot / 200 SMA for about 22 ticks. After that it pulled back for 19 ticks in the next 5 min to the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 10 ticks to the 20 SMA before stepping higher to a final peak of 6 ticks more than the original peak nearly 1 hr after the report, clearing the R2 Pivot and extending the HOD.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 6.3.2014

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Jun 112014

6/3/2014 Quarterly Advance GDP (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.9%
Actual: 1.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9255
Premature Spike @ 0.9244 – 2130:00 (1 Min)
-11 ticks

1st Peak@ 0.9295 – 2130:02 (1 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 0.9272 – 2144 (14 min)
23 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9250 – 2249 (79 min)
45 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.2% on a very high forecast with no previous revision. This caused a head fake short for 11 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs, the PP Pivot and hit the LOD, followed by the true long move of 40 ticks that crossed the R4 Mid Pivot and backed off. With JOBB, yor short entry would have filled at 0.9248 with 2 ticks of slippage, then you would have been stopped out 1 sec later at about 0.9275 with 17 ticks of slippage on the large long move. As this report is proving to behave this way more often, we will shift to a larger bracket (16-18 ticks) to avoid the premature spike or use a large Trap Trade setting of 40 ticks. After the spike, it reversed 23 ticks in the next 14 min to the 20 SMA and R3 Mid Pivot in 13 min. Then it continued to fall for another 22 ticks in the next hour as it reached the R1 Mid Pivot.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 6.4.2014

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jun 152014

6/4/2014 Monthly Trade Balance (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.40B
Actual: -0.12B
Previous Revision: +0.17B to 0.90B
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.9266 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9255 – 2130:15 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9260 – 2130:25 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.9253 – 2136 (6 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.9277 – 2206 (36 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9256 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 0.9251 (in between the S1 and S2 Mid Pivots)
Short entries – 0.9274 (just above the HOD) / 0.9282 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report mildly fell short of the forecast by 0.28B, with a sizeable upward previous report revision. This caused a short spike of 11 ticks that was unusually sustained and did not want to reverse much. Your inner tier long entry would have filled then given you about 3 ticks on the reversal to be captured as it hovered for about 20 sec. This is also a case where being very patient would have worked out as the real reversal took over 20 min to materialize. The S1 Pivot held well as support, so if you are going for the long play probably use 9252 or 9251 as the stop (-4 or -5 ticks). The 200 SMA / PP Pivot would be a good target for about 12 ticks. It continued to reverse to the R1 Mid Pivot for a total of 24 ticks.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 6.11.2014

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Jul 042014

6/11/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (2130 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 10.3K
Employment Change Actual: -4.8K
Previous Revision: -3.9K to 10.3K
Rate Forecast: 5.9%
Rate Actual: 5.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9382
1st Peak @ 0.9344 – 2130:01 (1 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 0.9387 – 2132 (2 min)
43 ticks

Pullback to 0.9367 – 2134 (4 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.9384 – 2154 (24 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Disappointing report showing nearly a loss of 4.8k jobs and about 15k less jobs created than the forecast. This conflicted with the a 0.1% drop in the rate to cause a choppy reaction that fell to nearly reach the S4 Mid Pivot then reverse to the SMAs later in the bar. With JOBB (limit orders, 12 tick setting, cancelifgapped=false), you would been filled at about 0.9369 with 5 ticks of slippage. A 20 tick profit target would have filled easily. Otherwise, look to exit near the S3 Pivot at about 0.9352 for 17 ticks, where it hovered after the drop. After that it reversed for 43 ticks in latter part of the :31 bar and :32 bar to the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back for 20 ticks in 2 min to the S2 Pivot. It reversed to the PP Pivot for 17 ticks in the next 20 min.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 6.16.2014

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Jul 052014

6/16/2014 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 0.9331 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9323 – 2130:36 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9328 – 2131:03 (2 min)
)))5 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.9308 – 2143 (13 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.9316 – 2147 (17 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9302 – 2205 (35 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 0.9310 – 2223 (53 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9324 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.9316 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.9340 (just below the OOD/HOD) / 0.9346 (no SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Minutes caused a small short reaction that fell 8 ticks to cross the LOD / S1 Mid Pivot, then back off for 5 ticks later in the bar. Depending on the placement of the order, this would have filled your inner tier long entry at 0.9323 or higher. Look to exit with about 3-4 ticks when it hovered as the :31 bar transitioned to the :32 bar or if waiting for a higher move, move the stop up to near breakeven for protection. It stepped lower to a 2nd peak of 15 more ticks to the S2 Mid Pivot, then a final peak of another 6 ticks. Each time it reversed for 8 ticks after the new low was achieved.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 7.1.2014

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Jul 142014

7/1/2014 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (0030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.50%
Actual: 2.50%
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor point @ 0.9368
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9391 – 0030:55 (1 min)
)))23 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9385 – 0031:06 (2 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9396 – 0031:28 (2 min)
)))11 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 0.9404 – 0036 (6 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 0.9389 – 0038 (8 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9355 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.9344 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.9381 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot/ OOD) / 0.9389 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Australia’s central bank left rates unchanged as expected with no other major changed in policy. This caused a slow developing long spike of 23 ticks that eclipsed the HOD followed by a small reversal into the :32 bar of only 5 ticks, then a rebound for an eventual final peak of 13 more ticks after 5 more min. You would not have seen an impulse breach the inner short entry until about 38-41 sec into the :31 bar, so cancel the order. With a slow and tame rise, the possibility of a quick reversal is much lower too. After the final peak, it reversed for 15 ticks in 2 min to the 13 SMA. Then it pulled back and traded sideways near the R1 Pivot.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 7.1.2014

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jul 142014

7/1/2014 Monthly Trade Balance (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -0.16B
Actual: -1.91B
Previous Revision: -0.66B to -0.78B
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.9436 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9421 – 2130:28 (1 min)
)))-15 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9424 – 2130:31 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.9411 – 2139 (9 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 0.9420 – 2155 (25 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9428 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.9421 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.9444 (just below the HOD) / 0.9452 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report fell strongly short of the forecast by 1.75B, with a sizeable downward previous report revision. This caused a decisive short spike of 15 ticks that was unusually sustained and did not want to reverse much due to the biased news. Your inner tier and outer long entries would have filled then given you an exit within 1 tick of breakeven as it hovered around 0.9424 for over 1 min. In this situation get out with the breakeven, since a further reversal is unlikely and it continued to fall for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks in the next 8 min as it crossed the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed for only 9 ticks in 16 min, crossing the 13/20 SMAs.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 7.7.2014

NAB Business Confidence Comments Off

Jul 202014

7/7/2014 NAB Business Confidence (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 8
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9336
1st Peak @ 0.9350 – 2130:12 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.9344 – 2131 (1 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9351 – 2135 (5 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.9338 – 2156 (26 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report came in 1 pt higher than last month with no previous revision. This caused a moderate 14 tick long spike that started on the R4 Mid Pivot and rose to cross the R4 Pivot and extend the HOD. The reaction also returned to its previous ways of being slow and tame. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 0.9340 with no slippage, then risen for 10 more ticks to allow about 8 ticks to be captured while it hovered near the top. It would also be okay to wait for a few more ticks on a pullback and set your target at 0.9350. Then it reversed for 13 ticks to the R4 Pivot and 50 SMA after 21 min.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 7.9.2014

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Jul 202014

7/9/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (2130 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 12.3K
Employment Change Actual: 15.9K
Previous Revision: -0.3K to -5.1K
Rate Forecast: 5.9%
Rate Actual: 6.0%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 5.9%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9392
1st Peak @ 0.9417 – 2130:03 and :09 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 0.9382 – 2130:43 (1 min)
35 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.9365 – 2144 (14 min)
52 ticks

Notes: Mixed report showing 3.6k more jobs created than the forecast. This conflicted with the a 0.1% rise in the rate and bearish revisions to the previous reports to an initial long spike of 25 ticks that hit the R4 Pivot then reversed after 9 sec back to the origin. With JOBB (limit orders, 12 tick setting, cancelifgapped=false), you would been filled at about 0.9408 with 8 ticks of slippage. Most likely any profit target would have been missed as only 9 ticks of profit were seen. Be sure to recognize the situation and exit quickly between breakeven and a few ticks of profit. Otherwise, you would have unnecessarily eaten a larger loss or been stopped out. The reversal came quickly as the rate results overtook the jobs and caused a 35 tick reversal in about 30 sec to the 100 SMA. Then it continued lower for another 17 ticks in the next 13 min to the R1 Pivot.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 5.1.2014

Quarterly PPI Comments Off

Jul 262014

5/1/2014 Quarterly PPI (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.9%
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.9241 (last price and recent avg)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9249 – 2130:12 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9242 – 2131:49 (2 min)
)))-7 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.9239 – 2136 (6 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9253 – 2226 (56 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.9244 – 2341 (131 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9231 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.9226 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.9251 (just below the HOD) / 0.9255 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in 0.3% better than expected, causing a muted reaction. It initially rose 8 ticks, crossing the R1 Mid Pivot and all 3 Major SMAs. With the Trap Trade setup, your inside long entry would have been missed by 2 ticks, so cancel order after 20 sec. The peak was shortly sustained as it fell 7 ticks in about 90 sec to the 50 SMA and PP Pivot. Then it fell another 3 ticks in the next 4 min. After that it rallied for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in the next 50 min, eclipsing the HOD. Then it reversed 9 ticks in the next 75 min, crossing the 200 SMA and nearly reaching the PP Pivot.

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