6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2.19.2016

 GBP Retail Sales  Comments Off on 6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2.19.2016
Mar 082016
 

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2_19_2016

2/19/2016 GBP Retail Sales (0430 EST)
Forecast: 0.8
Actual: 2.3
Previous Revision: -0.4% to -1.4%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 1.4328
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.4346 – 0430:00 (1 min)
)))18 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.4314 – 0430:07 (1 min)
)))-32 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.4335 – 0431:10 (2 min)
)))21 ticks
————
Reversal to 1.4297 – 0436 (6 min)
38 ticks

Pullback to 1.4309 – 0437 (7 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.4268 – 0442 (12 min)
41 ticks

Pullback to 1.4318 – 0513 (43 min)
50 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.4299 (just above theLOD) / 1.4289 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.4352 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 1.4366 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel the order as the quick move would have missed the inner short tier by about 6 ticks and ran away quickly. After the strong reversal, it continued to step lower for the next 11 min before pulling back to the area of the market before the report.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2.16.2016

 CPI  Comments Off on 6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2.16.2016
Mar 062016
 

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2_16_2016

2/16/2016 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0430 EST)
CPI y/y Forecast: 0.3%
CPI y/y Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
PPI Input m/m Forecast: -1.2%
PPI Input m/m Actual: -0.7%
Previous Revision: +0.5% to -0.3%
RPI y/y Forecast: 1.4%
RPI y/y Actual: 1.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.4488
1st Peak @ 1.4462 – 0430:00 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.4482 – 0430:29 (1 min)
20 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.4505 – 0434 (4 min)
43 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.4445 – 0505 (35 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 1.4469 – 0534 (64 min)
24 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4479 (short)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.4465 – 14 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4462 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) – move higher to above the Pivot after hovering

Notes: Relatively small spike due to the match on CPI and the support of the R1 / R1 Mid Pivots and 100 SMA. It stabbed at the R1 Mid Pivot twice in the first 4 sec, then retreated to hover above the Pivot. Look to exit around 1.4468. Nice strong reversal for 43 ticks in 4 min before a delayed 2nd peak push to the PP Pivot.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2.17.2016

 Avg Earnings / Claimant Ct Change  Comments Off on 6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2.17.2016
Mar 062016
 

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2_17_2016

2/17/2016 Average Earnings Index / Claimant Count Change (0430 EST)
Avg Earnings Index Forecast: 1.9%
Avg Earnings Index Actual: 1.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 2.1%
Claimant Count Change Forecast: -2.9K
Claimant Count Change Actual: -14.8K
Previous Revision: -10.9K to -15.2K
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.4288
1st Peak @ 1.4253 – 0430:06 (1 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 1.4295 – 0436 (6 min)
42 ticks

Pullback to 1.4277 – 0448 (18 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.4340 – 0519 (49 min)
63 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4276
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.4254 – 22 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4247 ( in between the S1 Pivot and LOD) – move higher after hovering to 1.4260 area

Notes: The initial second saw a whipsaw that would have been contained inside the 10 tick bracket. Then we saw the decisive reaction fall 35 ticks in 6 sec and hover about 10 ticks above the S1 Pivot. Look to exit there as this is a precursor to a reversal and the strong layers of support crossed between 1.4275 an d1.4280. Then we saw a nice reversal of 42 ticks in 6 min then another 63 ticks in the next 40 min.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.17.2016

 AUS Employment change  Comments Off on 6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.17.2016
Mar 062016
 

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2_17_2016

2/17/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (1930 EST)
Employment Change Forecast: 12.9K
Employment Change Actual: -7.9K
Previous Revision: -0.2K to -0.8K
Rate Forecast: 5.8%
Rate Actual: 6.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7171
1st Peak @ 0.7128 – 1931:53 (2 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 0.7140 – 1938 (8 min)
12 ticks

Pullback to 0.7129 – 1942 (12 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.7148 – 1959 (29 min)
19 ticks

Pullback to 0.7133 – 2006 (36 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.7158 – 2016 (46 min)
25 ticks

Pullback to 0.7140 – 2033 (63 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.7159 – 2045 (75 min)
19 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7158 (short)
Slippage: 5 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7129 – 29 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7130 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Disappointing result caused a bearish reaction that targeted and found support on the S1 Mid Pivot. The crossing of the PP Pivot caused some retracement early in the :30 bar, but be patient with the overall bearish results. After that the overall reversal stepped upward by oscillating over the next hour to reach the 200 SMA.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.15.2016

 RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes  Comments Off on 6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.15.2016
Mar 062016
 

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2_15_2016

2/15/2016 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Started @ 0.7148
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.7146 to 0.7148 – 2131 (1 min)
)))2 ticks span
—————-

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7141 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.7132 -just above the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7155 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.7163 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: No reaction so cancel the trade.

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2.12.2016

 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment  Comments Off on 6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2.12.2016
Mar 042016
 

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2_12_2016

2/12/2016 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EST)
Forecast: 92.6
Actual: 90.7
Previous Revision: -1.3 to 92.0
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008878
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008870 – 0959:53 (0 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008889 – 1001:23 (2 min)
)))-11 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008856 – 1032 (32 min)
33 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008871 (just below the 200 SMA) / 0.008863 (just below the 100 SMA)
Short entries – 0.008885 (No SMA/Pivot near) / 0.008894 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot – on the OOD)

Expected Fill: 0.008871 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.008888 – 17 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008885 (inner short tier)

Notes: Nice inner tier fill was a bit premature then the news drove the reaction long to fill the inner short tier for about 14 ticks. After that it fell 33 ticks in the next 30 min.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2.10.2016

 GBP Manufacturing Production  Comments Off on 6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2.10.2016
Mar 042016
 

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2_10_2016

2/10/2016 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 0.0%
Actual: -0.2%
Previous revision: +0.1% to -0.3%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.4467
1st Peak @ 1.4438 – 0430:01 (1 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.4499 – 0431:28 (2 min)
61 ticks

Pullback @ 1.4474 – 0436 (6 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.4511 – 0503 (33 min)
37 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4461 (short)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.4439 – 22 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4446 (15 ticks and just below the PP Pivot / LOD)

Notes: Larger reaction but short lived due to crossing the PP Pivot and LOD on top of eachother. A profit target of anything less than 22 ticks would have filled. Otherwise you would be looking at a breakeven exit as it hovered for 30 sec near the fill point before continuing higher. After that it continued to reverse to the HOD in 30 min.

ZC 03-16 (1 Min) 2.9.2016

 WASDE - Corn  Comments Off on ZC 03-16 (1 Min) 2.9.2016
Mar 012016
 

ZC 03-16 (1 Min) 2_9_2016

2/9/2016 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL FILL
Started @ 360.75
1st Peak @ 359.25 – 1200:20 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 362.50 – 1208 (8 min)
13 ticks

Pullback to 360.75 – 1210 (10 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 362.75 – 1218 (18 min)
8 ticks

Pullback to 359.50 – 1318 (78 min)
13 ticks

Expected Fill: 359.50 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Exit: 359.25 – 1 tick
Recommended Profit Target placement: 355.25 (below the S3 Mid Pivot) – move up after small spike

Notes: Dull reaction barely filled then hovered just above the S2 Mid Pivot for 2 min. Look to exit between breakeven and 2 ticks loss. The subsequent swings were also small.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.26.2016

 Prelim GDP  Comments Off on ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.26.2016
Feb 282016
 

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2_26_2016ZB 03-16 (Second) 2_26_2016

2/26/2015 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0830 EST)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 1.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 166’03
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 165’25 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 166’03 – 0830:34 (1 min)
)))10 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 165’14 – 0843 (13 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 165’26 – 0848 (18 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 165’30 (No SMA / Pivot near)/ 165’27 (above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 166’08 (just below the 50 SMA) / 166’11 (in between the 50 and 100 SMAs)

Expected Fill: 165’30 and 165’27 – both long entries
Best Initial Exit: 166’02 – 11 total ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 166’03 (just below the S1 Pivot and the origin) – move lower

Notes: Huge offset in context saw an outer tier fill and still large reversal for a good trap trade setup. Be careful here not to linger too long as the overall news is strong and sure to see short follow through after the reversal. We saw a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks in 12 min then a reversal.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.26.2016

 7y Bond Auction  Comments Off on ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.26.2016
Feb 282016
 

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2_26_2016

2/26/2016 7-yr Bond Auction (1131 EST)
Previous: 1.76/2.6
Actual: 1.57/2.3
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 165’29 (1131)
1st Peak @ 165’15 – 1132:20 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 165’27 – 1136 (5 min)
12 ticks

Continued Reversal to 166’01 – 1203 (62 min)
18 ticks

Expected Fill: 165’26 (short)
Slippage: 1 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 165’16 – 10 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 165’21 (just below the 3 Major SMAs)

Notes: Large quick spike cut right through several layers of support to allow up to 10 ticks to be captured. No 2nd peak probably due to the lingering effect of the strong support just crossed as it reversed 12 ticks in 4 min.

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