ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.15.2016

 Retail Sales  Comments Off on ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.15.2016
Apr 032016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3_15_2016ZB 06-16 (Second) 3_15_2016

3/15/2016 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: -0.2%
Core Actual: -0.1%
Previous revision: -0.5% to -0.4%
Regular Forecast: -0.1%
Regular Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: -0.6% to -0.4%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 162’08
1st Peak @ 162’02 – 0830:00 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 162’17 – 0830:36 (1 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 162’09 – 0830:54 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 162’19 – 0908 (38 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 162’03 – 0931 (61 min)
16 ticks

Expected Fill: 162’05 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 162’06 – 1 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: 161’30 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Notes: It stabbed lower on the near matching-slightly bullish results with the core reading, but the previous revision was very bearish to give it a conflicting signal. The current reading gets first notice, then the revision, but normally the revision is small or the current reading is strongly biased so the revision is overlooked. So it would have filled short then reversed to a few ticks in the red and hovered.

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.24.2016

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.24.2016
Apr 032016
 

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3_24_2016

3/24/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 20B
Actual: 15B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.786
1st Peak @ 1.801 – 1030:00 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 1.780 – 1030:14 (1 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.815 – 1031:47 (2 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.790 – 1035 (5 min)
25 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.827 – 1054 (24 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 1.792 – 1119 (49 min)
35 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.797 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 1.800 – 3 ticks (1.796 likely exit – 1 tick loss)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.814 (just above the HOD) and 1.823 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Very small spike initially of only 15 ticks stalled and hovered for 9 sec before reversing strongly offering a warning to exit. Move the stop up to a few ticks in the red or close near breakeven. After that it cycled higher for a 2nd and Final peak with large reversals in between.

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.17.2016

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.17.2016
Apr 032016
 

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3_17_2016

3/17/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -9B
Actual: -1B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.878
1st Peak @ 1.855 – 1030:02 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.885 – 1041 (11 min)
30 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.830 – 1056 (26 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 1.849 – 1136 (66 min)
19 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.912 – 1256 (146 min)
82 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.866 (short)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.856 – 10 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.855 (just below the PP Pivot) and 1.844 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Small spike fell to the PP Pivot, hovered and reversed. Due to the strong support of the PP Pivot, exit at first sign of hovering or a bounce from the low point. Then a reversal to the 100 SMA followed by a 2nd peak to the S1 Pivot. Then a slow developing reversal to the R2 Mid Pivot.

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.10.2016

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.10.2016
Apr 022016
 

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3_10_2016

3/10/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -51B
Actual: -57B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.786
1st Peak @ 1.752 – 1030:05 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 1.772 – 1030:53 (1 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.734 – 1035 (5 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 1.782 – 1044 (14 min)
48 ticks

Pullback to 1.737 – 1150 (80 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 1.774 – 1205 (95 min)
37 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.767 (short)
Slippage: 9 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.753 – 14 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.754 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Moderate spike with a nice 2nd peak to target the S1 Mid Pivot and LOD. Then a strong and quick reversal to the SMA cluster. Another cycle panned out in the next 1.5 hrs.

6C 06-16 (1 Min) 3.11.2016

 CAN Employment Change  Comments Off on 6C 06-16 (1 Min) 3.11.2016
Apr 012016
 

6C 06-16 (1 Min) 3_11_2016

3/11/2016 Employment Change (0830 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 10.2K
Employment Change Actual: -2.3K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.2%
Rate Actual: 7.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7547
1st peak @ 0.7517 – 0831:03 (2 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 0.7526 – 0831:43 (2 min)
9 ticks

2nd peak @ 0.7513 – 0836 (6 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 0.7596 – 1005 (95 min)
83 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7537
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7518 – 19 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7524 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Nice stable short spike of 30 ticks with a low slippage fill allowed up to 19 ticks to be captured. After a minor 2nd peak, a huge reversal over 1.5 hrs that rode the 13/20 SMAs to nearly reach the R2 Pivot.

6C 03-16 (1 Min) 3.9.2016

 BOC Rate Statement  Comments Off on 6C 03-16 (1 Min) 3.9.2016
Apr 012016
 

6C 03-16 (1 Min) 3_9_2016

3/9/2016 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EST)
Forecast: 0.50%
Actual: 0.50%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7460
—————-
Trap Trade:
))) 1st peak @ 0.7488 – 1001:19 (2 min)
)))28 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7473 – 1003:14 (4 min)
)))-15 ticks
—————-
Final Peak @ 0.7560 – 1139 (99 min)
100 ticks

Reversal to 0.7545 – 1149 (109 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7444 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 0.7435 (in between the LOD/S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7476 (in between the PP Pivot/HOD) / 0.7488 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: The BOC maintained the status quo. This caused a slow moving upward trend. With the slow pace, cancel the order. It developed into a long trend for 100 ticks in the next 1.5 hrs.

ZC 05-16 (1 Min) 3.9.2016

 WASDE - Corn  Comments Off on ZC 05-16 (1 Min) 3.9.2016
Apr 012016
 

ZC 05-16 (1 Min) 3_9_2016

3/9/2016 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 358.00
1st Peak @ 360.25 – 1200:21 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 358.50 – 1200:52 (1 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 361.50 – 1206 (6 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 358.50 – 1223 (23 min)
12 ticks

Expected Fill: 359.25 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Exit: 360.25 – 4 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 361.50 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) – move down a few ticks after small spike

Notes: Small spike offered no slippage fill then peaked just below the HOD and hovered to allow 3-4 ticks to be captured. Then a reversal and 2nd peak for 5 more ticks to the R1 Mid Pivot and a final reversal.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.10.2016

 30y Bond Auction  Comments Off on ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.10.2016
Mar 312016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3_10_2016

3/10/2016 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.50/2.1
Actual: 2.72/2.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 161’25 (1301:30)
1st Peak @ 162’03 – 1303:34 (3 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 161’30 – 1307 (6 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 162’08 – 1326 (25 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 161’31 – 1334 (33 min)
9 ticks

Final Peak @ 162’14 – 1417 (76 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 162’08 – 1436 (95 min)
6 ticks

Expected Fill: 161’28 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 162’02 – 6 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 161’31 (just above the S2 Pivot)

Notes: Nice long spike, but very slow. It also stalled for about 30 sec at 161’29 as the resistance of the 100 SMA and S2 Pivot held it down. Once it broke free, it grabbed another 5 ticks. Then it stepped higher for a 2nd and Final peak as it used the 50 SMA as support.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.9.2016

 10y Bond Auction  Comments Off on ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.9.2016
Mar 312016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3_9_2016

3/9/2016 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 1.73/2.6
Actual: 1.90/2.5
INDECISIVE
Started @ 162’31 (1301)
1st Peak @ 162’28 – 1301:35 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 163’04 – 1302:13 (1 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 162’21 – 1302:54 (2 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 162’31 – 1322 (21 min)
10 ticks

Expected Fill: 162’29 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 163’00 – 3 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 162’25 (just below the S2 Pivot)

Notes: A rare indecisive bond auction. It fell 3 ticks for a no slippage fill then backed off and reversed to the 200 SMA / S2 Mid Pivot. This would have hit the 3 tick stop. Then it fell strongly for a 2nd peak of 10 ticks in less than a min. After that it reversed 10 ticks to the 50/100 SMAs.

Notes: Spike was quick to shoot 6 ticks reaching the 100 SMA then hovering for 20 sec to allow 3 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed to the 200 SMA before climbing for a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks in the next hour.

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 3.4.2016

 Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly  Comments Off on FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 3.4.2016
Mar 302016
 

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 3_4_2016FDAX 03-16 (Second) 3_4_2016

3/4/2016 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 195K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 242K
Previous Revision: +21K to 172K
Rate Forecast: 4.9%
Rate Actual: 4.9%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 9839.0
1st Peak @ 9876.0 – 0830:01 (1 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 9848.0 – 0830:23 (1 min)
56 ticks

2nd Peak @ 9900.0 – 0836 (6 min)
122 ticks

Reversal to 9769.0 – 0902 (32 min)
262 ticks

Expected Fill: 9863.5 (long)
Slippage: 39 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 9869.5 – 12 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 9870.0 (just above the HOD) – move lower

Notes: Slippage was huge so we will implement limit orders on the next one. Be sure to exit with the hovering before it fell to the stop after 20 sec. A nice 2nd peak for 50 more ticks after 6 min then a huge reversal in the following 30 min.

 Older Entries  Newer Entries