ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.4.2016

 Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly  Comments Off on ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.4.2016
Mar 302016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3_4_2016ZB 06-16 (Second) 3_4_2016

3/4/2016 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 195K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 242K
Previous Revision: +21K to 172K
Rate Forecast: 4.9%
Rate Actual: 4.9%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 163’21
1st Peak @ 163’04 – 0830:01 (1 Min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 163’25 – 0830:27 (1 Min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 163’01 – 0831:13 (2 min)
20 ticks

Final Peak @ 162’08 – 0837 (7 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 163’16 – 0902 (32 min)
40 ticks

Expected Fill: 163’18 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 163’05 – 13 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 163’09 (just below the PP Pivot) / 163’01 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Strong report caused a moderate short move initially, but it recoiled and fully reversed after about 30 sec. A profit target of 13 ticks or less would have filled. If not filled, look to exit on the hovering at 163’10 at the PP Pivot. If you did not exit, the reversal would have stopped you out with 5 ticks in the middle of the :31 bar. Then it fell strongly again and kept stepping lower for a final peak of 45 ticks in 6 min as it eclipsed the S2 Mid Pivot. After the final peak, it followed the reversal of the equity markets and reversed for 40 ticks to the 200 SMA.

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 3.2.2016

 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change  Comments Off on FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 3.2.2016
Mar 282016
 

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 3_2_2016

3/2/2016 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 185K
Actual: 214K
Previous revision: -12K to 193K
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 9745.0
1st Peak @ 9763.0 – 0815:26 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 9745.0 – 0818 (3 min)
36 ticks

Pullback to 9760.5 – 0821 (6 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 9724.5 – 0833 (18 min)
72 ticks

Expected Fill: 9750.0 (long)
Slippage: 4 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 9762.5 – 25 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 9760.0 (30 ticks and above the 50 SMA)

Notes: Nice stable spike peaked after 26 sec, then reversed after hovering above the 50 SMA. Look to exit on the hovering before seeing profit slip away. No 2nd peak, but still a decent pullback to the 50 SMA followed by a reversal.

HG 05-16 (1 Min) 2.29.2016

 HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on HG 05-16 (1 Min) 2.29.2016
Mar 272016
 

HG 05-16 (1 Min) 2_29_2016

2/29/2016 CNY Caixin Flash Manufacturing PMI (2045 EST)
Forecast: 48.4
Actual: 48.0
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 2.1175
No Move on :31 Bar

1st Peak @ 2.1040 – 2105 (20 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 2.1095 – 2117 (32 min)
11 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel the order with no move on the :31 bar. Delayed short move of 27 ticks occurred in the next 20 min.

HG 05-16 (1 Min) 2.29.2016

 Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on HG 05-16 (1 Min) 2.29.2016
Mar 272016
 

HG 05-16 (1 Min) 2_29_2016

2/29/2016 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2000 EST)
Forecast: 49.4
Actual: 49.0
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.1235
1st Peak @ 2.1175 – 2000:21 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 2.1225 – 2001:15 (2 min)
10 ticks

Final Peak @ 2.1145 – 2032 (32 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 2.1185 – 2043 (43 min)
8 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.1215
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 2.1180 – 7 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.1170 (just above the S1 Pivot) – move a few ticks higher

Notes: Average short move for 12 ticks to target the S1 Pivot. Look to exit at the hovering in the middle of the :31 bar. After that it chopped and eventually achieved a final peak for 6 more ticks after 30 min as it used the falling 50 SMA as resistance.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3.3.2016

 GBP Services PMI  Comments Off on 6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3.3.2016
Mar 272016
 

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3_3_2016

3/3/2016 GBP Services PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 55.1
Actual: 52.7
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 1.4062
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.4042 – 0430:01 (1 min)
)))-20 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.4059 – 0430:04 (1 min)
)))17 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.4033 – 0433 (3 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.4072 – 0439 (9 min)
39 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.4084 – 0456 (26 min)
51 ticks
Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.4039 (on the S1 Mid Pivot) / 1.4024 (just above the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.4082 (in between the OOD and R1 Mid Pivot) / 1.4097 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel as it was short of the inner long tier and recoiled instantly. It slowly fell for a 2nd peak just below the S1 Mid Pivot before reversing.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3.9.2016

 GBP Manufacturing Production  Comments Off on 6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3.9.2016
Mar 272016
 

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3_9_2016

3/9/2016 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 0.2%
Actual: 0.7%
Previous revision: -0.1% to -0.3%
SPIKE / REVERSE (DULL FILL)
Started @ 1.4229
1st Peak @ 1.4216 – 0430:02 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.4230 – 0430:05 (1 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 1.4221 – 0430:30 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.4237 – 0441 (11 min)
16 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4224 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 1.4217 – 7 ticks (likely exit – 1.4223 – 1 tick)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4211 (on the PP Pivot) – move higher

Notes: Small reaction in the wrong direction that was quick to recoil and did not want to fall lower than the initial spike. Possibly due to the long move in progress and the support of the 50 SMA with the OOD and PP Pivot looming below. A profit target of 7 or less would have filled on the immediate spike, otherwise look for an exit near breakeven in the middle of the :31 bar.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3.2.2016

 GBP Construction PMI  Comments Off on 6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3.2.2016
Mar 272016
 

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3_2_2016

3/2/2016 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 55.5
Actual: 54.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3943
1st Peak @ 1.3933 – 0431:24 (2 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.3944 – 0433 (3 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3915 – 0445 (15 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.3994 – 0609 (99 min)
79 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.3939 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.3934 – 5 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.3927 (just below the LOD)

Notes: Small initial spike recoiled then fell again in the middle of the :31 bar. Due to the decisive results, propensity for a 2nd peak, and lack of a key support level above the LOD, stay patient. It fell for a 2nd peak breaking through the S1 Mid Pivot just after. Then it reversed into a long trend lasting about 1.5 hrs for 79 ticks to the HOD / R1 Pivot.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3.1.2016

 GBP Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3.1.2016
Mar 272016
 

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3_1_2016

3/1/2016 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 52.3
Actual: 50.8
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.3943
1st Peak @ 1.3909 – 0431:30 (2 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 1.3962 – 0448 (18 min)
53 ticks

Pullback to 1.3941 – 0503 (33 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.4021 – 0546 (76 min)
80 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.3938 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 1.3910 – 28 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.3917 (just below the LOD)

Notes: Nice short reaction that fell to nearly reach the PP Pivot after 90 sec. Then a nice reversal followed to the R1 Pivot initially, then a long trend in the next hour.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 3.3.2016

 Monthly Retail Sales  Comments Off on 6A 03-16 (1 Min) 3.3.2016
Mar 262016
 

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 3_3_2016

3/3/2016 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7355
————
Trap Trade:
)))Whipsaw between 0.7358 and 0.7345 – 1930:10 (1 min)
)))+3 / – 10 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7337 – 2007 (37 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7344 (just below the LOD) / 0.7336 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7365 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7376 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Small whipsaw would have just missed the inner long tier in the first second, then slowly drifted lower in the next 37 min. Cancel the order on the dull move.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 3.2.2016

 Monthly Trade Balance  Comments Off on 6A 03-16 (1 Min) 3.2.2016
Mar 262016
 

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 3_2_2016

3/2/2016 Monthly Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Forecast: -3.22B
Actual: -2.94B
Previous Revision: +0.02B to -3.52B
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7287
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7293 – 1930:12 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7288 – 1932:06 (3 min)
)))-5 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.7279 – 1945 (15 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7305 – 2019 (49 min)
18 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7279 (just below the LOD / 0.7272 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.7295 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7302 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel the order on a dull move and nearly matching results.

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