4/11/2013 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous:  3.25/2.4
Actual: 3.00/2.5
INDECISIVE
Started @ 146’09 (1301)
1st Peak @ 146’12 – 1302 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 146’01 – 1302 (1 min)
11 ticks

Notes:  Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late.  The highest yield fell sizably compared to last month.  This caused an unfortunate and shocking indecisive reaction on one of our safest reports to date.  It spiked long for 3 ticks, then immediately reversed for 11 ticks, then pulled back to breakeven.  With JOBB you would have filled long at 146’12 with no slippage, then stopped with 3 ticks of slippage for an 8 tick loss.  The spike started just above all 3 SMAs and the PP Pivot in a tight fist.  The long move came within 1 tick of the HOD, then the short move crossed all levels of support and bottomed at any area of support that held twice in the past 4 hours.  After the initial indecision, it traded sideways for about 30 min, then fell for 2 more ticks beyond the :01 bar bottom and reversed up to the origin.

2/14/2013 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous:  3.07/2.8
Actual: 3.18/2.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 143’04 (1301)
1st Peak @ 143’11 – 1303 (2 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 143’03 – 1307 (6 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 143’21 – 1329 (28 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 143’09 – 1411 (70 min)
12 ticks

Notes:  Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late.  The highest yield rose more than expected from the previous auction, 1 month after the FED started to buy $45B in long term bonds each month.  This caused a small rally of 7 ticks.  With JOBB you would fill long at 143’07 with no slippage.  The spike could not go much higher than the R2 Pivot given that it was extending the HOD, so it quickly hit 7 ticks then pulled back 4 ticks on the same bar.  I had my exit at 143’12, looking for 5 ticks.  When it did not initially fill, I moved it down to 143’10 and it filled later on the 2nd peak rise.  After peaking, it reversed back to the origin, then garnered a 2nd peak of 17 ticks nearly 30 min later.  The final reversal fell back to the R2 Pivot and 100 SMA for 12 ticks about 40 min after the 2nd peak.

3/13/2013 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous:  2.05/2.7
Actual: 2.03/3.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 141’05 (1301)
1st Peak @ 141’14 – 1302 (1 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 141’20 – 1324 (23 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 141’14 – 1346 (45 min)
6 ticks

Notes:  Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late.  The highest yield fell marginally from the previous auction but still remained at a high level 2 months after the FED commenced buying bonds. This caused the ZB to spike long for 9 ticks.  With JOBB you would fill long at 141’08 with no slippage.  It crossed all 3 major SMAs near the origin, then peaked just below the PP Pivot.  Look to exit at 141’12 or 13 for 4-5 ticks.  After the spike, it retreated a bit, then geared up for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks at the OOD in about 20 min.  The final reversal reclaimed 6 ticks in another 20 min, above the 50 SMA.