Oil Inventory | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 08-13 (1 Min) 6.19.2013

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Jul 142013

6/19/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.5M
Actual: 0.3M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 98.76
1st Peak @ 98.37 – 1032 (2 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 98.71 – 1036 (6 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 98.26 – 1105 (35 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 98.65 – 1146 (76 min)
39 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching small gain on the crude inventories, while gasoline saw a small gain. Commercial oil inventories remain just off of record highs, so the overall high supply likely brought in the bears. We saw a short spike of 39 ticks in 2 min that eclipsed the PP Pivot by 12 ticks, followed by a quick reversal that retreated to the 100/50 SMAs. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 98.65 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it chop between +/- 5 ticks. I decided to set the target for 98.58 and it filled easily on the :32 bar after it was able to overcome the support in the 98.60 area. After the reversal, it fell for a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks, eclipsing the S1 Mid Pivot in the next 30 min. Then it reversed for 39 ticks in about 40 min, reaching the 200 SMA.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 6.12.2013

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Jul 142013

6/12/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.4M
Actual: 2.5M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 95.88
1st Peak @ 95.72 – 1031 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 96.11 – 1031 (1 min)
-39 ticks

2nd Peak @ 95.50 – 1054 (24 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 96.45 – 1124 (54 min)
95 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain on the crude inventories when a small draw was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate gain. Commercial oil inventories remain just off of record highs. We saw a short spike of 16 ticks in 1 min that eclipsed the R1 Pivot, followed by a choppy reversal that crossed the 100/50 SMAs and hit the R2 Mid Pivot for 39 ticks. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 95.76 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop between 3 and 14 ticks in the red. The safe play in this situation would be to collapse the stop loss to about -7 ticks and look to exit as close to break even as possible. Otherwise, you would have been stopped for -15 ticks about 45 sec into the :31 bar. After the :31 bar, it chopped lower to cross the 200 SMA for a 2nd peak of 22 more ticks in 20 min, then it reversed for 95 ticks in 30 min to extend the HOD 15 ticks.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 6.5.2013

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Jul 142013

6/5/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.8M
Actual: -6.3M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 94.02
1st Peak @ 94.27 – 1031 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 94.10 – 1032 (2 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.48 – 1032 (2 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 93.78 – 1107 (37 min)
70 ticks

Notes: Large draw on the crude inventories when a much smaller draw was expected, while gasoline saw a small draw. Commercial oil inventories finally backed off of their record highs as refinery activity saw a sharp rise. Even with the large draw, the bigger picture still has a supply driven market and the long move was restrained. We saw a long spike of 25 ticks in 1 min that eclipsed the HOD and quickly retreated, leaving 17 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 94.16 with 4 ticks of slippage, then seen the large swings between +/- 10 ticks. If you played it out, the secondary ascent would have given you some nice profit of 20 + ticks. If you took a more conservative exit near breakeven, that is okay too. After the 1st peak, the 32 bar achieved a 2nd peak of 21 more ticks that held for several minutes, then it reversed for 70 ticks in 30 min, eclipsing the R1 Mid Pivot and the OOD.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 5.30.2013

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Jun 022013

5/30/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EDT)
Forecast: -0.8M
Actual: 3.0M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 92.29
1st Peak @ 92.89 – 1103 (3 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 92.43 – 1110 (10 min)
46 ticks

Final Peak @ 93.99 – 1146 (46 min)
170 ticks

Reversal to 93.56 – 1159 (59 min)
43 ticks

Notes: Medium gain on the crude inventories when a small draw was expected, while gasoline saw a small draw. Commercial oil inventories achieved another new record at nearly 400 million barrels. The long reaction defies logic as the aggregate news should have caused a short move, but that occasionally happens. We saw a long spike of 60 ticks in 3 min that eclipsed all 3 major SMAs near the origin and peaked at the OOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have seen the market oscillate between 9 ticks below your anchor point up to 5 ticks above for about 30 sec. This should have been cause to cancel the order without a fill. If you left the bracket on the chart, the long order would have filled with no slippage at 92.39, then you would have seen the slow, but steady rise on the remainder of the :31 bar until the beginning of the :33 bar, leaving up to 45 ticks to be captured. After the 1st peak, it reversed back to the 20 SMA 7 min later, then continued to rise for a 2nd peak of 90 more ticks in about 35 min. After that it reversed for 43 ticks before the top of the hour then traded sideways.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 5.22.2013

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Jun 022013

5/22/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.4M
Actual: -0.3M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.75
1st Peak @ 95.27 – 1031 (1 min)
48 ticks

Final Peak @ 94.37 – 1056 (26 min)
138 ticks

Reversal to 95.19 – 1115 (45 min)
82 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching result on the crude, while gasoline saw a healthy gain. Commercial oil inventories continue to be categorized as above their upper limit at record levels. The small change in crude, the large inventory, and the gains in gasoline drove the short move of 48 ticks in 1 min that eclipsed all 3 major SMAs and the S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 95.61 with 4 ticks of slippage. Look to exit in between the 100 SMA and S2 Mid Pivot for about 25 ticks. After the 1st peak, it reversed back to the area of the 100/50 SMAs briefly, then continued to fall also due to the rising dollar on Chmn Bernanke’s testimony. It achieved a final peak of 90 more ticks 25 min later to eclipse the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed back up for 82 ticks to the 100 SMA in the next 20 min.

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 5.15.2013

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May 212013

5/15/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.5M
Actual: -0.6M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 92.62
1st Peak @ 92.30 – 1031 (1 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 92.79 – 1034 (4 min)
49 ticks

2nd Peak @ 92.13 – 1044 (14 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 94.24 – 1217 (107 min)
211 ticks

Notes: Small draw in crude inventories when a small gain was expected, while gasoline saw a medium draw and distillates saw a medium draw. Commercial oil inventories continue to be categorized as above their upper limit. With the small change in crude, and the large inventory, the gains in the cracks drove the short move of 32 ticks in 1 min that eclipsed the S3 Mid. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 92.49 with 3 ticks of slippage. Look to exit at about 92.34 on the S3 Mid Pivot for 15 ticks. The :31 and :32 bars would have filled your order before it reversed for 49 ticks on the next 2 bars to eclipse the 50 SMA. After the initial reversal, it stepped down to a 2nd Peak of 17 more ticks 10 min after the reversal. Then it fanned upward for a strong reversal of 211 ticks in the next 90 min riding the 13 up until it surpassed the S1 Mid Pivot. It is unclear if the long reversal was due to the waning influence of the report or other market conditions.

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 5.8.2013

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May 212013

5/8/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.1M
Actual: 0.2M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 96.16
1st Peak @ 96.36 – 1032 (2 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 95.81 – 1041 (11 min)
55 ticks

Notes: Little change in crude inventories when a small gain was expected, while gasoline saw a small draw and distillates saw a moderate gain. Commercial oil inventories continue to be categorized as above their upper limit and reached a new record. This caused a long move of 20 ticks that eclipsed the 50 and 20 SMAs, and the R1 Pivot, peaking on the :32 bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 96.27 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it reverse and bounce between breakeven and 17 ticks in the red. Look to exit within 5 ticks of breakeven at or below the 50 SMA with a limit order. The :32 bar gave a few more ticks before the reversal began. In a volatile and choppy manner, it fell for 55 ticks in 11 min to eclipse the 200 SMA and OOD. After that it chopped sideways between the OOD and R1 Pivot.

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 5.1.2013

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May 052013

5/1/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.2M
Actual: 6.7M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 91.00
1st Peak @ 90.35 – 1033 (3 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 90.86 – 1105 (35 min)
51 ticks

2nd Peak @ 90.11 – 1158 (88 min)
89 ticks

Reversal to 91.03 – 1317 (167 min)
92 ticks

Notes: Large gain in crude inventories when a smaller gain was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw and distillates saw a small draw. Commercial oil inventories continue to be categorized as above their upper limit. This caused a short move of 65 ticks that bottomed on the :33 bar. The initial spike used the 100 and 50 SMAs as resistance to propel the move, then crossed the S3 Pivot and extended the LOD 27 ticks. Then the reversal took over to reclaim 51 ticks in about 30 min up to the 100 SMA. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 90.87 with 3 ticks of slippage. Look to exit at about 90.62 with the LOD and S3 Pivot. The :32 bar would have crashed through there giving you 25 ticks. After the initial reversal, it stepped down to a 2nd Peak of 24 more ticks about 90 min after the report, using the 50 SMA as resistance. Then it reversed for 92 ticks in about 80 min crossing all 3 majors SMAs and the S3 Pivot.

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 4.24.2013

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May 052013

4/24/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.8M
Actual: 0.9M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 90.31
1st Peak @ 90.47 – 1031 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 90.11 – 1031 (1 min)
-36 ticks

2nd Peak @ 91.11 – 1202 (92 min)
80 ticks

Reversal to 90.71 – 1238 (128 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Minimal gain in crude inventories when a more sizable gain was expected, while gasoline saw a large draw and distillates saw no change. Commercial oil inventories are categorized as above their upper limit though. This prompted an indecisive scenario that rallied for 16 ticks first before reversing for 36 ticks on the :31 bar. The gasoline draw caused the long move, then the large inventories of crude reversed the sentiment. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 90.44 with 3 ticks of slippage, then been stopped almost immediately as it left the wick naked at 90.26 with 3 ticks of slippage. After the initial indecision, it chopped sideways and eventually returned to the bullish trend in place before the report as the gasoline results drove it up to over $91 about an hour after the report.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 4.17.2013

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May 052013

4/17/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.2M
Actual: -1.2M
INDECISIVE…DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 87.88
1st Peak @ 87.61 – 1031 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 87.96 – 1031 (1 min)
35 ticks

Final Peak @ 86.06 – 1230 (120 min)
182 ticks

Reversal to 86.89 – 1325 (175 min)
52 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in crude inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a minimal draw and distillates saw a healthy gain. This prompted a bearish short move overall that was spoiled by a quick reversal on the :31 bar. The distillate gain won over in the long run, but the draw on oil caused the initial indecision. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 87.77 with 1 tick of slippage, then been stopped a few sec later as it popped up at 87.96 with 4 ticks of slippage. After the initial indecision, it struggled briefly to conquer the support of the 200 SMA, then fell for several lows, eventually bottoming at 86.06 for 182 ticks 2 hrs later. The reversal reclaimed 52 ticks in about 1 hr, nearly reaching the 200 SMA.

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