CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.01.12

 Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly  Comments Off on CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.01.12
Jun 012012
 


CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.01.12

6/1/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 151K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 69K
Previous Revision: -38K to 77K
Rate Forecast: 8.1%
Rate Actual: 8.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 83.87
1st Peak @ 82.85 – 0231 (1 min)
102 ticks

2nd Peak @ 82.56 – 0237 (7 min)
131 ticks

Reversal to 83.76 – 0308 (38 min)
120 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report across the board that fell short or the forecast with Jobs and the rate with a large downward revision to the previous report causing a healthy short spike and follow on 2nd peak. The market was already in a very bearish mood with the Euro-zone debt crisis, so after this news came out, things shifted into liquidation mode. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 83.80 and had an opportunity to close out with at least 60 ticks. The initial drop ran out of gas at the S3 Pivot, then the 2nd peak was able to dip lower for 29 more ticks briefly before the reversal took hold. The reversal yielded 120 ticks in about 30 min after the 2nd peak.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 05.31.12

 Prelim GDP  Comments Off on CL 10 12 (1 Min) 05.31.12
May 312012
 


CL 10 12 (1 Min) 05.31.12

5/31/2012 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.9%
Actual: 1.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 88.57
1st Peak@ 88.47 – 0231 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 88.67 – 0234 (4 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 88.07 – 0246 (16 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 88.45 – 0300 (30 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast, but was released at the same time as weekly unemployment claims which came in fairly negative. With a matching GDP reading, most of the attention was given to the unemployment claims. The market had been in a selling mood prior to the report, so all 3 major SMAs were above the action. This resulted in a small first peak of 10 ticks, a reversal, then a 2nd peak of 50 ticks that took about 10 min to pan out. This report was not recommended to trade with JOBB due to the combined release, but the 2nd peak would have been a good manual trade. When you see the :39 to :42 bars go sideways and fail to rise above the 13 SMA, that is a good entry for a short trade in the 88.58 area. I would exit on the 44 bar after 2 long red bars and the long tail developed for at least 30 ticks. Then the reversal rebounded for 38 ticks in 14 min to peak at the pit open.

NG 07 12 (1 Min) 05.31.12

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 07 12 (1 Min) 05.31.12
May 312012
 


NG 07 12 (1 Min) 05.31.12

5/31/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 75B
Actual: 71B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 2.421
1st Peak @ 2.436 / Reverse to 2.390 – 0431 (1 min)
15 ticks / -31 ticks

Reversal top at 2.440 – 0511 (41 min)
50 ticks

Notes: A nearly matching report caused indecision and a premature long spike of 15 ticks before seeing a drop of 31 ticks. After seeing the indecisive reaction and noting the near matching report, it would be safe and reasonable to sell the peak and buy the dip as big oscillations will happen for about 1 hr. In this case, use the 200 as the floor of support and buy when it drops a few ticks under, then sell as it approaches or eclipse the 50 SMA. The long move at 0505 broke out of the report trend. If you sold at about 2.420 based on the peak earlier, use the PP Pivot at 2.428 as the stop loss setting and the pivot for a long move . When it broke long there, the market sentiment changed.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.31.12

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.31.12
May 312012
 


CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.31.12

5/31/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0500 HI time / 1100 EDT)
Forecast: 0.2M
Actual: 2.2M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 86.62
1st Peak @ 86.38 – 0501 (1 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.28 – 0506 (6 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 86.68 – 0510 (10 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Medium gain in supply and offset of the forecast caused a relatively small but safe spike and 2nd peak. With the market selling off dramatically before the report, all the SMAs were above the price action and the market was reluctant to go much lower. The 2nd peak tested the S2 Pivot before bouncing long into the reversal.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.29.12

 CB Consumer Confidence  Comments Off on CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.29.12
May 292012
 


CL 08 12 (1 Min) 05.29.12

5/29/2012 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 69.8
Actual: 64.9
Previous revision: -0.5 to 68.7
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 91.58
1st Peak @ 91.35 – 0401 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 91.63 – 0407 (7 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast with a small downward revision to the previous report. This caused a short reaction that had to fight through the 50 SMA before bouncing off of the PP Pivot making it unable to reach the 100 SMA. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 91.50, then had an opportunity to close out with a 5-10 ticks of profit as it hovered between the 50 SMA and the PP Pivot. The reversal was able to climb back above the 50 SMA to almost eclipse the R1 Pivot.

NG 06 12 (1 Min) 05.24.12

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 06 12 (1 Min) 05.24.12
May 242012
 


NG 06 12 (1 Min) 05.24.12

5/24/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 77B
Actual: 77B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 2.708
1st Peak @ 2.688 / Reverse to 2.742 – 0431 (1 min)
-20 ticks / 34 ticks

Reversal bottom at 2.664 – 0446
44 ticks

Notes: An exactly matching report, caused indecision and a double wicker of 54 ticks from top to bottom initially that spanned out to 80 ticks at its max. After seeing the double wicker and noting the matching report. It would be safe and reasonable to sell the peak and buy the dip as big oscillations will happen for about 1 hr. As it settles, the movement becomes closer to the centerline and the swings are lesser in magnitude.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.24.12

 Durable Goods  Comments Off on CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.24.12
May 242012
 


CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.24.12

5/24/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 1.1%
Core Actual:-0.6%
Previous revision:+0.3% to -0.8%
Regular Forecast: 0.5%
Regular Actual:0.2%
Previous Revision:+0.5% to -3.7%
SPIKE/RETRACE
Started @ 90.62
Peak @ 90.40 – 0234 (4 min)
22 ticks

Retrace to 90.74 – 0238 (8 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Report came in fairly negative overall with the current reports disappointing while the previous revisions were mildly positive. Report was released at the same time as the weekly unemployment claims, which came in matching at 370K. The spike crossed no SMAs or Pivots, but was engaged in a slow downtrend over the previous 90 min, so the oversold market was reluctant to go short much on the bearish news. With JOBB you would have filled short and had an opportunity to close out with about 10 ticks on the :32 bar. The reversal fought through all 3 SMAs to eclipse the 100, before pulling back.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.23.12

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.23.12
May 232012
 


CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.23.12

5/23/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.8M
Actual: 0.9M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 90.79
1st Peak @ 90.44 – 0431 (1 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 90.73 – 0435 (5 min)
29 ticks

2nd Peak @ 90.18 – 0450 (20 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 90.63 – 0456 (26 min)
45 ticks

Notes: Flat result overall as it matched the forecast and was near 0. With the market in a moderate downtrend prior to the report, the report essentially carried on with the trend. No SMAs were crossed, but the S1 Pivot provided resistance on the :30 and :31 bars to keep it from going long. With JOBB, you would have seen the long wick come near your stop, then back off. After no fill for 10 sec, close out. The drop did not occur until 30 sec into the :31 bar. This would have been safe, but after the initial dull reaction, the market has no predictable conviction. The 2nd Peak claimed another 26 ticks to end the overall downtrend. Then the reversal rose up to hit the 50 SMA.

NG 06 12 (1 Min) 05.17.12

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 06 12 (1 Min) 05.17.12
May 172012
 


NG 06 12 (1 Min) 05.17.12

5/17/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 25B
Actual: 61B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.562
1st Peak @ 2.528 – 0432 (2 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.507 – 0513 (43 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 2.547 – 0556 (86 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Spike crossed no major SMAs, but the S1 Pivot was at the origin of the :31 bar. With a decent gain in supply and large delta from the expected gain, the market was forced short for a prolonged period going for 2 lower peaks and failing to reverse and sustain a rebound for quite some time.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.17.12

 Philly FED Manufacturing Index  Comments Off on CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.17.12
May 172012
 


CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.17.12

5/17/2012 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 10.3
Actual:-5.8
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 93.59
1st Peak @ 93.15 – 0402 (2 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 93.81 – 0411 (11 min)
66 ticks

Notes: Report fell strongly short of forecast causing a healthy 44 tick spike that sliced through the 200 SMA and PP Pivot with conviction about halfway on its downward path. SIcne the market had been in a downward trend for 1 hour prior to the report release, it bounced strongly for a 66 tick reversal in only 9 min that crossed all 3 SMAs and the PP Pivot finding its nadir just above the 100 SMA.

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