CL 05 12 (1 Min) 03.28.12

 Durable Goods  Comments Off on CL 05 12 (1 Min) 03.28.12
Mar 282012
 


CL 05 12 (1 Min) 03.28.12

03/28/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 1.6%
Core Actual: 1.6%
Previous revision:+0.2% to -3.0%
Regular Forecast: 3.0%
Regular Actual:2.2%
Previous Revision:+0.4% to -3.6%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 106.13
Peak @ 106.02 / retrace to 106.15 – 0331 (1 min)
-11 / 2 ticks

Notes: Report came in matching the forecast with the more influential core reading, while the regular reading fell short, and there were small upward revisions to the previous reports. This prevented the market from executing a spike. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 106.05 with slippage and observed the market retreat to bob between 10 ticks in the red and the breakeven point. I setup a buy limit at the breakeven point and my order filled about halfway through the :01 candle. You could also manually close when you see the price close to breakeven, but you are not likely to secure the best exit that way. Notice the low point of the :01 candle is a triple bottom with the :28 and :15 candles before it. If you waited this one out, you would have gotten lucky and seen a small profit on the :03 candle as it briefly dipped through the S2 line.

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 03.27.12

 CB Consumer Confidence  Comments Off on CL 05 12 (1 Min) 03.27.12
Mar 272012
 


CL 05 12 (1 Min) 03.27.12

3/27/2012 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 70.3
Actual: 70.2
Previous revision: +0.8 to 71.6
DULL REACTION

Notes: Report matched the forecast almost exactly with a small upward revision to the previous report. This caused a quick pop upward on the 04:00 candle that would have filled you long with JOBB at about 107.62. It reversed for almost 30 ticks before falling again. Then it retreated down to bob around 3-7 ticks in the red before it would have hot your stop loss on the 04:02 candle. Close out with a handful of ticks loss rather than wait for it to hit your stop loss. Do not look to trade a reverse on this either as the influence of the report wears off quickly and the volume of the spike was low so there is little to reverse.

NG 04 12 (1 Min) 03.22.12

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 04 12 (1 Min) 03.22.12
Mar 222012
 


NG 04 12 (1 Min) 03.22.12

3/22/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 10B
Actual: 11B
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 2.306
1st Peak @ 2.250 – 0431 (1 min)
56 ticks

Reversal to 2.297 – 0433 (3 min)
47 ticks

Notes: Spike crossed no major SMAs, but it crossed the S2 line about halfway down its path. The report also came in nearly matching the forecast, so the retracement was big and the reversal recaptured nearly all of the drop by the 0433 candle.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.15.12

 Philly FED Manufacturing Index  Comments Off on CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.15.12
Mar 152012
 


CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.15.12

3/15/2011 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 11.9
Actual:12.5
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 105.43
1st Peak @ 105.50 – 0401 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 105.33 – 0402 (2 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report barely exceeded forecast, but basically matched it causing a dull reaction. I closed out after my order did not fill in 15 seconds. If you did not cancel the order, you would have filled long at about 105.49, then seen it pull back with about 3-4 ticks of heat at the close of the candle. Close out with the minor loss before it drops further.

NG 04 12 (1 Min) 03.15.12

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 04 12 (1 Min) 03.15.12
Mar 152012
 


NG 04 12 (1 Min) 03.15.12

3/15/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -58B
Actual: -64B
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 2.289
1st Peak @ 2.334 – 0431 (1 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 2.288 – 0449 (19 min)
44 ticks

Notes: Spike crossed no major SMAs, but it peaked just below the R1 line. Reversal came back to the 50 SMA 19 min after the report.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.14.12

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.14.12
Mar 142012
 


CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.14.12

3/14/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: 2.2M
Actual: 1.8M
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 106.56
1st Peak @ 107.02 – 0432 (2 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 106.58 – 0452 (22 min)
44 ticks

Notes: Spiked upward without crossing any SMAs, so despite the oscillations, when you see the wick on the 0431 candle, setup a limit exit order near the top of the wick and wait for the market to hit it. In this case the spike bled over into the 0432 candle and did not really reverse until the 0434 candle due to no SMAs to pull it back. Eventually it fell, but the reversal stalled and took an unusually long 22 min. The market dramatically fell for the next 30 minutes, but this was not due to the influence of the report.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.13.12

 Retail Sales  Comments Off on CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.13.12
Mar 132012
 


CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.13.12

3/13/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.8%
Core Actual:0.9%
Previous revision:+0.4% to 1.1%
Regular Forecast: 1.1%
Regular Actual: 1.1%
Previous Revision:+0.2% to 0.6%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 106.78
1st Peak @ 106.88 – 0231 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 106.92 – 0236 (6 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 106.74 – 0243 (13 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Due to matching the forecast overall and with the CL caught in a tight FIST at the time of the release, little impact to the market was felt. If you used JOBB, you probably got in long at 106.83 or 106.84 on the initial spike and then saw it retrace to loiter in the 106.76 – 106.83 range. Normally I advise to get out when you see this reaction and even eat a small loss rather than wait for it to potentially hit your stop loss. However my experience and intuition led me to stay in. Looking at the 15 min chart, the 200 SMA was at 106.80 and the 5 min chart 200 SMA was at 106.77. These served as powerful barriers. I moved up my stop loss to 106.75 and placed a pending sell limit at 106.86 based on the height of the 0831 candle at 106.88 and the double bottom at 106.75. Then my exit order was filled on the 0836 candle with 3 ticks of profit on the 2nd peak ascent. As the peak magnitudes were small, the reversal was also small.

CL 04 12 (2 Range) 03.09.12

 Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly  Comments Off on CL 04 12 (2 Range) 03.09.12
Mar 092012
 


CL 04 12 (2 Range) 03.09.12

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.09.12

 Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly  Comments Off on CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.09.12
Mar 092012
 


CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.09.12

3/9/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 209K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:227K
Previous Revision:+41K to 284K
Rate Forecast: 8.3%
Rate Actual: 8.3%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 107.00
1st Peak @ 107.42 / Reversal to 106.90 – 0331 (1 min)
42 ticks / -10 ticks

Reversal to 106.13 – 0406 (36 min)
129 ticks (from peak)

Notes: Unique situation with 6 reports released at the same time. The Unemployment report basically matched the forecast, by modest exceeding the forecast of jobs created, but matching the rate. Normally this report would overshadow all others, but the trade balance report had the worst deficit in 4 yrs giving it more attention and causing the reversal and drop. With JOBB, you would have gotten in long at 107.14 after slippage, then after a rapid spike crossing the R1 line, it retreated to seesaw and hover at the R1 for 5 sec. That is the place to get out before the reversal would have taken away your profit and eventually hit your stop loss without action 52 seconds into the 0331 candle. The reversal spent 15 minutes tethered to the FIST with all SMAs before falling over 100 ticks just after the CL open.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.09.12

 Trade Balance  Comments Off on CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.09.12
Mar 092012
 


CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.09.12

3/9/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (0330 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -48.9B
Actual: -52.6B
Previous Revision: -1.6B to -50.4BINDECISIVE
Started @ 107.00
1st Peak @ 107.42 / Reversal to 106.90 – 0331 (1 min)
42 ticks / -10 ticks

Reversal to 106.13 – 0406 (36 min)
129 ticks (from peak)

Notes: Unique situation with 6 reports released at the same time. The Unemployment report basically matched the forecast, by modest exceeding the forecast of jobs created, but matching the rate. Normally this report would overshadow all others, but the trade balance report had the worst deficit in 4 yrs giving it more attention and causing the reversal and drop. With JOBB, you would have gotten in long at 107.14 after slippage, then after a rapid spike crossing the R1 line, it retreated to seesaw and hover at the R1 for 5 sec. That is the place to get out before the reversal would have taken away your profit and eventually hit your stop loss without action 52 seconds into the 0331 candle. The reversal spent 15 minutes tethered to the FIST with all SMAs before falling over 100 ticks just after the CL open.

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