-030812.jpg "Click to enlarge")
3/8/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: -85B
Actual: -80B
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 2.310
1st Peak @ 2.250 – 0531 (1 min)
60 ticks
Reversal to 2.266 – 0536 (6 min)
16 ticks
Notes: Spike crossed the 3 major SMAs relatively close to the origin, so little pullback effect was seen then settled just below the S2 line. Reversal is small, and did not last. Market seesawed around the S2 line after the report. No premature spike.
-030112.jpg "Click to enlarge")
3/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0500 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 54.6
Actual:52.4
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 107.65
1st Peak @ 107.24 – 0401 (1 min)
41 ticks
Reversal to 107.97 – 0402 (2 min)
73 ticks
Notes: Report fell short of forecast causing a 41 tick spike that fought through the 100 and 200 SMAs bottoming out just below the 200 and hovering in that area. Since it stalled just below the 200, this is as much as you are going to get out of this report. The reversal was caged between the 100 and the 200 for 10 minutes then broke out long, straddled the 50 and rose for a 73 tick rise up to 107.97 at 0526.
-020112.jpg "Click to enlarge")
3/7/2012 Monthly ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0315 HI time / 0815 EST)
Forecast: 204K
Actual:216K
Previous Revision: +3K to 173K
DULL REACTION
Started @ 105.13 (before premature spike)
Peak @ 105.20 / Retrace to 105.09 – 0316 (1 min)
7 ticks / -4 ticks
Notes: Report slightly exceeded forecast, with a negligible previous report revision. The 0315 candle spiked up at the end 7 ticks before reversing for 11 ticks. If using JOBB, your order would not have filled long due to the fast movement and slippage. Close out the order after it did not fill.
-030712.jpg "Click to enlarge")
3/7/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.0M
Actual: 0.8M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 104.51
1st Peak @ 104.83 – 0531 (1 min)
32 ticks
Reversal to 104.62 – 0533 (3 min)
21 ticks
2nd Peak @ 105.00 – 0535 (5 min)
49 ticks
Reversal to 104.54 – 0549 (19 min)
Notes: Spiked up 32 ticks crossing the 100 SMA, then pulled back 21 ticks before gearing up for a 2nd peak, crossing the 100 SMA and briefly topping the 200 SMA, but caught in the resistance. After bouncing around the 200 SMA, it fell to 104.54.
-030512.jpg "Click to enlarge")
3/5/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 56.1
Actual:57.3K
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSAL
Started @ 106.70
Peak @ 107.05 – 0505 (5 min)
35 ticks
Reversal to 106.07 – 0531 (31 min)
98 ticks
Notes: Positive report exceeded the forecast coupled with a better than expected factory orders report at the same time. This caused a slow rise of 35 ticks over 5 minutes that crossed both the 50 and 100 SMAs, then a very large reversal of 98 ticks over 25 minutes that was not likely due to the report, but larger longterm overbought considerations. With JOBB I would have gotten in at 106.75 and closed at the 100 when it appeared to hit resistance.
-022912.jpg "Click to enlarge")
2/29/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.8M
Actual: -0.2M
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 106.62
1st Peak @ 106.09 – 0531 (1 min)
53 ticks
Reversal to 106.75 – 0536 (6 min)
66 ticks
Notes: Report released in the middle of FED chair Bernanke testimony before Congress. Market was already in a down trend. Report spiked down, then reversed almost up to the 100 SMA.
-022912.jpg "Click to enlarge")
2/29/2012 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 2.8%
Actual: 3.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 106.92
1st Peak@ 107.13 – 0331 (1 min)
21 ticks
Reversal to 106.67 – 0336 (36 min)
46 ticks
Notes: Report was moderately positive, however under current market conditions the reverse reaction tends to be true, as good data has been triggering the sale of US bonds. Quick pop up to 107.13 then seesawed between 107.00 and 107.10 for the rest of the minute before falling significantly on the 0332 candle due to crossing both the 100 and 200 SMAs. I would close out around 107.08 by setting a stop limit order there. The reversal doubled the initial spike by slicing through all SMAs, pulling back to the 50 SMA, then falling more to bottom out at 46 ticks off the peak on the 0336 candle. Then we saw a recovery back to the 200 SMA before reversing to the CL open. The activity after 0336 to about 0430 was due to the influence of the report (at least partially), but not predictable.
-022812.jpg "Click to enlarge")
2/28/2011 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 63.1
Actual: 70.8
Previous revision: +0.4 to 61.5
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 108.48 *spiked prematurely in last :03 of 0500 candle about 14 ticks, but not represented by start level.
1st Peak @ 108.79 – 0501 (1 min)
31 ticks
Reversal to 108.10 – 0516 (16 min)
69 ticks (2x bottom)
Notes: Report strongly exceeded forecast with a small upward previous revision. This caused a spike of 31 ticks not counting the premature upward 14 tick move upward. It spiked up to cross the PP line and quickly pulled back. The default range of the chart would have left this Pivot Point off the screen on the top. This is a good reminder to check for these in the time before the report breaks, and collapse your screen to bring it into the picture in case the reaction approaches. The spike was quick and promptly dropped 8 ticks. If you had a stop limit set there before the spike, it would have filled, but not likely on a manual close. Reversal yielded 69 ticks to briefly dip below the 200 and 50 SMAs.
-022812.jpg "Click to enlarge")
2/28/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.0%
Core Actual:-3.2%
Previous revision: none
Regular Forecast: -0.8%
Regular Actual:-4.0%
Previous Revision:+0.2% to 3.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 108.48
1st Peak @ 108.03 – 0333 (3 min)
45 ticks
2nd Peak @ 107.62 – 0347 (17 min)
86 ticks
Retrace to 108.27 – 0423 (53 min)
65 ticks
Notes: Report came in extremely negative as the economic websites reported the worst reading in 3 years. The core report and regular report disappointed causing a much larger than normal drop. I did not anticipate the 2nd peak and closed at 108.05 on the 0333 candle as it bounced off of the S1 line there. From 0340 – 0347 had a drastic secondary drop of 60 ticks to achieve a 2nd peak of 86 ticks. Then reversed 65 ticks over 36 minutes for a total influence period of nearly an hour. Remember to be patient if trading the reversal. *Drop at 0401 was due to the CL open.
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2/23/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.9M
Actual: 1.6M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 106.03
1st Peak @ 106.20 / Reversal to 105.95 – 0531 (1 min)
17 ticks / -8 ticks
Notes: Spiked up 17 ticks, hitting the 200 SMA and hovering for a few seconds before reversing. Get out at or near the 200 SMA. Not much magnitude on this report since the forecast was close to the actual report.