Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 02.16.12

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Feb 162012

2/16/2011 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 9.0
Actual:10.2
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 101.87
1st Peak @ 102.26 – 0502 (2 min)
39 ticks

2nd Peak @102.26 – 0506 (6 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 102.00 – 0510 / 0514 (10 min) / 101.90 – 0526 (26 min)
26 ticks (2x bottom) / 36 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded forecast causing a larger than expected spike, 2nd peak, and follow on reversal . The 0401 candle crossed the 50 SMA and PP line upward at about the halfway point, which often causes a pullback and full reversal. SInce the 0401 candle closed 1 tick below its max value, it is worth waiting to see what the 0402 does. It retraced only 3 ticks before rising another 20. I would get out when it hovered at the 100.25 level for more than 8 sec.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 02.16.12

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Feb 162012

2/16/2012 Monthly Building Permits (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 0.68M
Actual: 0.68M
Previous revision: -0.01M to 0.64M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 101.02
1st Peak @ 101.18 – 0331 (1 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 101.35 – 0342/0346/0347 (12/16/17 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Report matched forecast with a small previous revision. Report broke on Thursday at the same time as weekly unemployment claims (very positive at only 348K) and PPI (negative at .1%). I would not advise trading this report as 3 medium movers were breaking at the same time. In this case the positive Unemployment report drove the action. First peak at the 200 SMA; 2nd peak at the S1.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 02.15.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Feb 152012

2/15/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.8M
Actual: -0.2M
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 101.76
1st Peak @ 102.11 – 0533 (3 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 101.57 – 0539 (9 min)
54 ticks

Notes: Report spike crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs, then peaked at the 200 SMA or just a little above. The 0532 candle did follow to recover the pullback at the end of the 0531 candle, but this usually will not happen, so get out when it hits the 200 SMA.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 02.14.12

Retail Sales Comments Off

Feb 142012

2/14/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual:0.7%
Previous revision:-0.3% to -0.5%
Regular Forecast: 0.8%
Regular Actual:0.4%
Previous Revision:-0.1% to 0.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 101.55
1st Peak @ 101.44 / retrace to 101.63 – 0331 (1 min)
-11 / +8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 101.22 – 0334 (4 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 101.47 – 0343 (13 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Report was mixed, mostly falling short of forecast causing a downward spike after a bit of indecision. In this case the market spiked up prior to falling and would have gotten you in long with the JOBB strategy. Either take the stop loss after seeing the volatility, or try to close out with minimal loss / gain.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 02.10.12

Trade Balance Comments Off

Feb 102012

2/10/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: -48.1B
Actual: -48.8B
Previous Revision: +0.7B to -47.1B
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 98.05
1st Peak @ 98.33 – 0334 / 0338 (4/8 min)
28 ticks (2x top)

Retrace to 98.08 – 0341 (11 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Report mildly fell short of forecast, but previous report revised mildy upward. Reaction was positive, peaking at the 50 SMA then hovering in a range for 5 min before reversing to S3 line.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 02.08.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Feb 082012

2/8/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.9M
Actual: 0.3M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 100.15
1st Peak @ 100.30 / Reversal to 99.63 – 0531 (1 min)
15 ticks / -42 ticks

Notes: Spiked up 15 ticks then quickly reversed. This one would hit your stop loss. The market was caught in a FIST before the report. It straddled the 100 SMA on the release, went up then reversed to go through all the major indicators.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 02.03.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Feb 032012

2/3/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 150K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:243K
Previous Revision: +3K to 200K
Rate Forecast: 8.5%
Rate Actual:8.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 96.41
1st Peak @ 97.26 – 0331 (1 min)
85 ticks

2nd Peak @ 97.47 – 0338 (8 min)
106 ticks

Reversal to 96.66 – 0351 (21 min)
81 ticks

Notes: Strongly positive report that greatly exceeded the forecast with Jobs and the rate with a negligible upward revision to the previous report causing a healthy spike upward and follow on 2nd peak. The jobs created were legitimate even if the rate job was “cooked”, so the reaction was decidedly positive. I would wait for the 2nd peak and close out in the 97.40 range.

CL 03 12 (2 Range) 02.03.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Feb 032012

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 02.03.12

Factory Orders Comments Off

Feb 032012

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 02.01.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Feb 012012

2/1/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.2M
Actual: 4.2M
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 99.27
1st Peak @ 98.58 – 0532 (2 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 98.99 – 0539 (9 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Report spike was free and clear of all indicators, so the peak was seen on the 2nd candle. Reversal closed the gap up to hit the 13 SMA.

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