Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 02.01.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Feb 012012

2/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0500 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 54.6
Actual:54.1
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 98.77
1st Peak @ 98.89 – 0401 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 98.60 – 0402 (2 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report fell mildly short of forecast causing a minor spike (in the wrong direction), and immediate reversal on the 0402 candle. Due to the fall of the market in the previous 30 min, reaction was probably priced in. Still this is an odd reaction as even a 0.5 disparity has caused a 30-40 tick 1st peak in the past. With JOBB, take the meager profit on the 0401 candle as the reaction is clearly underwhelming.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 02.01.12

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Feb 012012

2/1/2012 Monthly ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0315 HI time / 0815 EST)
Forecast: 198K
Actual:170K
Previous Revision:-33K to 292k
INDECISIVE
Started @ 99.11
Peak @ 99.06 / Retrace to 99.26 – 0316 (1 min)
-5 ticks / 15 ticks

Notes: Report mildly fell short of forecast, and previous report revised largely downward. The 0316 candle initially fell would have gotten you in with 1-3 ticks of profit, then hovered for about 7 sec for retracing. I would close out at that point, breaking even or eating a small 2-4 tick loss.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.31.12

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Jan 312012

1/31/2012 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 68.2
Actual: 61.1
Previous revision: +0.3 to 64.8
INDECISIVE
Started @ 100.53
1st Peak @ 100.63 / retrace to 100.42 – 0501 (1 min)
10 ticks / -11 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of forecast with a slight revision to the previous report. This report is an anomaly. No clear reason to analyze why it behaved as it did, but this occasionally happens. Let the stop loss help you mitigate your loss here.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.27.12

Advance GDP Comments Off

Jan 272012

1/27/2012 Quarterly Advance GDP (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 3.0%
Actual: 2.8%
Previous Revision: -0.7% to 1.8%
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 100.24
1st Peak@ 99.80 – 0331 (1 min)
44 ticks

2nd Peak @ 99.30 – 0401/0413 (31/43 min)
94 ticks (2x bottom)

Reversal to 100.40 – 0446 (76 min)
110 ticks

Notes: Report was moderately negative, and the previous revision was strongly negative. This contributed to the downward fan. I would use the JOBB strategy here and stay in for about 45 min where the trend usually ends. After seeing the double bottom at 99.30, I would close out. Then I would trade the reversal for about 30 min.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.26.12

Durable Goods Comments Off

Jan 262012

01/26/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.9%
Core Actual:2.1%
Previous revision:+0.2% to 0.5%
Regular Forecast: 2.1%
Regular Actual:3.0%
Previous Revision:+0.5% to 4.3%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 100.71
Peak @ 100.77 / retrace to 100.63 – 0331 (1 min)
6 / -8 ticks

Notes: Report came in exceeding the forecast overall with moderate upward revisions to the previous reports. Report was released at the same time as weekly unemployment which came in at a disappointing 377K. I would not trade this report as the unemployment claims caused the 0331 candle to be volatile and indecisive. The reaction was restrained overall as the low point was a double bottom at 100.63 and the high point was a double top at 100.86, only a 23 tick swing.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 01.25.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jan 252012

1/25/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.9M
Actual: 3.6M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 98.06
1st Peak @ 98.31 / Reversal to 97.89 – 0531 (1 min)
25 ticks / -17 ticks

Notes: Spiked up about 15 ticks then retreated. Try to close out when the initial spike is less than 25 ticks total otherwise your stop loss will protect you.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 01.19.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jan 192012

1/19/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0600 HI time / 1100 EDT)
Forecast: 2.9M
Actual: -3.4M
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 101.75
1st Peak @ 102.10 – 0601 (1 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 101.47 – 0608 (8 min)
63 ticks

Notes: Report broke on Thurs at 1100 EDT due to Monday holiday. Spiked upward through the 50 and 100 SMAs to hit the 200 SMA and retreated. Reversal almost doubled initial spike in magnitude.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 01.19.12

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Jan 192012

1/19/2011 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 10.7
Actual:7.3
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 102.04
1st Peak @ 101.84 – 0501 (1 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @101.60 – 0506 (6 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 101.92 – 0510 (10 min) / 102.12 – 0527 (27 min)
32 ticks / 52 ticks

Notes: Report mildly fell short of forecast causing a small spike, 2nd peak, and follow on reversal . Market was engaged in a downward FAN and reversed to the 50 SMA / R1 line prior to the report, so it was sitting at a level of resistance prior to the report broke. Since it crossed the 50 close to its origin, the retracement on the 0502 candle was minimal, and it hit a 2nd peak more than double the drop of the first.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.19.12

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Jan 192012

1/19/2012 Monthly Building Permits (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 0.68M
Actual: 0.68M
Previous revision: none
INDECISIVE REACTION
Started @ 101.81
Peak@ 101.94 / Retrace to 101.72 – 0231 (1 min)

Notes: Report matched forecast and no previous revision. Indecisive reaction with 18 tick swing. Probably inevitable to avoid stop loss filling on this one.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.13.12

Trade Balance Comments Off

Jan 132012

1/13/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: -44.8B
Actual: -47.8B
Previous Revision: +0.2B to -43.3B
DULL REACTION
Started @ 99.65
1st Peak @ 99.46 – 0332 (2 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 99.37 – 0336 – 0342 (6-12 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of forecast, but previous report revised slightly upward. Reaction was negative overall, hitting support at the 200 SMA. Initial reaction was dull, not filling order until 30 sec after report release. Long order would have filled, then retraced. I would cancel out after 10 sec of order not filling.

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