Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.12.12

Retail Sales Comments Off

Jan 122012

1/12/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual:-0.2%
Previous revision:+0.1% to 0.3%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual:0.1%
Previous Revision:+0.2% to 0.4%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 102.11
1st Peak @ 101.77 – 0333 (3 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 101.52 – 0346 (16 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 102.13 – 0412 (42 min)
61 ticks

Notes: Report fell well short of forecast causing a strong downward spike and follow on reversal . Spike had to fight through the R1 line (long tail on the 0231 candle) then fell without much resistance until 0346. Reports broke at same time as the weekly unemployment claims report which was strongly negative at 399K, adding some of the momentum to the spike. I would probably trade this report as unemployment claims would be overshadowed by retail sales.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.06.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jan 062012

1/6/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 152K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:200K
Previous Revision:-20K to 100K
Rate Forecast: 8.7%
Rate Actual:8.5%
Previous Revision +0.1% to 8.7%
SPIKE / REVERSAL
Started @ 102.57
Peak @ 102.98 – 0331 (1 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 102.51 – 0332 (2 min) / 102.30 – 0342 (12 min)
47 ticks / 68 ticks

Notes: Mostly positive report exceeded the forecast with jobs and the rate, but disappointing previous revisions and the false rosy rate figures caused a relatively meager spike and follow on immediate and larger reversal. This is the second month where the Labor Dept is cooking the books, and the markets continue to see through it. Try to close out with just a handful of ticks on the 0331 candle.

CL 03 12 (2 Range) 01.06.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jan 062012

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 01.05.12

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Jan 052012

1/5/2012 Monthly ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0315 HI time / 0815 EST)
Forecast: 176K
Actual:325K
Previous Revision: -2K to 204k
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 103.46
1st Peak @ 103.71 – 0316 (1 min)
25 ticks

Retrace to 103.31 – 0318 (3 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Report greatly exceeded forecast, as previous report revised barely downward. 0316 candle crossed the PP line by 10 ticks and then held most of its gains. Still this is about as much as an ADP report will deliver…close out above the PP. Reversal erased all the gains back to the 50 SMA. This is pretty remarkable given such a positive report. Volatility continued until 0340 or so also sue to the unemployment claims released at 0330.

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 01.05.12

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jan 052012

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 01.04.12

Factory Orders Comments Off

Jan 042012

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.03.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jan 032012

1/3/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 53.3
Actual:53.9
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 102.64
1st Peak @ 102.74 – 0501 (1 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded forecast but 0501 candle was tame. This is due to the mild delta of the report and the New Years hangover with low trade volume the first trading day after the holidays. JOBB would have gotten you in long and allowed you to close out with a meager profit or flat after hovering.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.27.11

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Dec 272011

12/27/2011 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 58.5
Actual: 64.5
Previous revision: -0.8 to 55.2
SPIKE / RETRACE or PRICED IN
Started @ 100.79
1st Peak @ 100.86 – 0501 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 100.49 – 0516 (16 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded forecast but the previous revision was downward. This should have caused a healthy spike but did not for 2 reasons: 1) This is Christmas season so low volume, 2) the last 20 min saw a large rise in the market so most of the reaction was priced in, yielding a muted reaction. I would not trade based on #1, but even if I had setup a JOBB, I would close out before it filled with the dull reaction.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.23.11

Durable Goods Comments Off

Dec 232011

12/23/2011 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual:0.3%
Previous revision:0.8% to 1.5%
Regular Forecast: 2.2%
Regular Actual:3.8%
Previous Revision:+0.7% to 0.0%
SPIKE/RETRACE
Started @ 100.11
Peak @ 99.97 / retrace to 100.17 – 0331 (1 min)
6 / -14 ticks

Retrace to 100.28 – 0338 (8 min)
31 ticks

Notes: Report came in mixed overall with the core report disappointing while the regular report and previous revisions were solidly positive. Report was released on the Friday before Christmas, with extremely low volume. I would not trade this report due to the Christmas effect, and the erratic nature of the 0331 and 0335 candles illustrates this.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.20.11

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Dec 202011

12/20/2011 Monthly Building Permits (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 0.63M
Actual:0.68M
Previous revision: -0.01M to 0.64M
INDECISIVE REACTION
Started @ 95.83
Peak@ 95.90 / Retrace to 95.72 – 0231 (1 min)

Notes: Report was strong and positive, but trade volume is too low due to Christmas holiday. Cancel the trade if not filled in 8-10 sec. If you got in the trade, then go for minimal gain or loss.

Older Entries Newer Entries