Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 12.15.11

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Dec 152011

12/15/2011 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 5.1
Actual:10.3
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 95.97
1st Peak @ 96.18 – 0501 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 95.40 – 0511 (11 min)
78 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded forecast causing a meager spike and huge reversal . The 0401 candle crossed the 50 SMA about halfway up, thus still had a pull to reverse the direction. That would have been my cue to close out above the 50. The large drop after is abnormal with the positive report, but this is close enough to Christmas that trade volume is likely low created strange reactions.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.13.11

Retail Sales Comments Off

Dec 132011

12/13/2011 Monthly Retail Sales (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual:0.2%
Previous revision: none
Regular Forecast: 0.6%
Regular Actual:0.2%
Previous Revision:+0.1% to 0.6%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 98.75
1st Peak @ 98.63 – 0231 (1 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 98.57 – 0341 (11 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 98.83 – 0356 (26 min)
26 ticks (2x top)

Notes: Report fell short of forecast causing a moderate downward spike and follow on reversal . Spike hit the R1 line and bounced back up. Low trade volume due to Christmas holiday, hence reaction was tamer than expected. Overall activity restricted to between just above 200 / 100 SMAs and R1 line.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.09.11

Trade Balance Comments Off

Dec 092011

12/9/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: -43.5B
Actual: -43.5B
Previous Revision: -1.1B to -44.2B
Spike / retrace
Started @ 98.69
1st Peak @ 98.84 – 0332 (2 min)
15 ticks

Retrace to 98.57 – 0333 (3 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report matched forecast, but previous report revised mildly downward. Reaction was positive overall, hitting resistance at the 50 SMA, then reversing.

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 12.05.11

Factory Orders Comments Off

Dec 052011

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.02.11

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Dec 022011

12/2/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 126K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 120K
Previous Revision:+20K to 100K
Rate Forecast: 9.0%
Rate Actual:8.6%
SPIKE / REVERSAL
Started @ 101.46
Peak @ 101.93 – 0331 (1 min)
47 ticks

Reversal to 100.78 – 0342 (12 min)
115 ticks

Notes: Strongly positive report exceeded the forecast on the face of it, but the market called BS on the 0.4% drop in the rate and rose a meager 47 ticks before reversing for 117. This is the first of a few falsely rosy reports. The markets know this and do not buy it. Following my normal routine, I would wait until the 0332 candle to decide to get out. After seeing a 10 tick drop, I would probably close around the R1 line if it did not bounce back up.

CL 03 12 (2 Range) 12.02.11

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Dec 022011

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.01.11

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Dec 012011

12/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 51.6
Actual:52.7
Previous revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 101.16
1st Peak @ 101.27 / Retrace to 101.04 – 0501 (1 min)
11 ticks / -12 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded forecast but 0501 candle was indecisive with low after report market volume. Either the report was leaked in advance, or it was already priced in such that the reaction was bizarre. JOBB would have gotten you in long and then retraced to hit the stop loss before returning to the candle start value.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.30.11

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Nov 302011

11/30/2011 Monthly ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0315 HI time / 0815 EST)
Forecast: 131K
Actual:206K
Previous Revision:+20K to 130k
INDECISIVE
Started @ 101.94
Oscillated between 102.00 and 101.76 erratically in 0316 candle
6 ticks / -18 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded forecast, and previous report revised largely upward, but the FED unexpectedly made an announcement and policy change relaxing the liquidity of the dollar 15 min earlier. As that caused nearly a 200 tick spike in the market in 6 minutes, its reverberations were still being felt when the ADP report broke. This muted the effect of the ADP report even though it was strong. After seeing the big spike on the chart I would not trade this report.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.29.11

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Nov 292011

11/29/2011 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 43.9
Actual: 56.0
Previous revision: +1.1 to 40.9
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 99.68
1st Peak @ 100.02 – 0501 (1 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 100.13 – 0504 (4 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 99.74 – 0509 (9 min)
39 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded forecast along with the previous revision causing a healthy spike, 2nd peak, and follow on full reversal . The magnitude of the spike would have been larger, but the FAN in the previous 20 min had priced in some of the reaction. The peak is obviously at 0504 due to the candle showing the upward movement arrested. I would close out in the 100.05 area.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.23.11

Durable Goods Comments Off

Nov 232011

11/23/2011 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual:0.7%
Previous revision:-1.1% to 0.6%
Regular Forecast: -1.1%
Regular Actual:-0.7%
Previous Revision:-0.7% to -1.5%
SPIKE/RETRACE
Started @ 96.68
Peak @ 97.08 – 0336 (6 min)
40 ticks

Retrace to 96.47 – 0354 (24 min)
61 ticks

Notes: Report came in exceeding the forecast overall with moderate downward revisions to the previous reports. Report was released at the same time as weekly unemployment claims (Weds due to Thanksgiving holiday) which came in at 393K as expected. I would not trade this report as the unemployment claims caused the 0331 candle to be volatile and indecisive, but I would watch the 0332 candle and /or trade the reversal.

Older Entries Newer Entries