Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.27.11

Advance GDP Comments Off

Oct 272011

10/27/2011 Quarterly Advance GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 2.4%
Actual: 2.5%
Previous Revision: none
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 93.25
1st Peak@ 93.57 – 0231 (1 min)
32 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.05 – 0248 (18 min)
80 ticks

Final Peak @ 94.11 – 0313/0316 (43/46 min)
86 ticks (2x top)

Reversal to 92.98 – 0351 (81 min)
113 ticks

Notes: Report was slightly positive, with no previous revision. This caused an upward fan of medium amount. I would use the JOBB strategy here and stay in for about 45 min where the trend usually ends. After seeing the double top at 94.05, I would close out. The reversal took about 35 min and yielded more ticks – also good to trade.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.26.11

Durable Goods Comments Off

Oct 262011

10/26/2011 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual:1.7%
Previous revision:-0.3% to -0.4%
Regular Forecast: -0.7%
Regular Actual: -0.8%
Previous Revision: none
SPIKE/RETRACE
Started @ 93.55
Peak @ 93.86 – 0231 (1 min)
31 ticks (lost it all on retrace)

Retrace to 92.73 – 0246 (9 min)
113 ticks

Notes: Report came in exceeding the forecast overall with a small revisions to the previous report causing a small upward spike up to the 100 / 50 / 200 SMAs then retracing before the candle closed out.. This report was also encompassed inside of a downward FAN – the initial spike was part of a gap close /reversal, but being news driven, promptly fell again. Then the drop was a continuation of the FAN. The report spike was a blip in the overall chart movement, albeit a 31 tick blip.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.25.11

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Oct 252011

10/25/2011 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 46.1
Actual: 39.8
Previous revision: +1.0 to 45.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.66
1st Peak @ 93.40 – 0401 (1 min)
26 ticks

2nd Peak @ 93.13 – 0409 (9 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 93.96 – 0421 (21 min)
83 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of forecast causing a healthy spike, 2nd peak, and follow on full reversal . About 25 ticks of the 0400 candle was a drop in the last second, so you would get some of that with JOBB. Market peaked between the 50 SMA and the R1 line, then retraced to approach the 100 SMA before falling to hit the R1 line. Then it reversed to go above the 100 SMA. I would trade this with JOBB, ride the retrace and close out after it hit the R1 line at 0409 around 93.20.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 10.20.11

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Oct 202011

10/20/2011 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: -9.0
Actual:8.7
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 86.81
1st Peak @ 87.36 – 0401 (1 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 86.75 – 0408 (8 min) /
61 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded forecast causing a healthy spike, and larger reversal . The reversal below the pre-report value, and the nature of the second rise to fall short of the 0401 spike and take 15 min to happen keep this from being a SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK case, although if the spike had been greater, it could have been. When the 0401 spike crossed the 100 SMA and the 200 SMA (halfway up), it had to pull back. If the spike had been another 20 to 30 ticks higher, then the pull of the 200 to retrace would have been less, and a 2nd peak at about 0405-0408 would have likely occurred.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.19.11

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Oct 192011

10/19/2011 Monthly Building Permits (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 0.61M
Actual: 0.59M
Previous revision: +0.01M to .63M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 88.90
Peak@ 89.12 – 0231 (1 min)
22 ticks

2nd Peak@ 89.17 – 0233 (3 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report came in close enough to the forecast and previous report was revised upward but reaction was reaction was opposite of expected. The 200 and 100 SMAs drove the retracement and 2nd peak. Price moved upward after 0233 until 0250, but this is after the short term reaction of the report.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.14.11

Retail Sales Comments Off

Oct 142011

10/14/2011 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual:0.6%
Previous revision:+0.4% to 0.5%
Regular Forecast: 0.5%
Regular Actual:1.1%
Previous Revision:+0.3% to 0.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 86.52
1st Peak @ 86.89 – 0231 (1 min)
37 ticks

2nd Peak @ 87.05 – 0246 (16 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 86.65 – 0300 (30 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Strong report came in well above forecast causing a healthy spike and smaller reversal. After initial spike, market hovered in the realm of the R2 line, and eventually peaked about 10 ticks above. After seeing the apex of the 0231 candle, I would close out at the R2 line at 86.95. Notice the reversal bottomed out on the 0300 candle and the 0301 candle spiked up again at the open.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.13.11

Trade Balance Comments Off

Oct 132011

10/13/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -46.0B
Actual: -45.6B
Previous Revision: -0.8B to -45.6B
Spike / retrace
Started @ 85.03
1st Peak @ 84.64 – 0233 (3 min)
39 ticks

Retrace to 85.01 – 0239 – 0242 (9-12 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Report slightly exceeded forecast, but previous report revised mildly downward. Report broke on Thursday at the same time as weekly unemployment claims (matched forecast at 404K). I would not trade this report with 2 medium movers breaking at the same time. The long tail on the 0231 candle is typical of the unemployment report.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.07.11

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Oct 072011

10/7/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 55K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:103K
Previous Revision:+57K to 57K
Rate Forecast: 9.1%
Rate Actual: 9.1%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 82.77
1st Peak @ 84.20 – 0234 (4 min)
143 ticks

2nd Peak @ 84.57 – 0240 (10 min)
180 ticks

Reversal to 83.69 – 0301 (31 min)
88 ticks

Notes: Strongly positive report that exceeded the forecast with a upward revision to the previous report causing a healthy spike upward. I would close out at the beginning of the 0234 candle when it started to reverse, or possibly wait for the 2nd spike at 0240 (143 ticks is large, but not gigantic).

CL 03 12 (2 Range) 10.07.11

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Oct 072011

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 10.05.11

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Oct 052011

10/5/2011 Monthly ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0215 HI time / 0815 EDT)
Forecast: 76K
Actual:91K
Previous Revision: -2K to 89k
Spike with 2nd peak
Started @ 78.76
1st Peak @ 78.97 – 0216 (1 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 79.02 – 0219 (4 min)
26 ticks

Retrace to 78.66 – 0221 (6 min)
36 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded forecast, but previous report revised slightly downward. Large wick on the 0216 candle due to crossing the 100 SMA and pull from the 50 SMA. I would close out at 78.87 when it hovered a few ticks above the 100 SMA for 12 sec. It did go up higher after the hovering and had a 2nd peak, but I would play it safe since reversals often happen after hovering especially if a higher level SMA was just crossed. Notice the seesaw up and down centered on the 100 SMA for 10 min.

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