Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

NG 04-14 (1 Min) 3.6.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

3/6/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -134B
Actual: -152B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.538 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.665 – 1033 (3 min)
127 ticks

Reversal to 4.620 – 1041 (11 min)
45 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.695 – 1056 (26 min)
157 ticks

Reversal to 4.629 – 1115 (45 min)
66 ticks

Notes: Larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a large long move with the action on the :30 bar easily contained within the bracket. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs near the origin, the HOD, and the R1 Mid Pivot to peak on the :33 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 4.575 with 27 ticks of slippage on the :31 bar, then seen it continue to ratchet upward and hover around the R1 Mid Pivot at 4.641 allowing for an easy exit with 60+ ticks. With the larger offset, this is also a safer report to be patient for a higher exit. After reaching 4.665 on the :33 bar, it reversed for 45 ticks in 10 min back to the 13 SMA. After 7 min of chopping above the 13 SMA, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 30 more ticks to the R1 Pivot in the next 10 min. Then it reversed for 66 ticks in the next 20 min to the 50 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot. After that it oscillated sideways near the R1 Mid Pivot.

NG 04-14 (1 Min) 3.13.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 252014

3/13/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -199B
Actual: -195B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 4.420 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.370 – 1031 (1 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 4.416 – 1031 (1 min)
46 ticks

Extended Reversal to 4.443 – 1052 (22 min)
73 ticks

Notes: Slightly smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a moderate unsustainable short spike with the action on the :30 bar easily contained within the bracket. The spike crossed the S2 Mid Pivot, then retreated strongly after 7 sec to the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 4.392 with 18 ticks of slippage on the :31 bar, then seen it retreat to stop you out after 8 sec unless you closed out manually before that. After that it chopped around the S1 Pivot before reversing for another 27 ticks in about 20 min. Then it oscillated around the 200 SMA for the short term.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 3.5.2014

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 252014

3/5/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 53.8
Actual: 51.6
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK (Early release-no fill)
Started @ 0.009754 (0957)
1st Peak @ 0.009765 – 0958 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.009759 – 1001 (4 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009769 – 1004 (7 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.009759 – 1007 (10 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Moderately negative report fell short of the forecast by 2.2 points. The report was leaked by one news source 3 min early, as it moved on the :58 bar. This caused a tame long spike of 11 ticks on 2 bars as it started just below the 50 SMA, then climbed to cross the 200 SMA and hit the S1 Pivot. Cancel JOBB when you see the news has released early as announced on Talking Forex. After the 1st peak, it fell to test the 200 SMA for 6 ticks, then rebounded for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks above the S1 Pivot. Then it fell 10 ticks to hit the 200 SMA again. After that, it traded sideways for about 15 min before settling into another rally, unlikely due to the ISM report.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 3.6.2014

Factory Orders Comments Off

Mar 252014

3/6/2014 Monthly Factory Orders (1000 EST)
Forecast: -0.4%
Actual: -0.7%
Previous Revision: -0.5% to -2.0%
DULL REACTION (No FILL)
Started @ 0.009701
1st Bar span 0.009700 – 0.009702 – 1001 (1 min)
+/- 1 ticks

Notes: Report came in lower than the forecast with a weak reading coupled with a sizeable downward revision to the previous report. This caused a dull reaction that spanned only +/- 1 ticks from the origin. It did have a delayed reaction on the :02 – :05 bars for about 9 ticks, but be safe and cancel the order with no fill after 10 sec.

CL 04-14 (1 Min) 3.5.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 252014

3/5/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 1.33M
Actual: 1.43M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.18M
Actual: -1.60M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.22M
Actual: 1.41M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 102.75
1st Peak @ 102.55 – 1031 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 102.81 – 1032 (2 min)
26 ticks

2nd Peak @ 101.92 – 1049 (19 min)
83 ticks

Reversal to 102.31 – 1101 (31 min)
39 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching modest gain in inventories, while gasoline saw a slightly larger modest draw when a smaller modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a modest gain when a modest draw was expected. The mixed news and minimal offset on the crude and gas caused a tame short reaction of only 20 ticks on the :31 bar that was unsustained. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 102.66 with no slippage, then seen it give you a quick opportunity to capture about 5-8 ticks, before retreating beyond the origin. After the reversal, it fell again for a larger 2nd peak of 63 more ticks in the next 19 min, crossing the S2 Pivot and extending the LOD. Then it reversed for 39 ticks back to the S2 Pivot in the next 12 min. After that it traded sideways underneath the S2 Pivot.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 3.6.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 272014

3/6/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 336K
Actual: 323K
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.009721 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009694 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-27 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009714 – 0830:45 (1 min)
)))20 ticks
————
Double Bottom @ 0.009694 – 0901 (31 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.009713 – 1023 (113 min)
19 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009710 (just above the S3 Pivot) / 0.009701 (no SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009731 (just below the 20 SMA) / 0.009740 (just above the S2 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in strong with 13K less jobs than the forecast. This caused a large short unsustainable spike of 27 ticks departure from the anchor point as it crossed the S3 Pivot and hit the S4 Mid Pivot. The short move would have filled both tiers of the long entries at 0.009710 and 0.009701, then fallen an additional 7 ticks before retreating to surrender most of the drop. With an average position long position of 0.009705, look to exit en between 0.009712 and 0.009714 with about 14 – 18 total ticks when it hovered in the middle of the :31 bar. After the :31 bar, it trickled down to a double bottom after 30 min on the S4 Mid Pivot again before reversing for 19 ticks in the next 80 min, crossing the S3 Pivot.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.7.2014

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Mar 272014

3/7/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 151K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 175K
Previous Revision: +16K to 129K
Rate Forecast: 6.6%
Rate Actual: 6.7%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 132’02
1st Peak @ 130’20 – 0832 (2 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 131’00 – 0836 (6 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Impressive report showing 24K more jobs created than expected, a moderarw previous upward revision of 16K jobs, and a 0.1% increase in the unemployment U-3 rate as more people are looking for work. This caused a large decisive short move of 46 ticks on the :31 and :32 bars. It fell to cross all 3 major SMAs and the S4 Mid Pivot at the bottom of the spike while extending the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 132’18 with abnormally high 13 ticks of slippage, then seen it continue to fall to about 131’03 where it first slowed. It eventually ratcheted down to 130’20 allowing up to 30 ticks to be captured even with the high slippage. The conservative recommendation in the alert of 15 ticks would have easily filled. After the peak, it reversed for 12 ticks in the next 4 bars back to the S3 Pivot. Then it traded sideways mostly in between the S3 and S4 Mid Pivots for the next hour.

CL 04-14 (1 Min) 3.12.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 272014

3/12/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 2.15M
Actual: 6.18M
Gasoline
Forecast: -2.03M
Actual: -5.23M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.87M
Actual: -0.53M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 98.51
1st Peak @ 98.20 – 1032 (2 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 98.91 – 1044 (14 min)
71 ticks

Pullback to 98.51 – 1052 (22 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 98.97 – 1101 (31 min)
46 ticks

2nd Peak @ 98.12 – 1116 (46 min)
39 ticks

Notes: Large gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expeced, while gasoline saw a large draw when a moderate draw was expected, and distillates saw a modest draw when a slightly larger modest draw was expected. The mixed news and large draw on gas with large gains on crude indicate refinery capacity is strong. This caused a short reaction of 31 ticks that crossed the 200 SMA and S3 Mid Pivot near the origin, then failed to reach the LOD as it found support at the same level as the low on the 0927 bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 98.41 with no slippage, then seen it give you an opportunity to capture about 10 ticks when it hovered near the low. Then it reversed for 71 ticks in the next 12 min before falling to the 200 SMA 8 min later for 40 ticks. Then it reversed for 46 ticks 9 min later, before falling for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks that reached the LOD. After that it continued to step lower for the next 45 min.

ZC 03-16 (1 Min) 12.9.2015

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Dec 102015

12/9/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 377.00
1st Peak @ 373.75 – 1201:32 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 376.50 – 1206 (6 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 370.25 – 1237 (37 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 374.75 – 1417 (137 min)
18 ticks

Expected Fill: 375.75 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Exit: 374.00 – 7 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 371.50 (below the S2 Mid Pivot) – move up after small spike

Notes: Unusual reaction that was slow to break and about half the size of normal.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.13.2014

Retail Sales Comments Off

Mar 282014

3/13/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.3%
Previous revision: -0.3% to -0.3%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to -0.6%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 132’03 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 131’30 – 0830:15 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 132’01 – 0830:32 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 131’26 – 0833 (3 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 132’00 – 0849 (19 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 131’31 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 131’27 (in between the LOD and S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 132’07 (just below the HOD and R1 Mid Pivot) / 132’11 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report was double booked with unemployment claims, so we used the Trap Trade approach. Most of the news was positive with core retail sales and claims while the broader reading matched and we saw downward previous revisions. This caused a short move of 5 ticks in 15 sec that crossed all 3 major SMAs and hit the S1 Mid Pivot. This would have filled the inner long entry with 1 tick to spare, then backed off to hover between the fill point and +2 ticks. Upon noticing the lack of conflict in the news, look to exit with 1 tick of profit. After the :31 bar, it fell for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in the next 2 bars to the S1 Pivot, then achieved a reversal of 6 ticks back to the 50 SMA in the next 16 min. After that it trickled lower for a double bottom, then reversed into a long rally after the opening bell for the US session.

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