Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 3.13.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 282014

3/13/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 334K
Actual: 315K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009748 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009733 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))-15 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009742 – 0830:36 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Double Bottom @ 0.009733 – 0831:34 (2 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.009744 – 0850 (20 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009727 – 0922 (52 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009737 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.009729 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009760 (on the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009769 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in strong with 19K less jobs than the forecast coupled with a mildly bullish retail sales report. This caused a short spike of 15 ticks that crossed the 50/100 SMAs near the origin and the PP Pivot closer to the bottom. This would have filled your inner long entry with 4 ticks to spare, then backed off to hover between 0.009741 and 42 for 10 sec allowing for an exit with 4-5 ticks quickly. If you let it continue, you would have seen it fall for a double bottom twice after the fill, then reverse for 11 ticks in the next 18 min. This would have allowed for a patient 7 ticks to be captured near the 50 SMA. After that it fell for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks, crossing the OOD and S1 Mid Pivot after 30 min.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 4.11.14

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Apr 112014

4/11/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EST)
Forecast: 81.2
Actual: 82.6
TRAP TRADE (DULL – No Fill)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009853 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.009846 – 0955:12 (1 min)
-7 ticks

Reversal to 0.009853 – 0958:23 (4 min)
7 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009843 – 1002 (7 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.009860 – 1014 (19 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009845 (on the PP Pivot) / 0.009838 (no SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009861 (just above the OOD) / 0.009868 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in moderately higher than the forecast by 1.4 points causing a tame short impulse on the 6J for only 7 ticks as it encountered strong support near the PP Pivot (just like an hour earlier). That would have fallen short of the inner short order by 1 tick at 12 sec into the bar. As I suggested in the alert, if you see it within 1-2 ticks of the tier and stalling, moving the tier closer is a safe play. So moving the long order up to 0.009847 would have filled, then allowed for about 5 ticks to be captured on the :59 bar. After the reversal, it fell for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks to cross the PP Pivot, then reversed for 17 ticks, crossing all 3 major SMAs and reaching the OOD 12 min later.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 3.20.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 112014

3/20/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 327K
Actual: 320K
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 0.009772 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
0831 bar span 0.009771 – 0.009768 (1 min)
3 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009764 (just below the 100 SMA) / 0.009754 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 0.009781 (no SMA/Pivot near) / 0.009790 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in strong but close to the forecast with 7K less jobs than the forecast with no other news. This caused a dull 0831 bar of only 3 ticks movement on the OOD and 13 SMA. Cancel the order with no impulse after 20 sec. It eventually drifted a few ticks down to hit the 200 SMA, then bounced for about 10 ticks in 9 min.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 3.26.2014

Durable Goods Comments Off

Apr 122014

3/26/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual: 0.2%
Previous revision: -0.2% to 0.9%
Regular Forecast: 1.1%
Regular Actual: 2.2%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to -1.3%
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.009750 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.009750 – 0830:01 (1 min)
-20 ticks

Reversal to 0.009772 – 0831:05 (2 min)
22 ticks
————
Extended Reversal to 0.009776 – 0834 (4 min)
26 ticks

Pullback to 0.009766 – 0849 (19 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009758 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009750 (just above the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009782 (just below the OOD/HOD) / 0.009789 (No SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in mixed with the core reading nearly matching the forecast, while the regular reading exceeded the forecast by 1.1%. With the mixed news, this caused a large unsustainable short move of 20 ticks that nearly reached the S2 Pivot and returned to the origin. With the Trap Trade, you would have filled long at 0.009758, but the outer tier would have missed. Then you would have ssen it retreat quickly to give you an immediate 8 ticks of profit. If you were a little patient, you could have captured up to 14 ticks with ease just after the :31 bar expired. After it continued upward for 4 more ticks, it pulled back for 10 ticks to the S1 Pivot in about 15 min.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.20.2014

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Apr 122014

3/20/2014 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EST)
Forecast: 4.2
Actual: 9.0
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 131’30
1st Peak @ 131’24 – 1002 (2 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 132’07 – 1108 (68 min)
15 ticks

Extended Reversal to 132’10 – 1150 (110 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a delta of 4.8 pts, causing a short spike on the ZB that started on the 100 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot, then fell to cross the LOD for 6 ticks on the :01 and :02 bars. With JOBB, your order would have short at 131’26 with 2 ticks of slippage, then it would have stayed within 1 tick of your fill for over a minute. Look to exit with 1 tick on the :01 or :02 bar. After the extension of the LOD, it reversed for 15 ticks in the next 66 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot. Then after a brief pullback, it climbed another 3 ticks about 40 min later to the PP Pivot.

CL 05-14 (1 Min) 3.19.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Apr 122014

3/19/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.61M
Actual: 5.85M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.54M
Actual: -1.47M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.63M
Actual: -3.10M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 98.90
1st Peak @ 99.03 – 1031 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 98.77 – 1033 (3 min)
26 ticks

2nd Peak @ 99.18 – 1046 (16 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 98.33 – 1130 (60 min)
85 ticks

Notes: Large gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a near matching modest draw, and distillates saw a moderate draw when a negligible draw was expected. The mixed news caused a relatively dull reaction that would not have filled either side 10 sec past the release, so cancel the order. We saw a small indecisive :31 bar that would have spiked long 13 ticks then retreated late in the :31 bar. Then it reversed 26 ticks to the 200 SMA before rallying for a 2nd peak of 28 ticks in the next 13 min, nearly reaching the HOD. After that it fell for a slow developing large reversal of 85 ticks in 44 min, crossing the PP Pivot and extending the LOD.

NG 04-14 (1 Min) 3.20.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Apr 132014

3/20/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -58B
Actual: -48B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.434 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.356 – 1031 (1 min)
78 ticks

Reversal to 4.410 – 1038 (8 min)
54 ticks

Pullback to 4.371 – 1100 (30 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 4.393 – 1105 (35 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a large short spike with the action on the :30 bar easily contained within the bracket. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S2 Pivot then touched the LOD for 78 ticks on the :31 bar. It retreated late in the bar leaving 20 ticks on the tail naked. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.401 with 23 ticks of slippage on the :31 bar, then seen it continue to ratchet lower and hit the LOD after 7 sec. Look to exit at about 4.365 with about 35 ticks where it hovered for about 7 sec. After the peak, it reversed for 54 ticks in the next 7 min back to the S2 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA. Then it pulled back for 39 ticks in 22 min before a quick reversal of 22 ticks around the S2 Pivot.

ZC 12-15 (1 Min) 11.10.2015

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Dec 102015

11/10/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 364.75
1st Peak @ 358.00 – 1200:10 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 363.75 – 1202:08 (3 min)
31 ticks

Pullback to 359.50 – 1206 (6 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 364.50 – 1213 (13 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 356.50 – 1254 (54 min)
33 ticks

Expected Fill: 363.00 (short)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Exit: 358.25 – 19 tics
Recommended Profit Target placement: 358.25 (below the S3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: As this report is often prone to reverse after a few seconds, note the hovering in the first 16 sec and the inability to breakout below 358.00 and exit quickly or reverse the order.

CL 05-14 (1 Min) 3.26.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Apr 192014

3/26/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.74M
Actual: 6.62M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.21M
Actual: -5.10M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.35M
Actual: 1.56M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 100.06
1st Peak @ 99.83 – 1030:08 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 100.13 – 1030:41 (1 min)
30 ticks

2nd Peak @ 99.70 – 1035 (5 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 100.07 – 1047 (17 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Large gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a large draw when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a modest gain when a modest draw was expected. The mixed news caused a small short spike that would not have reversed on the back end of the :31 bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 99.94 with about 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it give you about 10 ticks and pullback quickly to hover about 3 ticks on either side of the fill point around the 50 SMA. Look to exit with 2-3 ticks because this means a reversal is likely coming. Sure enough, it reversed to touch the HOD 41 sec into the :31 bar. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks, reaching the R1 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA in the next 4 bars. After that it reversed for 37 back to the R1 Pivot in the next 12 min. It continued to swing between the R1 and R1 Mid Pivots, then the swings shifted lower using the trend line as resistance.

CL 05-14 (1 Min) 4.2.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Apr 192014

4/2/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.09M
Actual: -2.38M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.09M
Actual: -1.57M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.10M
Actual: 0.55M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 99.26
1st Peak @ 99.38 – 1030:00 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 98.97 – 1033 (3 min)
41 ticks

Pullback to 99.25 – 1034 (4 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 98.86 – 1038 (8 min)
39 ticks

Pullback to 99.26 – 1052 (22 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a modest gain was expected, while gasoline saw a slightly larger modest draw when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a minimal change was expected. The mixed news caused an indecisive reaction with a quick long burst of 12 ticks followed by a reversal that would have stopped you out after 5 sec. Notice on the chart the trend channel that was established before the report and how the long reaction broke out of the trend channel and quickly reversed as it also crossed the 100 SMA. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 99.36 with no slippage, then seen it back off and hit the stop with no slippage 5 sec later. If you were fast you might have been able to get out earlier with 8-10 ticks loss. The reversal continued to fall to cross the S1 Pivot and hit the bottom of the trend channel on the :33 bar. then it pulled back to the 50/200 SMAs for 28 ticks, before falling again for 39 ticks 4 min later. It was able to penetrate the lower trend line, but pulled back unable to sustain. It continued to cycle until about 1130 when a decisive long move broke out of the channel.

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