Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 06-14 (1 Min) 4.30.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 162014

4/30/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.37M
Actual: 1.70M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.60M
Actual: 1.56M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.58M
Actual: 1.94M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 99.49
1st Peak @ 99.79 – 1030:35 (1 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 99.60 – 1032 (2 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 99.90 – 1037 (7 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 99.63 – 1043 (13 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Modest draw in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a moderate gain when a negligible gain was expected. The news was conflicting with the gas inventories gaining while the crude stocks fell. Usually this indicates a surprise increase in refinery production. This resulted in a 30 tick long spike that rose to cross the 50 and 100 SMAs. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have seen a delayed reaction as the movement would have been contained within the bracket for 13 sec. The prudent course of action would be to cancel the order, but if you left it on the chart, it would have worked out in your favor for a fill long at about 99.59 with no slippage, then given you an opportunity to exit with about 10 ticks below the 100 SMA where it hovered. After a reversal of 19 ticks that retreated to the 50 SMA, it rose for a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks in the next 5 min. Then it reversed for 27 ticks in the next 6 min to the 20 SMA. After that it rose for a double top, chopped sideways, then fell back to the S3 Mid Pivot about an hour after the report.

CL 06-14 (1 Min) 5.7.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 162014

5/7/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.42M
Actual: -1.78M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.02M
Actual: 1.61M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.93M
Actual: -0.45M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 100.09
1st Peak @ 100.39 – 1030:00 (1 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 100.05 – 1030:52 (1 min)
-34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 100.99 – 1103 (33 min)
90 ticks

Reversal to 100.57 – 1126 (56 min)
42 ticks

Notes: Modest draw in inventories when a modest gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when no change was expected, and distillates saw a negligible draw when a negligible gain was expected. The news was conflicting with the gas inventories gaining while the crude stocks fell. Usually this indicates a surprise increase in refinery production. This resulted in a 30 tick long spike that rose to cross the 100 and 200 SMAs then reverse quickly back to the origin. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would filled long at 100.20 with 1 tick of slippage then seen it pop up to 100.38 and fall about 10 ticks to chop in the 100.20s immediately. A profit target of anything less than 18 would have filled, otherwise look to exit manually with a handful of ticks as a quick reversal is likely with the initial behavior. After a reversal of 34 ticks that retreated to the 50 SMA, it rose for a 2nd peak of 60 more ticks in the next 32 min, crossing the R2Pivot. Then it reversed for 42 ticks in the next 23 min as it breached the 50 SMA. After that it traded sideways.

CL 06-14 (1 Min) 5.14.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 162014

5/14/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.10M
Actual: 0.95M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.14M
Actual: -0.77M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.53M
Actual: -1.12M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 102.33
1st Peak @ 102.06 – 1031:43 (2 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 102.65 – 1049 (19 min)
59 ticks

Pullback to 102.32 – 1126 (56 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Modest gain in inventories when a negligible draw was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible draw when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a modest draw when a negligible gain was expected. The news was conflicting, but the crude figures drove the reaction. This resulted in a 27 tick short spike that fell to cross all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would filled short at 102.23 with no slippage on a relatively tame and slow move. With the 100 SMA and R2 Mid Pivot 1 tick above the fill point, it briefly struggled to fall for about 20 sec, then fell for another 18 ticks into the :32 bar as it reached the R1 Pivot. An exit at the 200 SMA at about 102.12 would have been prudent for about 10 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 59 ticks in the next 17 min as the gas results drove the action. Then it pulled back for 33 ticks in the next 37 min to the 100 SMA.

NG 05-14 (1 Min) 4.24.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

May 182014

4/24/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 40B
Actual: 49B
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.733
1st Peak @ 4.705 – 1030:00 (1 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 4.792 – 1031:04 (4 min)
87 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.682 – 1101 (31 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 4.719 – 1122 (52 min)
37 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a shortly sustained short spike. This was right at the time of contract rollover which split the volume over 2 contracts and often causes instability. There was also a 11 tick jump 5 sec early to be a trigger to cancel. The spike started above the OOD and fell to cross the S1 Mid Pivot for 28 ticks, then reversed after 3 sec. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.713 with about 10 ticks of slippage on the :31 bar, then been stopped out after 4 sec. It continued to reverse all the way up to the R2 Mid Pivot for 87 ticks on the :34 bar, then collapsed back to the origin. After chopping sideways, it fell for a 2nd peak of 23 more ticks to the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 37 ticks in the next 20 min back to the S1 Mid Pivot.

NG 06-14 (1 Min) 5.1.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

May 182014

5/1/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 75B
Actual: 82B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.778
1st Peak @ 4.718 – 1030:00 (1 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 4.761 – 1036 (6 min)
43 ticks

Pullback to 4.728 – 1044 (14 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 4.755 – 1048 (18 min)
27 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a healthy short spike. The spike started on the 200 SMA and fell to cross the S2 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD for 60 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.760 with about 8 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall and hover near the S2 Mid Pivot for about 10 sec. A profit target of anything less than 40 ticks would have filled, otherwise look to exit with about 30-35 ticks where it hovered. After the hovering, it reversed to the S2 Pivot on the back end of the :31 bar, then continued to ascend to the old LOD position in the next 5 min. Then it pulled back for 33 ticks in the next 8 min and continued to chop in the next 45 min for large swings as it trended lower.

NG 06-14 (1 Min) 5.8.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

May 182014

5/8/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 71B
Actual: 74B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.689
1st Peak @ 4.620 – 1030:00 (1 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 4.649 – 1033 (3 min)
29 ticks

Final Peak @ 4.587 – 1108 (38 min)
102 ticks

Reversal to 4.607 – 1119 (49 min)
20 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a healthy short spike. The spike started on the 50 SMA and fell to cross the S2 Pivot and extend the LOD for 69 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.667 with about 12 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall and hover near the bottom for about 10 sec. A profit target of anything less than 45 ticks would have filled, otherwise look to exit with about 40 ticks where it hovered. After the hovering, it reversed to the S2 Pivot on the back end of the :31 bar and the next 2 bars, before stepping lower to a final peak of 33 more ticks in the next 35 min. Then it reversed for 20 ticks in the next 11 min and continued to trade sideways.

NG 06-14 (1 Min) 5.15.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

May 182014

5/15/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 99B
Actual: 105B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 4.362
1st Peak @ 4.289 – 1030:00 (1 min)
-73 ticks

Reversal to 4.386 – 1030:05 (1 min)
97 ticks

Continued Reversal to 4.459 – 1032 (2 min)
170 ticks

Extended Reversal to 4.509 – 1101 (31 min)
220 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused an indecisive reaction with a healthy short move followed by a large long reversal that was sustained. The spike started just above the S1 Mid Pivot and fell to cross all 3 major SMAs and the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed nearly 100 ticks in the next 5 sec to the OOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.322 with about 30 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall and reverse to stop you out at about 4.347 with 5 ticks of slippage in the violent swings in the first second. After it settled down, it rose to cross the R2 Pivot on the :32 bar. Then it chopped sideways and continued to climb for another 50 ticks in the next 29 min to reach the R3 Pivot. Then it backed off and traded sideways.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 4.29.2014

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

May 182014

4/29/2014 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 82.9
Actual: 82.3
Previous revision: +1.6 to 83.9
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 0.009744
1st Peak @ 0.009747 – 1000:16 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 0.009740 – 1003 (3 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a small margin of 0.6 points. This caused a 3 tick long bump on the :01 bar after 16 sec that was tame, but shortly sustained as it reached the S1 Pivot. With JOBB you should have cancelled the order after 10 sec, or after the move was too small to reach the bracket. It reversed for 7 ticks to be 4 ticks short of the initial position as it crossed the 100 SMA and nearly reached the 200 SMA. Then it rallied for 18 ticks in the next 25 min most likely due to other market dynamics.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 4.30.2014

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

May 182014

4/30/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 203K
Actual: 220K
Previous revision: +18K to 209K
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.0009753 (shifted lower due to late bar movement)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009743 – 0815:01 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009752 – 0815:26 (1 min)
)))9 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.009756 – 0826 (11 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009744 (on the LOD / S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009733 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009763 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.009772 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in modestly better than the forecast by 17k jobs causing a quick short spike of 10 ticks that crossed the OOD, LOD, and S1 Mid Pivot. That would have reached the inner long order with 1 tick to spare. As it reversed for 9 ticks in the next 25 sec and was flirting with the PP Pivot, look to exit with about 7 ticks. After that it continued to trend upward for a few more ticks as it used the PP Pivot for support. Ensure you are out of the trade before 0829 when the Advance GDP report is about to break.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 4.30.2014

Advance GDP Comments Off

May 182014

4/30/2014 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.2%
Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: -0.6% to 2.6%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 134’01 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 134’14 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Reversal to 134’08 – 0830:47 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 134’20 – 0835 (5 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 134’08 – 0848 (18 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 133’23 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 133’16 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 134’10 (in between the PP and R1 Mid Pivots) / 134’18 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in strongly disappointing as it fell short by 1.1% of an already anemic forecast. This caused a large long spike of 13 ticks that crossed all 3 Major SMAs, the R1 Mid Pivot and the OOD. This would have filled the inner short tier at 134’10, then allowed an exit near breakeven as it hovered later in the bar between 1 tick of heat and 1 tick of profit. Due to the strong results it would be wise to exit quickly when it fell back to the fill point. After the reversal, it climbed for another 6 ticks for a 2nd peak that reached the R1 Pivot. If you were still open in the trade or left the outer tier pending, it would have filled on the 2nd peak and then allowed for a nice profit on the ensuing reversal of 12 ticks in the next 13 min.

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