Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.1.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 202014

5/1/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 317K
Actual: 344K
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.009775 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009787 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009778 – 0830:23 (1 min)
)))9 ticks
————
Extended Reversal to 0.009774 – 0858 (28 Min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009766 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009756 (no SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009785 (just above the PP Pivot/200 SMA) / 0.009795 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in weak with 27K more jobs lost than the forecast with no other significant news. This caused a 12 tick long spike in 1 sec that rose to cross the PP Pivot, 200 SMA, and OOD then quickly backed off for 9 ticks in 21 sec. This would have filled your inner short entry tier, then allowed an exit with about 5-6 ticks quickly on the 100 SMA, or about 8 ticks later. Perfect setup for this trade and easy exit. After the reversal, it traded sideways between the LOD and 100 SMA.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.1.2014

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 222014

5/1/2014 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 54.3
Actual: 54.9
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION (Fill)
Started @ 0.009777
1st Peak @ 0.009768 – 1000:00 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009785 – 1004 (4 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report came in modestly better than the forecast, with a reading 0.6 points above the forecast causing a small and shortly sustained bearish reaction followed by a quick reversal. We saw a short spike of 9 ticks on the :01 bar that started just above the 100/50 SMAs then fell to cross the S1 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD, before reversing. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 009772 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it snap back to hover between 2 and 5 ticks in the red. Look to exit with a 3 tick loss on the dull reaction after recognizing the near matching results and the rebound from hitting the LOD and S1 Mid Pivot. Do not stay in and slowly watch it march to the stop loss and lose an additional 5 ticks for no reason. After the :01 bar, it continued to reverse up to the OOD as it crossed the PP Pivot 3 min later. Then it backed off and achieved an extended reversal of 4 more ticks 15 min later.

ES 06-14 (1 Min) 5.2.2014

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

May 242014

5/2/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 216K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 288K
Previous Revision: +11K to 203K
Rate Forecast: 6.6%
Rate Actual: 6.3%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE / REVERSE)
Anchor Point @ 1878.25 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1886.00 – 0830:08 (1 min)
)))31 ticks

)))Reversal to 1880.25 – 0830:32 (1 min)
)))-23 ticks

)))Pullback to 1884.50 – 0830:56 (1 min)
)))17 ticks
————
Reversal to 1880.25 – 0832:46 (3 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 1883.25 – 0833:29 (4 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1878.00 – 0836 (6 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1884.50 (in between the R1 and R2 Mid Pivots) / 1888.75 (just above the R2 Pivot)
Short entries – 1871.50 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 1868.25 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Strong report with about 70K more jobs added than the forecast, a mild upward revision to the previous report and a strong (but suspicious) drop of 0.3% in the U-3 rate. We shifted to the ES with a Trap Trade approach for this report. This caused an initial spike of 31 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs, the R2 Mid Pivot and extended the HOD. This would have filled the inner tier short entry with about 5-6 ticks to spare. It would have chopped around the fill point for about 20 sec, then it fell quickly and rebounded allowing an exit for about 16 ticks. If you were not able to capture that, be patient, and wait for it to reverse later in the next 5 min. Sure enough it fell again to the area of the HOD before the report and hovered for about 20 sec at the end of the :33 bar. Then it pulled back for 12 ticks in the next 30 sec before falling to the OOD on the :35 and :36 bars allowing up to 20-25 ticks below the 100 SMA. After that, it continued to swing up and down using the SMAs as the center of gravity.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.5.2014

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 242014

5/5/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 54.3
Actual: 55.2
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 0.009797
1st Peak @ 0.009793 – 1008:00 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 0.009802 – 10007 (7 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Modestly positive report exceeded the forecast by 0.9 points to be nearly matching. This caused a dull short reaction of only 4 ticks at the tail end of a larger short trend in the last 30 min that retreated after only 15 sec. With JOBB, you would have either cancelled with minimal movement at about 10 sec or filled short at about 0.009794 with no slippage. If you were filled, recognize the situation and look to exit no worse than -1 tick. After the 1st bar, it continued to reverse for another 5 ticks in the next 6 min to the 20 SMA.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.6.2014

Trade Balance Comments Off

May 242014

5/6/2014 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: -40.1B
Actual: -40.4B
Previous Revision: +0.4B to -41.9B
DULL REACTION
Started @ 0.009842
1st Peak @ 0.009845 – 0831 (1 min)
3 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009851 – 0842 (12 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009841 – 0851 (21 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast to cause a dull long reaction that only achieved 3 ticks on the :31 bar to reach the HOD then backed off. With JOBB you would have either cancelled after 10 sec with no fill or been filled at 0.009845 with no slippage, then seen it back off and hover at -1 tick for about 30 sec. Look to exit there with the matching results. After the :31 bar, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in 11 min. Then it fell 10 ticks in the next 9 min back to the R3 Mid Pivot. After that it traded sideways.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.8.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 252014

5/8/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 328K
Actual: 319K
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.009831 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009838 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009825 – 0830:03 (1 min)
)))-13 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009822 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009811 (just above the LOD)
Short entries – 0.009839 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot/HOD) / 0.009849 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in moderately strong with 9K less jobs lost than the forecast with no other significant statistical news. This caused a 7 tick long unsustainable spike in 1 sec that rose to cross the R1 Mid Pivot and OOD, then immediately fell back to the origin. This would have just missed your inner short entry tier, but the setup was perfect as it quickly retreated. It continued to chop up and down as the ECB Press conference progressed and impacted after about 2 min.

ZC 12-15 (1 Min) 9.11.2015

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Dec 102015

9/11/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 370.50
1st Peak @ 377.00 – 1200:04 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 364.50 – 1200:13 (1 min)
-50 ticks

Pullback to 377.00 – 1200:47 (1 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 369.00 – 1203 (3 min)
32 ticks

2nd Peak @ 383.75 – 1207 ( 7min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 375.75 – 1208 (8 min)
28 ticks

Pullback to 383.50 – 1222 (22 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 377.25 – 1234 (34 min)
25 ticks

Expected Fill: 372.25 (Long)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Exit: 376.50 – 17 tics
Recommended Profit Target placement: 375.00 (above the R1 Mid Pivot / HOD)

Notes: As this report is often prone to reverse after a few seconds, note the hovering in the first 9 sec and the inability to breakout above 377.00 and exit quickly or reverse the order.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 5.13.2014

Retail Sales Comments Off

May 262014

5/13/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: 0.0%
Previous revision: +0.3% to 1.0%
Regular Forecast: 0.5%
Regular Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: +0.4% to 1.5%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 135’12
1st Peak @ 135’24 – 0830:06 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 135’18 – 0834 (4 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 135’27 – 0839 (9 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 135’21 – 0847 (17 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report was very weak with 0.6% and 0.4 % margins, but was offset by strong previous revisions. This caused a stable long reaction of 12 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs, the R1 Pivot, and extended the HOD. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 135’21 with 6 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture 1-2 ticks as it hovered near the top on 2 occasions. After a 6 tick reversal in 3 min, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks after 5 min to remain above the R2 Mid Pivot for about 5 min. With the large deviation on the report, waiting for a 2nd peak would be prudent to capture about 5 total ticks. After that it fell 6 ticks to the 20 SMA 8 min later.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.15.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 272014

5/15/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 321K
Actual: 297K
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.009817 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009802 – 0830:10 (1 min)
)))-15 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009808 – 0830:57 (1 min)
)))6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009797 – 0837 (7 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.009824 – 0847 (17 min)
27 ticks

Pullback to 0.009810 – 0856 (26 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009808 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009799 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009825 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.009836 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in strong with 24K less jobs lost than the forecast with a moderately strong core CPI reading. This caused a 15 tick short spike in 10 sec that fell to cross the S2 Pivot. This would have filled your inner long entry tier with about 6 ticks to spare, then retreated to your fill point and stalled at the S2 Mid Pivot. With the strongly biased news, look to exit at about breakeven where it hovered. After that it fell for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks in the ext 6 min, then it reversed strongly for 27 ticks in 10 min. If you had left the trade open, the outer long entry would have filled with ideal position, then allowed a profitable exit with over 30 total ticks, but this would not have been advisable given the situation.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.15.2014

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

May 272014

5/15/2014 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 13.9
Actual: 15.4
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 0.009837
1st Bar span: 0.009835 – 0.009840 – 1001 (1 min)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a delta of only 1.5 pts, causing a dull reaction that strayed only 2 ticks from the origin for the first 45 sec of the :01 bar. Cancel the order with no fill after 10 sec. The upward trend that was in place prior to the news basically continued after the brief hiccup and would not have appeared disrupted to the casual observer.

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