Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZC 12-15 (1 Min) 9.30.2015

Grain Stocks Comments Off

Jan 112016

ZC 12-15 (1 Min) 9_30_2015

9/30/2015 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 392.75
Head Fake to 394.25 – 1200:08 (1 min)
6 ticks

1st Peak @ 385.50 – 1200:22 (1 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 389.75 – 1200:36 (1 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 383.50 – 1202:23 (3 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 390.75 – 1211 (11 min)
29 ticks

Pullback to 385.25 – 1229 (29 min)
22 ticks

Expected Fill: 294.25 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 392.00 – 9 tick loss (worst case 15 tick stopped)
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: The first 8 sec spoiled an otherwise great 2nd peak trade.

ZC 12-15 (1 Min) 8.12.2015

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Aug 252015

8/12/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 392.75
1st Peak @ 366.75 – 1201:22 (1 min)
104 ticks

Reversal to 373.00 – 1202:18 (3 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 357.50 – 1209 (9 min)
141 ticks

Reversal to 370.75 – 1238 (38 min)
53 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a huge short spike of 104 ticks in 82 sec that crossed every support barrier until peaking on the S4 Pivot. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 390.00 with 6 ticks of slippage, then look to exit at the S4 Mid Pivot with at least 70 ticks. It reversed 25 ticks in 1 min before falling for a 2nd peak of 37 more ticks in 6 min. Then it reversed 53 ticks in 29 min to the S4 Mid Pivot.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 6.12.2014

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 042014

6/12/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: +0.4% to 0.4%
Regular Forecast: 0.5%
Regular Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: +0.4% to 0.5%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 134’26 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 135’00 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 134’30 – 0830:12 (1 min)
)))-2 ticks

)))Pullback to 135’03 – 0830:39 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Reversal to 135’00 – 0832 (2 min)
3 ticks

2nd Peak @ 135’06 – 0835 (5 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 134’31 – 0839 (9 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 135’08 – 0900 (30 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 135’01 – 0914 (44 min)
7 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 134’22 (on the S1 Pivot / LOD) / 134’18 (on the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 134’30 (just below the OOD and R1 Mid Pivot) / 135’02 (on the HOD)

Notes: Report was double booked with unemployment claims, so we used the Trap Trade approach. All of the news was negative with core and regular retail sales falling 0.3% short of the forecast and claims exceeding the forecast while the previous revisions were large and bullish. This caused a long move of 6 ticks initially that crossed the OOD. This would have filled the inner short entry with 2 tick to spare, then backed off to hover near the fill point. Upon noticing the strong bias and lack of conflict in the news, look to exit near breakeven early in the :01 bar. After the initial seconds it continued to step higher in the next 30 min as it established a new high the then reversed for 7 ticks afterward.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 6.12.2014

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 042014

6/12/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 306K
Actual: 317K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009791 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009802 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009796 – 0830:11 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.009802 – 0830:34 (1 min)
)))6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009805 – 0834 (4 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.009799 – 0848 (18 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009779 (on the S3 Mid Pivot) / 0.009771 (just above the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009801(just above the 200 SMA /S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009809 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in disappointing with 11K more jobs lost than the forecast coupled with a very disappointing Retail Sales report. This caused a relatively small 11 tick long spike that started on the S2 Mid Pivot, then rose to cross the 200 SMA / S1 Mid Pivot then backed off 6 ticks in 11 sec. Depending on the placement of the tiers, this may have filled your inner tier. 10-12 ticks would have been a range of 0.009801 to 0.009803. I chose 0.009801 due to the 200 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot being strong resistance. Look to exit with about 3-4 ticks when it hovered with the news being consistent and strongly biased. It climbed for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks after 3 min, then fell 6 ticks in the next 14 min.

CL 07-14 (1 Min) 6.11.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 042014

6/11/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.87M
Actual: -2.60M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.84M
Actual: 1.70MM
Distillates
Forecast: 1.16M
Actual: 0.86MM
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 104.42
1st Peak @ 104.61 – 1030:26 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 104.27 – 1035 (5 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 104.69 – 1039 (9 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 104.43 – 1055 (25 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Modest draw in inventories when a lesser draw was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a modest gain was expected. Overall, the results did not differ much from the forecasts and there was little surprise, so we saw a small reaction. This resulted in a 19 tick long spike that rose to cross the 200 SMA and PP Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you may have cancelled the order with no fill after 20 sec. If you did not cancel, you would have filled long at about 104.52 with no slippage then seen it hover around 6-9 ticks of profit for 8 sec. Look to exit there with about 7 ticks. After that it reversed for 34 ticks in 4 min as it crossed the OOD. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in the next 4 min, falling just short of the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it fell 26 ticks to reach the PP Pivot and 100/200 SMAs in 16 min. After that it continued to climb higher as the news report influence faded.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 6.13.2014

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Jul 042014

6/13/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EDT)
Forecast: 83.2
Actual: 81.2
TRAP TRADE (DULL – No Fill)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009804 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009810 – 0956:50 (2 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009804 – 1001 (6 min)
)))-6 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009795 (in between the LOD / S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009789 (no SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009811 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 0.009819 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in lower than the forecast by 2.0 points causing a tame long impulse on the 6J for only 6 ticks over 2 min as it was trapped inside the SMAs. That would have fallen well short of the inner short order after the initial burst. It did not leave an opportunity to move the order closer either, so cancel the order. After the spike, the reversal fell 6 ticks back to the 100 SMA after 4 min.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 6.19.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 052014

6/19/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 316K
Actual: 312K
TRAP TRADE (DULL -NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009821 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar span 0.009821 – 0.009822
)))1 tick
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009812 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009802 (no SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009830 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009840 (no SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with 4K more jobs lost than the forecast. This caused no reaction as the :31 bar seemed unfazed and moved only 1 tick. The movement would have been well inside of the inner tiers, so cancel the order. No significant movement in the next several min either.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 6.19.2014

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Jul 052014

6/19/2014 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 14.3
Actual: 17.8
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 0.009826
1st Bar span: 0.009824 – 0.009827 – 1001 (1 min)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a delta of only 3.5 pts, causing a dull reaction that strayed only 2 ticks from the origin for the first 45 sec of the :01 bar. Cancel the order with no fill after 10 sec. We did see a delayed long move of 6 ticks, but the news should have caused a short move, so this was a reaction to the dip just before the report.

CL 08-14 (1 Min) 6.18.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 052014

6/18/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.65M
Actual: -0.58M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.11M
Actual: 0.79M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.25M
Actual: 0.44M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 106.17
1st Peak @ 105.81 – 1031:39 (2 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 105.98 – 1033 (3 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 105.60 – 1037 (7 min)
57 ticks

Reversal to 106.06 – 1049 (19 min)
46 ticks

Final Peak @ 105.36 – 1122 (52 min)
81 ticks

Reversal to 105.93 – 1212 (102 min)
57 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching negligible draw in inventories, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a near matching negligible gain. Overall, the results did not differ much from the forecasts, but they were in line to cause a slow developing short reaction. This resulted in a 36 tick short spike that fell to cross the HOD over 2 bars. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, your short order would have filled at 106.07 with no slippage then seen it chop around your fill point and the PP Pivot for about 30 sec before it fell to eclipse the LOD. You could be conservative and look to exit near breakeven or with a small profit, but with consistent results to cause a bearish reaction, it would be prudent to wait for the subsequent drop and target the LOD for about 20 ticks. After that it reversed for 17 ticks on the :33 bar, then fell for a 2nd peak of 21 more ticks as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 46 ticks to the 50 SMA and OOD in the next 12 min. After that it fell for a final peak of 24 more ticks to reach the S1 Pivot. Then the bulls took over on the reversal of 57 ticks in the next hour that reached the 200 SMA.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 6.25.2014

Durable Goods Comments Off

Jul 082014

6/25/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual: -0.1%
Previous revision: +0.2% to 0.3%
Regular Forecast: -0.1%
Regular Actual: -1.0%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to 0.6%
TRAP TRADE (STOPPED OUT)
Anchor Point @ 0.009817 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009956 – 0830:08 (1 min)
)))139 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009832 – 0830:28 (1 min)
)))-124 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.009844 – 0836 (6 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.009833 – 0842 (12 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009807 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.009797 (just above the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009825 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.009837 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in mostly negative with the core reading falling short of the forecast by 0.4%, and the regular reading falling short of the forecast by 0.9% with mixed revisions. However all of this was overshadowed by the final GDP reading that shocked the markets with a 1.1% miss on a disappointing forecast. Since the Final GDP is the second revision, it usually matches the forecast or deviates by 0.2% at most, so this was an earthquake. With the Trap Trade, you would have seen the long spike fill both your inner and outer long entries, but the stop would have possibly been rejected as it was shifting after the 2nd tier fill. This is a case if left naked in a trade and upside down about 100 ticks, the best play is to wait for it to come back. Since it is a panic induced reaction, it is not sustainable and plenty of traders will look to take advantage of the correction. So it crashed back all but 15 ticks a mere 20 sec later, which would have actually allowed a breakeven exit. After that it calmed down and pulled back for 12 ticks in the next 5 min, then reversed for 11 ticks after 6 min.

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