Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

NG 09-14 (1 Min) 8.14.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Sep 012014

8/14/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 81B
Actual: 78B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 3.876
1st Peak @ 3.947 – 1030:00 (1 min)
71 ticks

Reversal to 3.895 – 1034 (4 min)
52 ticks

Pullback to 3.939 – 1116 (46 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 3.907 – 1146 (76 min)
32 ticks

Notes: We saw a smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast by 3BCF which caused a long spike that started just above the PP Pivot and rose to cross the R1 Pivot and extend the HOD for 71 ticks in the first second. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 3.919 with about 33 ticks of slippage, then seen it oscillate around the R1 Pivot for the first 30 sec of the :31 bar. A profit target of 25 ticks or less would have easily filled. Otherwise, look to exit around 3.940 with about 20 ticks. It reversed for a total of 52 ticks in the next 3 bars as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and nearly reached the 13 SMA. Then it slowly pulled back for 44 ticks in the next 42 min, using the 13/20 SMAs for support until it crossed the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed 32 ticks in the next 30 min to the 100 SMA.

NG 09-14 (1 Min) 8.21.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Sep 012014

8/21/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 83B
Actual: 88B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.906
1st Peak @ 3.795 – 1030:07 (1 min)
111 ticks

Reversal to 3.826 – 1031:07 (2 min)
45 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.786 – 1034 (4 min)
120 ticks

Reversal to 3.814 – 1039 (9 min)
28 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast by 5BCF which caused a late breaking short spike that fell 39 ticks in the first second then retreated quickly for 26 ticks before falling to match the low. There was a premature long spike of 32 ticks 3 sec before the report and 2 sec before the bracket setup. The true spike started at the top of the premature move and fell to cross all 3 Major SMAs, the S1 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD in 7 sec. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 3.855 with about 41 ticks of slippage, then seen it continue to fall and stall around 3.800. A profit target of anything less than 60 ticks would have easily filled, otherwise look to exit around 3.800 with 50+ ticks. It reversed for 45 ticks after 1 min, then fell for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks on the :34 bar. A manual buy order setup around the S1 Pivot for the 3 min reversal would have been perfect here for about 20 ticks on a quick exit. The reversal only achieved 28 ticks in 5 min as it reached the S1 Mid Pivot. After that it traded sideways below the S1 Mid Pivot.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 8.21.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Sep 032014

8/21/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 302K
Actual: 298K
TRAP TRADE (DULL -NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009634 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009629 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009637 – 0832:33 (3 min)
)))8 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.009642 – 0848 (18 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009624 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.009614 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009643 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009653 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in narrowly impressive with a 4k offset to cause a short reaction of only 5 ticks. The move was well short of the inner tier short entry as of 20 sec into the bar, so cancel the order or manually move the buy order up to 0.009630 when it stalled and hovered there for over 30 sec and look for about 8-10 ticks until it tries to cross the 13 SMA or hits the S1 Mid Pivot. It reversed for 8 ticks in 2 min, stalled, then reversed for another 5 ticks to reach the S1 Mid Pivot after 18 min.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 8.26.2014

Durable Goods Comments Off

Sep 042014

8/26/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: -0.8%
Previous revision: +1.1% to 1.9%
Regular Forecast: 7.8%
Regular Actual: 22.6%
Previous Revision: +1.0% to 1.7%
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009620 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009612 – 0830:03 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009628 – 0832:09 (3 min)
)))16 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.009622 – 0841 (11 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.009630 – 0849 (19 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009610 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.009602 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009630 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009640 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Very strange report came in widely bipolar as the Core reading fell short of the forecast by 1.3% while the broader reading exceeded the forecast by nearly 15% on a surge of plane orders. Both readings also saw healthy previous revisions upward of about 1.0%. This caused a relatively tame short move of only 8 ticks that crossed the OOD and reversed. This would have been 2 ticks short of the inner long entry and did not come near it again, so cancel the order. It reversed for 16 ticks in the next 2min as it crossed all 3 major SMAs and nearly reached the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back for 6 ticks in the next 8 min to the 100 SMA before reversing to the R2 Mid Pivot 8 min later.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 8.26.2014

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Sep 042014

8/26/2014 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 89.1
Actual: 92.4
Previous revision: -0.6 to 90.3
DULL REACTION…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009627
1st Peak @ 0.009622 – 1000:00 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.009627 – 1003 (3 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009616 – 1011 (11 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.009622 – 1029 (29 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a moderate downward revision to the previous reading. This caused a short reaction of only 5 ticks that started on the 50 SMA and fell to cross the 100 and 200 SMAs and R1 Pivot. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 0.009623 with no slippage then allowed an exit at Breakeven as it hovered for almost the entire :01 bar. After a reversal to the origin 2 min later, it fell for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks to cross the PP Pivot in 8 min. Then it reversed for 6 ticks to the R1 Mid Pivot 18 min later.

CL 10-14 (1 Min) 8.20.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Sep 082014

8/20/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.16M
Actual: -4.47M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.59M
Actual: 0.59M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.55M
Actual: -0.96M
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.45
1st Peak @ 93.30 – 1030:14 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 93.41 – 1030:32 (1 min)
11 ticks

Pullback to 93.23 – 1031:08 (2 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 93.58 – 1034 (4 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 93.14 – 1044 (14 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 93.47 – 1052 (22 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Healthy draw in inventories when a modest draw was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a slightly larger negligible draw when a negligible draw was expected. This caused a conflicted dull reaction initially that failed to launch more than 10 ticks away from the origin until 14 sec into the bar. After attempting to go long in a muted move, it eventually fell and crossed the 50/100 SMAs, then retreated, before falling to reach the 200 SMA early in the :32 bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have seen all movement contained inside of the bracket in the first 10 sec, so cancel the order on the lack of conviction. We see a fill would have happened short at about 93.34 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen some heat and chopped around the fill point before continuing to fall late in the :31 bar and into the :32 bar to allow about 8-10 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed 25 ticks in the next 2 minutes to extend the LOD on the influence of the crude. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 9 more tick to reach the PP Pivot, before reversing to the S1 Mid Pivot 8 min later. After that it sold off for the next 80 min.

CL 10-14 (1 Min) 8.27.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Sep 092014

8/27/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.29M
Actual: -2.07M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.08M
Actual: -0.96M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.44M
Actual: 1.25M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 94.16
1st Peak @ 93.98 – 1030:00 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 94.21 – 1030:47 (1 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 93.76 – 1034 (4 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 94.19 – 1047 (17 min)
43 ticks

Notes: Modest draw in inventories when a lesser draw was expected, while gasoline saw a near matching modest draw, and distillates saw a modest gain when a negligible draw was expected. This caused a conflicted reaction initially that fell 18 ticks in the first sec to cross the 100 SMA then chopped around the fill point before reversing above the origin late in the bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have been filled short at about 94.14 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it retreat to 9 ticks of heat and fall back to hover between 2-4 ticks of profit for about 5 sec. Look to exit there as the reaction has several barriers to contend with, it failed to sustain the drop, and none of the product results has significant deviation from the forecast. The initial reaction does present other opportunities. Look to buy the dips and sell the peaks. The 2nd Peak to 93.76 was a great long entry as it fell 30 ticks in about 30 sec, crossed the PP Pivot, and pulled up before hitting the LOD. Look to exit when it comes back to the SMAs. On the other hand, notice the 4 attempts in the past hour to climb above the 94.15 area failed, so shorting the 47 bar would be wise. Look to exit around 94.00 or be patient and ride out the longer term short move that took over.

CL 10-14 (1 Min) 9.4.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Sep 092014

9/4/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EDT)
Forecast: -1.11M
Actual: -0.91M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.33M
Actual: -2.32M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.50M
Actual: 0.61M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 94.97
1st Peak @ 95.28 – 1100:00 (1 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 94.62 – 1108 (8 min)
56 ticks

Pullback to 94.99 – 1124 (24 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 94.33 – 1137 (37 min)
66 ticks

Notes: Negligible draw in inventories when a slightly greater draw was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a negligible draw was expected. This caused a shortly sustained long spike of 31 ticks that started above the 100 SMA and rose to cross the PP Pivot and OOD in the first sec. It quickly backed off and hovered about halfway up the spike. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have been filled long at about 95.12 with 5 ticks of slippage, then seen it briefly show 16 ticks of profit before retreating to chop around the fill point for 40 sec. It spent most of the time in the green, so look to exit with 2-5 ticks. The reversal took over and fell 56 ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot in 7 min. Then it pulled back 37 ticks in the next 16 min to the 100 SMA. After that it reversed for 66 ticks in 13 min, but could not reach the S1 Pivot.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 8.28.2014

Prelim GDP, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Sep 092014

8/28/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 299K
Actual: 298K
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.009640 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009621 – 0830:04 (1 min)
)))-19 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009635 – 0830:13 (1 min)
)))14 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.009641 – 0838 (8 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009630 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009622 (just above the LOD / on S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009651 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009658 (just above the HOD / R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in matching with only 1k offset while the concurrently released Prelim GDP came in 0.3% better than the forecast to cause a short reaction of 19 ticks. This would have taken 4 sec to breach the inner and outer long entry tiers to give you an average entry of 0.009626. Since it crossed the PP Pivot and hit the LOD, it retreated quickly to hover around the 0.009632 area to allow an easy fast exit with about 10-14 total ticks. If you were patient, you could have secured up to 16 more ticks as it rose in the next 7 min to the 20 SMA and R1 Pivot. After the reversal, it traded sideways.

NG 10-14 (1 Min) 8.28.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Sep 092014

8/28/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 79B
Actual: 75B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.028
1st Peak @ 4.101 – 1030:00 (1 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 4.049 – 1030:23 (1 min)
52 ticks

Continued Reversal to 4.038 – 1035 (5 min)
62 ticks

Pullback to 4.066 – 1054 (24 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 4.002 – 1127 (57 min)
64 ticks
Extended Reversal to 3.973 – 1241 (131 min)
93 ticks

Notes: We saw a smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast by 4BCF which caused a quick long spike of 73 ticks after a premature short move of 12 ticks 1 sec before the report. The spike rose to cross the R2 Pivot, then collapsed back to the area of the R1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 4.072 with about 34 ticks of slippage, then seen it pop up another 30 ticks and crash. It hovered around 4.076 for about 8 sec allowing an exit with a handful of ticks. Then it reversed for a total of 52 ticks from the top of the peak a few sec later. If you had not exited before that, you would have been stopped out here. It chopped for the next 5 min between the R1 Pivot and 100 SMA before pulling back to cross the R1 Pivot 19 min later. Then it reversed for a total of 93 ticks in the next 2 hrs to the S1 Mid Pivot.

Older Entries Newer Entries