Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 9.2.2014

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Sep 192014

9/2/2014 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 57.0
Actual: 59.0
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009527
1st Peak @ 0.009516 – 1000:00 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.009527 – 1005 (5 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009505 – 1026 (26 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.009519 – 1056 (56 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 0.009510 – 1054 (54 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report came in strongly above the forecast with a deviation of 2.0 pts and came the closest to the psychological level of 60 in years. This caused a quick short spike of 11 ticks that started on the 20 SMA and fell to extend the LOD. It retraced for several ticks in the early part of the bar, then fell to settle around 0.009519. Since this was the day after a US holiday, the Pivots were distorted and out of the picture. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 009521 with 2 ticks of slippage, then look to exit where it hovered late in the :01 bar for about 2 ticks. After the peak, it reversed back to the origin in 4 min producing a perfect opportunity for a short entry for a 2nd peak trade. A short entry at 0.009526 on the 20 SMA would have been ideal for 15+ ticks. It fell for 22 ticks in 21 min, extending the LOD and using the 13 SMA as resistance. An exit around 0.009512 would have been safe after several minutes of trading sideways. Then it reversed 14 ticks in the next 30 min, crossing the 50 SMA. After that it pulled back 9 ticks and traded sideways on the 50 SMA.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 9.12.2014

Retail Sales Comments Off

Sep 202014

9/12/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.3%
Previous revision: +0.2% to 0.3%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 0.3%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 136’17
1st Peak @ 136’21 – 0830:04 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 136’11 – 0832 (2 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 136’16 – 0833 (3 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 136’07 – 0838 (8 min)
9 ticks

Pullback to 136’16 – 0848 (18 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 136’02 – 0912 (42 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report was strong exceeding the forecasts by 0.1% and 0.3% margins with healthy upward previous revisions. Import Prices also released at the same time, falling slightly short of the forecast. This caused a brief long spike for 5 ticks that reversed quickly then continued an overall downtrend over the next hour. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 136’20 with no slippage, then seen it fall and stop you out with -4 ticks immediately. The tight stop still makes this report safer when it is unstable. After the reversal fell 10 ticks in the early part of the :32 bar, it established a pattern of pullback followed by reversal, carving out new lows, using the 50 SMA as resistance, while crossing the S4 Mid Pivot 42 min after the report.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 9.4.2014

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Sep 212014

9/4/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 218K
Actual: 204K
Previous revision: -6K to 212K
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009510 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009516 – 0815:21 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Hovered near 0.009516 for 1 min
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009529 – 0820 (5 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.009524 – 0821 (6 min)
5 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009502 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot) / 0.009492 (just below the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009520 (on the 50 SMA / S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009530 (on the 200 SMA/ S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in mildly worse than the forecast by 14k jobs causing a tame slow reaction overall that yielded 6 ticks long in 21 sec, then hovered around the 20 SMA for about 1 min without reversing. That would have missed the inner short entry by 4 ticks, making it an easy decision to cancel the order. We see the guidelines would have avoided a losing setup for the trap trade as a gradual rise is not going to work out. It continued to climb for another 13 ticks in the next 4 min to the 200 SMA / S1 Mid Pivot. Then it backed off 5 ticks and traded sideways into the unemployment claims and trade balance reports.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 9.4.2014

Trade Balance, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Sep 212014

9/4/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 298K
Actual: 302K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.009531 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009546 – 0830:23 (1 min)
)))15 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009532 – 0831:07 (2 min)
)))-14 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.009524 – 0837 (7 min)
22 ticks

Pullback to 0.009535 – 0844 (14 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009521 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009512 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009541 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009550 (on the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with only 4k offset while the concurrently released Trade Balance came in 2.0B better than the forecast to conflict and cause a long reaction of 15 ticks. This would filled your inner tier and fallen short of the outer by 4-5 ticks. Then it would have reversed quickly for 14 ticks in the early part of the :02 bar, then continued for another 8 ticks in the next 5 min. Look to exit below the PP Pivot for about 9-10 ticks. After struggling with the S1 Pivot and reaching the 100 SMA, it pulled back for 11 ticks in the next 7 min to the PP Pivot.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 9.4.2014

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Sep 212014

9/4/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 57.3
Actual: 59.6
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009523
1st Peak @ 0.009518 – 1000:00 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.009527 – 1006 (6 min)
9 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.009507 – 1049 (49 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.009520 – 1130 (90 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Strongly positive report exceeded the forecast by 2.3 points. This caused a short reaction of only 5 ticks that started on the 13 and fell to cross the S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.009520 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 1 tick in the latter 40 sec of the :31 bar after some retracement. It reversed 9 ticks, crossing the 200SMA and reaching the 50 SMA, presenting a great 2nd peak trade opportunity. A short trade at 0.009525 would have been ideal. It fell for a stepped final peak of 11 more ticks in the next 43 min, using the 13/20 SMAs as resistance and fighting through the S2 Pivot to reach the LOD. A target around 0.009512 would have been safe and prudent for about 13 ticks. After the 2nd peak, it reversed for 13 ticks in 41 min crossing the 50/100 SMAs and reaching the S2 Mid Pivot.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 9.11.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Sep 212014

9/11/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 306K
Actual: 315K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009346 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009351 – 0830:44 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009348 – 0831:28 (2 min)
)))-3 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009377 – 0900 (30 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 0.009357 – 0914 (44 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009338 (just below the S2 Pivot) / 0.009326 (just above the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009355 (in between the S1 Mid /S1 Pivots) / 0.009366 (just below the PP Pivot)

Notes: Report came in disappointing with 9k offset with no other news to cause a dull 5 tick long spike to the S1 Pivot. This would have fallen several ticks short of the inner short entry, so cancel the order. After a small reversal on the :32 bar, it climbed for a slow developing 2nd peak of 26 more ticks in the next 28 min to reach the HOD. Then it fell 20 ticks in the next 14 min to the S1 Mid Pivot and 50 SMA.

ES 09-14 (1 Min) 9.5.2014

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Sep 232014

9/5/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 226K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 142K
Previous Revision: +3K to 212K
Rate Forecast: 6.1%
Rate Actual: 6.1%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 1990.25 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1994.75 – 0830:07 (1 min)
)))18 ticks

)))Reversal to 1990.00 – 0830:20 (1 min)
)))-19 ticks

)))Pullback to 1996.25 – 0831:22 (2 min)
)))25 ticks

)))Reversal to 1991.50 – 0831:51 (2 min)
)))-19 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 1999.25 – 0843 (13 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 1991.00 – 0902 (32 min)
33 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1984.00 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 1980.00 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 1997.00 (just below the OOD) / 1999.75 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Strongly negative report with 84K less jobs added than the forecast, a negligible upward revision to the previous report and a match on the U-3 rate of 6.1%. We saw a long spike of only 18 ticks in the first 7 sec then choppy trading between the peak and just above the 200 SMA for a few sec before a reversal to the origin in the next 10 sec. Then it rebounded for 25 ticks in the next minute. This would have fallen about 8-9 ticks short of the inner short order and it did not offer a great opportunity to manually move the order in closer. However we see the trend after the first 2 bars is to swing between the 1990 – 1991 area and the area around 1996 – 1998 so buying at the bottom and selling at the top each time would have been safe and profitable. The 0843 bar is a bearish indicator (shooting star) and a great short opportunity. It kept swinging until the final reversal ended at 1042, then rallied until the close as the results were interpreted to keep the FED in a dovish mood.

NG 10-14 (1 Min) 9.4.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Sep 252014

9/4/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 72B
Actual: 79B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 3.866
1st Peak @ 3.789 – 1030:01 (1 min)
77 ticks

Reversal to 3.821 – 1033 (3 min)
32 ticks

Pullback to 3.791 – 1039 (9 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 3.818 – 1058 (28 min)
27 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast by 7BCF which caused a quick short spike of 77 ticks after a premature short move of about 8 ticks 1 sec before the report. The spike started on the PP Pivot then fell to cross the 100/200 SMAs, the LOD and the S2 MidPivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.826 with about 30 ticks of slippage, then seen it briefly reverse to just below your stop before falling to hover around 3.800 to 3.797 on the S2 Mid Pivot. Look to exit there for about 25-30 ticks. Then it reversed for 32 ticks in the next 2 bars to cross the S1 Pivot not allowing a great setup for the 3 min reversal. After the reversal it pulled back in the next 6 min to fall just short of a double bottom. Then it reversed 27 ticks in 28 min to cross the S1 Pivot again.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 9.12.2014

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Sep 282014

9/12/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EDT)
Forecast: 83.2
Actual: 84.6
TRAP TRADE (DULL – No Fill)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009322 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009319 – 0956:36 (2 min)
)))-3 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009323 – 0957:51 (3 min)
)))4 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.009335 – 1017 (22 min)
16 ticks

Pullback to 0.009318 – 1044 (49 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009316 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009306 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009328 (just above the 100 SMA) / 0.009339 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in higher than the forecast by only 1.4 points causing a dull 3 tick short spike after 96 sec as it tested the area of support near the LOD and S2 Mid Pivot, but did not have the impulse and momentum to break through, so it retreated 4 ticks after 1 more min. This would have missed you inner long entry and shown no real movement, so cancel the order. After the initial reversal, it continued to climb for another 12 ticks in the next 20 min, crossing the 200 SMA. Then it pulled back 17 ticks in 27 min to reach the LOD. After that it traded sideways between the S1 Pivot and LOD.

ZC 07-15 (1 Min) 5.12.2015

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

May 162015

5/12/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) / Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 359.25
1st Peak @ 364.00 – 1200:01 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 358.75 – 1200:15 (1 min)
21 ticks

Pullback to 363.75 – 1202 (2 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 358.25 – 1205 (5 min)
22 ticks

2nd Peak @ 365.75 – 1221 (21 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 360.75 – 1233 (33 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 365.00 – 1250 (50 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a quick long spike for 19 ticks that started on the 50/200 SMAs and climbed to cross the HOD and R1 Pivot in 1 sec. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 361.25 with 3 ticks of slippage. Then it peaked and hovered near the top for 6 sec to give the signal to exit. As mentioned in the alert, look to exit at the first sign of hovering as a reversal is likely coming. So exit with about 5-10 ticks around the R1 Pivot. After that it reversed back to the origin in 14 sec and hovered for 22 sec before climbing for a double top on the next bar. Then it reversed to the OOD for 22 ticks in 3 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks to nearly reach the R2 Pivot in 16 min. Finally it reversed 20 ticks in 12 min to the PP Pivot / 100 SMA before pulling back 17 ticks in 17 min to the R2 Mid Pivot. As the initial reaction swung back and forth about 20 ticks, this would have offered multiple opportunities to buy the dips and sell the tops.

Older Entries Newer Entries