CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3.16.2016

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3.16.2016
Apr 122016
 

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3_16_2016

3/16/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.41M
Actual: 1.32M
Gasoline
Forecast: -2.34M
Actual: -0.75M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.08M
Actual: -1.14M
DULL FILL
Started @ 39.04
1st Peak @ 39.33 – 1030:00 (1 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 38.99 – 1030:22 (1 min)
34 ticks

Pullback to 39.32 – 1030:36 (1 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 38.82 – 1034 (4 min)
50 ticks

Pullback to 39.31 – 1045 (15 min)
49 ticks

Expected Fill: 39.19 (long)
Slippage: 5 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 39.19 – Breakeven
Recommended Profit Target placement: 39.36 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Unsustainable long spike reached the HOD then promptly recoiled. It hovered at the fill point for 4 sec before dropping and hovering 9 ticks lower. Either place would have presented an opportunity to exit near the entry or for a smaller loss than a full stop out. Otherwise the stop would have been taken after about 13 sec. After that it oscillated between the HOD and 50 SMA with one excursion to the 100 SMA.

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3.24.2016

 Durable Goods  Comments Off on 6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3.24.2016
Apr 102016
 

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3_24_2016

3/24/2016 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: -0.2%
Core Actual: -1.0%
Previous revision: -0.1% to 1.7%
Regular Forecast: -3.0%
Regular Actual: -2.8%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to 4.7%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008899
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008908 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008897 – 0833:58 (4 min)
)))-11 ticks
————
2nd Peak @0.008917 – 0847 (17 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.008907 – 0859 (6 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:10-12/20-24
Long entries – 0.008888 (on the S1 Pivot) / 0.008877 (No SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008910 (No SMA/Pivot near) / 0.008921 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot/ OOD)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a.
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Conflicting report caused a quick spike that reversed. Unfortunately the spike was a few ticks too small to breach the inner short tier. Cancel the order on the miss. After a reversal to the S1 Mid Pivot, it rebounded for a 2nd peak to the OOD.

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3.18.2016

 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment  Comments Off on 6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3.18.2016
Apr 102016
 

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3_18_2016

3/18/2016 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 92.1
Actual: 90.0
Previous Revision: +1.0 to 91.7
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008993
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008986 – 1000:47 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008989 – 1000:56 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008984 – 1003 (3 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.08996 – 1010 (10 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008987 (just below the 50/100 SMAs) / 0.008978 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 0.008999 (just above the OOD) / 0.009009 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Movement only strayed 3 ticks from the anchor point/origin up to 40 sec after the release, so cancel the order. Nice reversal after support held below the 50/100 SMAs.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.16.2016

 CPI  Comments Off on ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.16.2016
Apr 032016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3_16_2016ZB 06-16 (Second) 3_16_2016

3/16/2016 Core CPI (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.3%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: -0.2%
Regular Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 161’31
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 161’20 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 161’25 – 0830:38 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 161’14 – 0833 (3 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 161’23 – 0836 (6 min)
9 ticks

Final Peak @ 161’09 – 0841 (11 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 161’20 – 0902 (32 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 161’25 (just below the 200 SMA) / 161’18 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 162’05 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 162’12 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 161’25 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: 161’25 – Breakeven
Recommended Profit Target placement: 161’27 (just above the 200 SMA / PP Pivot)

Notes: Report caused a mostly decisive short reaction to offer a breakeven exit. The 200 SMA and PP Pivot on top of each other will normally cause a recoil, which did happen but was too short lived. It fell 11 ticks and hovered for 30 sec. You could have moved the outer tier up to 161’21 for a fill as a reversal is likely. Then it reversed 5 ticks and hovered just below the 200 SMA for 22 sec. Look to exit at breakeven or 161’24 for a 1 tick loss (2 tick net profit with the adjusted outer tier fill). Then it stepped lower for a 2nd and final peak.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.15.2016

 Retail Sales  Comments Off on ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.15.2016
Apr 032016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3_15_2016ZB 06-16 (Second) 3_15_2016

3/15/2016 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: -0.2%
Core Actual: -0.1%
Previous revision: -0.5% to -0.4%
Regular Forecast: -0.1%
Regular Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: -0.6% to -0.4%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 162’08
1st Peak @ 162’02 – 0830:00 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 162’17 – 0830:36 (1 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 162’09 – 0830:54 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 162’19 – 0908 (38 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 162’03 – 0931 (61 min)
16 ticks

Expected Fill: 162’05 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 162’06 – 1 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: 161’30 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Notes: It stabbed lower on the near matching-slightly bullish results with the core reading, but the previous revision was very bearish to give it a conflicting signal. The current reading gets first notice, then the revision, but normally the revision is small or the current reading is strongly biased so the revision is overlooked. So it would have filled short then reversed to a few ticks in the red and hovered.

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.24.2016

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.24.2016
Apr 032016
 

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3_24_2016

3/24/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 20B
Actual: 15B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.786
1st Peak @ 1.801 – 1030:00 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 1.780 – 1030:14 (1 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.815 – 1031:47 (2 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.790 – 1035 (5 min)
25 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.827 – 1054 (24 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 1.792 – 1119 (49 min)
35 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.797 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 1.800 – 3 ticks (1.796 likely exit – 1 tick loss)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.814 (just above the HOD) and 1.823 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Very small spike initially of only 15 ticks stalled and hovered for 9 sec before reversing strongly offering a warning to exit. Move the stop up to a few ticks in the red or close near breakeven. After that it cycled higher for a 2nd and Final peak with large reversals in between.

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.17.2016

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.17.2016
Apr 032016
 

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3_17_2016

3/17/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -9B
Actual: -1B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.878
1st Peak @ 1.855 – 1030:02 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.885 – 1041 (11 min)
30 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.830 – 1056 (26 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 1.849 – 1136 (66 min)
19 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.912 – 1256 (146 min)
82 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.866 (short)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.856 – 10 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.855 (just below the PP Pivot) and 1.844 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Small spike fell to the PP Pivot, hovered and reversed. Due to the strong support of the PP Pivot, exit at first sign of hovering or a bounce from the low point. Then a reversal to the 100 SMA followed by a 2nd peak to the S1 Pivot. Then a slow developing reversal to the R2 Mid Pivot.

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.10.2016

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3.10.2016
Apr 022016
 

NG 04-16 (1 Min) 3_10_2016

3/10/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -51B
Actual: -57B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.786
1st Peak @ 1.752 – 1030:05 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 1.772 – 1030:53 (1 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.734 – 1035 (5 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 1.782 – 1044 (14 min)
48 ticks

Pullback to 1.737 – 1150 (80 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 1.774 – 1205 (95 min)
37 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.767 (short)
Slippage: 9 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.753 – 14 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.754 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Moderate spike with a nice 2nd peak to target the S1 Mid Pivot and LOD. Then a strong and quick reversal to the SMA cluster. Another cycle panned out in the next 1.5 hrs.

ZC 05-16 (1 Min) 3.9.2016

 WASDE - Corn  Comments Off on ZC 05-16 (1 Min) 3.9.2016
Apr 012016
 

ZC 05-16 (1 Min) 3_9_2016

3/9/2016 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 358.00
1st Peak @ 360.25 – 1200:21 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 358.50 – 1200:52 (1 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 361.50 – 1206 (6 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 358.50 – 1223 (23 min)
12 ticks

Expected Fill: 359.25 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Exit: 360.25 – 4 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 361.50 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) – move down a few ticks after small spike

Notes: Small spike offered no slippage fill then peaked just below the HOD and hovered to allow 3-4 ticks to be captured. Then a reversal and 2nd peak for 5 more ticks to the R1 Mid Pivot and a final reversal.

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 3.4.2016

 Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly  Comments Off on FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 3.4.2016
Mar 302016
 

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 3_4_2016FDAX 03-16 (Second) 3_4_2016

3/4/2016 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 195K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 242K
Previous Revision: +21K to 172K
Rate Forecast: 4.9%
Rate Actual: 4.9%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 9839.0
1st Peak @ 9876.0 – 0830:01 (1 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 9848.0 – 0830:23 (1 min)
56 ticks

2nd Peak @ 9900.0 – 0836 (6 min)
122 ticks

Reversal to 9769.0 – 0902 (32 min)
262 ticks

Expected Fill: 9863.5 (long)
Slippage: 39 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 9869.5 – 12 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 9870.0 (just above the HOD) – move lower

Notes: Slippage was huge so we will implement limit orders on the next one. Be sure to exit with the hovering before it fell to the stop after 20 sec. A nice 2nd peak for 50 more ticks after 6 min then a huge reversal in the following 30 min.

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