Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 12-14 (1 Min) 11.5.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Dec 012014

11/5/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 1.90M
Actual: 0.46M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.00M
Actual: -1.38M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.95M
Actual: -0.72M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 78.05
1st Peak @ 78.21 – 1030:00 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 77.75 – 1031:04 (2 min)
46 ticks

Final Peak @ 79.35 – 1054 (24 min)
130 ticks

Reversal to 77.63 – 1126 (56 min)
172 ticks

Notes: Modest gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a slightly larger moderate draw than what was expected, and distillates saw a modest draw when a moderate draw was expected. This caused a whipsaw initially as the price climbed 16 ticks in the first second then fell 14 ticks immediately. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 78.17 with 2 ticks of slippage, then you would have been stopped out to the tick for 15 ticks loss on the next second at 78.02. It continued to chop around without conviction as it reversed 46 ticks in the next minute to the R1 Pivot, then climbed for a 2nd peak of 114 more ticks in the next 22 min as it reached the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 172 ticks in the next 32 min as it crossed the 200 SMA and R1 Pivot. The small deviations from the forecasts to the actual results caused initial instability followed by large swings.

CL 12-14 (1 Min) 11.13.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Dec 012014

11/13/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 0.75M
Actual: -1.74M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.52M
Actual: 1.81M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.33M
Actual: -2.80M
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 75.75
1st Peak @ 75.88 – 1100:14 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 75.32 – 1100:54 (1 min)
56 ticks

Pullback to 75.64 – 1110 (10 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 75.16 – 1128 (28 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a modest gain was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate gain when a modest gain was expected, and distillates saw a larger moderate draw when a moderate draw was expected. This caused a dull reaction initially that took 12 sec to break outside of 10 ticks away from the origin. You should have cancelled the order after 10 sec with no impulse and we see a failure to do that would have presented an undesirable fill long just before it reversed. It peaked at 13 ticks after 14 sec to reach the 100 SMA, then reversed 56 ticks late in the :01 bar to cross the S3 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD. Then it pulled back 32 ticks in 9 min to the 50 SMA. After that it chopped sideways on the S3 Mid Pivot then reversed 48 ticks in 18 min.

ES 12-14 (1 Min) 12.5.2014

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Dec 232014

12/5/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 231K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 321K
Previous Revision: +29K to 243K
Rate Forecast: 5.8%
Rate Actual: 5.8%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 2074.75 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 2077.00 – 0830:24 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 2068.50 – 0831:38 (2 min)
)))-34 ticks
————
Pullback to 2075.25 – 0838 (8 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 2069.50 – 0905 (35 min)
23 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 2068.25 (just below the LOD) / 2064.75 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 2081.00 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 2085.50 (just below the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Strong report with 90K more jobs added than the forecast, a healthy upward revision to the previous report and no change on the U-3 rate at 5.8%. We saw a small long spike of only 9 ticks in the first 24 sec to eclipse the HOD then a reversal of 34 ticks in the next 74 sec that crossed the PP Pivot and extended the LOD. This would have fallen short of the inner short order, and not allowed a manual entry as it did not hover. After the reversal, it pulled back 27 ticks in 6 min to the R1 Mid Pivot before reversing 23 ticks in 27 min. After that it chopped in between the PP Pivot and HOD for the next few hours.

NG 12-14 (1 Min) 11.6.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Dec 242014

11/6/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 86B
Actual: 91B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.156
1st Peak @ 4.111 – 1030:02 (1 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 4.179 – 1034 (4 min)
78 ticks

Pullback to 4.137 – 1038 (8 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 4.176 – 1045 (15 min)
39 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a short spike of 45 ticks after minimal premature volatility. The spike fell to cross the S1 Pivot then hovered for 4 sec before it started to back off. It retreated back to near the origin as the :31 bar expired, then continued to reverse for another 32 ticks in the next 3 min as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and 50 SMA. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at about 4.131 with 15 ticks of slippage. A profit target of about 15-20 ticks would have filled immediately. Otherwise, look to exit near the S1 Pivot as it started to retreat to capture about 5-8 ticks. After the reversal it pulled back 41 ticks in 4 min. Then it reversed 39 ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot and 100 SMA in the next 7 min.

NG 12-14 (1 Min) 11.14.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Dec 242014

11/14/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 37B
Actual: 40B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.032
1st Peak @ 3.981 – 1030:51 (1 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 4.020 – 1033 (3 min)
39 ticks

Final Peak @ 3.931 – 1123 (53 min)
101 ticks

Reversal to 4.056 – 1320 (170 min)
125 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a short spike of 28 ticks initially, then another 23 ticks after a minor retreat toward the end of the bar. The initial spike struggled with the 200 SMA, then was able to break free and fall to nearly reach the OOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at about 4.015 with about 7 ticks of slippage. It is unlikely a profit target would have filled on this report as only 13 ticks were available initially. With the small spike relative to the trend and a legitimate cause (200 SMA), it would be low risk to wait for a delayed drop to push lower. As it trickled lower and hovered for over 10 sec at 3.985, look to exit there with about 30 ticks. After that it reversed 39 ticks in 2 min to the 100 SMA. Then it stepped lower for a final peak of 50 more ticks in the next 50 min crossing the S1 Mid Pivot and extending the LOD. Then it reversed 125 ticks in the next 2 hrs to reach to the HOD and PP Pivot.

NG 12-14 (1 Min) 11.20.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Dec 242014

11/20/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -12B
Actual: -17B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.399
1st Peak @ 4.502 – 1031:21 (2 min)
103 ticks

Reversal to 4.384 – 1046 (16 min)
118 ticks

Extended Reversal to 4.315 – 1118 (48 min)
187 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a long spike of 50 ticks initially then another 53 ticks over the next 80 sec without any significant retreat. The spike rose to find initial resistance just below the R1 Mid Pivot, then proceeded to target the HOD shifting it up. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at about 4.430 with 20+ ticks of slippage. A profit target of about 15-20 ticks would have filled immediately. Otherwise, a patient exit would have been prudent on this report as it did not hover until about 35 sec after the report at the HOD. An exit there would have secured 50+ ticks. After peaking in the middle of the :32 bar, it backed off to chop below the old HOD position for about 10 min, then reversed 118 ticks in the next 8 min as it crossed the OOD and 3 Major SMAs. Then it chopped sideways and fell another 69 ticks in the next 32 min, crossing the PP Pivot and extending the LOD.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 11.25.2014

Prelim GDP Comments Off

Dec 272014

11/25/2014 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0830 EST)
Forecast: 3.3%
Actual: 3.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 142’08
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 142’00 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 142’05 – 0830:18 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Pullback to 142’01 – 0834 (4 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 142’11 – 0842 (12 min)
10 ticks

Double Bottom @ 142’00 – 0906 (36 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 142’15 – 0948 (78 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 142’03 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot / OOD) / 142’01 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 142’13 (just above the 200/100 SMAs) / 142’15 (in between the R1 Mid Pivot / HOD)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.6%, causing a short spike of 8 ticks in 6 sec that crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and LOD then retreated 5 ticks in the next 12 sec. This would have filled both the inner and outer long entries for a 2 tier fill making your average position 142’02. As it reversed, it hovered at 142’04 for 25 sec allowing an easy quick exit for 2 ticks (4 ticks total on the average position). After that it pulled back to 142’01 3 min later, then reversed 10 ticks to the 100/200 SMAs in the next 8 min. Then it fell for a double bottom after 24 min before reversing 15 ticks in 42 min to the R2 Mid Pivot.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.19.2014

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Dec 282014

11/19/2014 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EDT)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.04M
Actual: 1.08M
Previous revision: +0.01 to 1.03M
Housing Starts
Forecast: 1.03M
Actual: 1.01M
Previous revision: +0.02 to 1.04M
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 0.008506
1st Peak @ 0.008509 – 0831:47 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 0.008499 – 0835 (5 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008512 – 0840 (10 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report was conflicting with the BLDG Permits exceeding the forecast by 0.04M and the Housing starts falling short of the forecast by 0.02M. This caused a dull reaction that took nearly 2 min to climb 3 ticks. With JOBB, you should have cancelled the order with no fill after 10 sec. After the small peak, it reversed 10 ticks in the next 3 min to the LOD. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks after 5 min. After that it trickled lower as the report faded away.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.20.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Dec 282014

11/20/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 286K
Actual: 291K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008460
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008448 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008458 – 0832:43 (3 min)
)))10 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008446 – 0837 (7 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.008487 – 0850 (20 min)
41 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008451 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.008440 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008470 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008478 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in modestly weak with 5k offset while the concurrent CPI report exceeded the forecast by 0.1%. This caused an initial short spike of 12 ticks that eclipsed the S2 Mid Pivot in 2 sec. It traded sideways around the S2 Mid Pivot for the entire bar before reversing. This would have filled your inner long entry with 3 ticks to spare. Since the reversal can take a few min to develop, be patient as it retreated 10 ticks in the next 3 min to the 13 SMA allowing about 6 ticks to be captured. After that it pulled back 12 ticks for a double bottom in 4 min. Then it reversed strongly for 41 ticks in the next 13 min, crossing the S1 Mid Pivot and HOD.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.20.2014

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Dec 282014

11/20/2014 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EST)
Forecast: 18.9
Actual: 40.8
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION…SPIKE/ REVERSE
Started @ 0.008474
1st Peak @ 0.008458 – 1000:26 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.008471 – 1002 (2 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008452 – 1009 (9 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.008482 – 1025 (25 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast with a delta of about 22 pts, causing a delayed short spike of 16 ticks that started on the 100 SMA and fell after 23 sec to cross the S1 Pivot, 200 SMA, and OOD. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 0.008471 with no slippage on some early movement at 9 sec, then you would have seen it stall until 23 sec when it fell for another 14 ticks. It hovered at or below 0.008461 for 5 sec to allow an exit with 10 ticks. Then it reversed 13 ticks in the next min back to the 200 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in the next 7 min. Then it reversed 23 ticks in 16 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot.

Older Entries Newer Entries