Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.22.2014

CPI Comments Off

Jan 132015

10/22/2014 Core CPI (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.0%
Regular Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009350
1st Peak @ 0.009333 – 0831:09 (2 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.009345 – 0837 (7 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009320 – 0902 (32 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.009337 – 0944 (74 min)
17 ticks

Notes: The core reading fell short of the forecast by 0.1% while the broader reading exceeded the forecast by 0.1%. This caused a 17 tick short spike that started on the 20 SMA and fell to nearly reach the S3 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 0.009343 with 3 ticks of slippage. You would have seen it hover at 0.009336 for a long time in the middle of the :31 bar, so look to exit there with about 7 ticks. After testing the S3 Mid Pivot a few more times, it reversed for 12 ticks in 5 min to the 20 SMA and S2 Pivot. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks in 25 min to nearly reach the S3 Pivot before reversing 17 ticks in 42 min to the 100 SMA.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 12.17.2014

CPI Comments Off

Jan 132015

12/17/2014 Core CPI (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: -0.1%
Regular Actual: -0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008543
1st Peak @ 0.008557 – 0830:06 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.008545 – 0837 (7 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008569 – 0908 (38 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.008539 – 0943 (73 min)
30 ticks

Notes: The core reading matched the forecast while the broader reading fell short of the forecast by 0.2%. This caused a 14 tick long spike that started on the 200 SMA and climbed to reach the PP Pivot. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 0.008550 with 3 ticks of slippage. You would have seen it hit the PP Pivot then back off slowly you could have exited immediately with about 3-5 ticks, or wait for the secondary push later in the bar to get out for about the same result. After the peak it reversed 12 ticks in 6 min to the 20 SMA. Then it chopped for about 10 min before climbing to a 2nd peak of 12 more ticks in 31 min. Then it reversed 30 ticks in 35 min , crossing all 3 major SMAs.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 1.6.2015

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jan 152015

1/6/2015 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 58.2
Actual: 56.2
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008417
1st Peak @ 0.008436 – 1001:59 (2 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.008420 – 1007 (7 min)
16 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.008403 – 1032 (32 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 2.0 points to cause a long spike of 19 ticks that started just above the 13 SMA and rose to cross the R3 Mid Pivot and eclipse the HOD after 2 min. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.008421 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it slowly climb and conduct most of the ascent on the :32 bar. It did hover around 1-2 ticks of profit, but this is a case where there is no resistance barrier and a good forecast offset to allow a low risk wait for more ticks. Early exit would have secured 1-3 ticks, but a patient exit could have secured up to 15 ticks. After the peak, it reversed strongly due to the resistance of the R3 Mid Pivot and HOD, garnering 16 ticks in 5 min to the 13 SMA. Then it fell another 17 ticks in 25 min to the 200 SMA.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 1.7.2015

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Jan 192015

1/7/2015 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 227K
Actual: 241K
Previous revision: +19K to 227K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008385 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008369 – 0815:02 (1 min)
)))-16 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008387 – 0817:45 (3 min)
)))18 ticks
————
Double Bottom @ 0.008369 – 0826 (11 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.008387 – 0844 (38 min)
18 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008375 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.008366 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008394 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 0.008404 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in 14k above the forecast to cause a quick and fleeting 16 tick short move in 2 sec to cross the S2 Mid Pivot followed by a 9 tick reversal after 8 sec then another 9 ticks in the next 2.5 min. This would have filled the inner long entry with 6 ticks to spare but missed the outer tier by 3 ticks. The reversal was quick, but it remained around the fill point for about a minute before ascending back to the 20 SMA in the next 2 bars allowing about 9 ticks to be captured on the 13 SMA. After that it fell for a double bottom in 8 min before reversing 18 ticks in 27 min to cross the 50 SMA.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 1.8.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jan 192015

1/8/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Forecast: 291K
Actual: 294K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008361
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.008357 – 0.008360 – 0831 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008353 (just below the 50 SMA) / 0.008341 (on the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008370 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008379 (just above the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with 3k offset. This caused a muted response with the :31 bar only moving within a 3 tick range overall. This would have been an obvious scenario to cancel the order on the dull movement and small reaction. It continued to have no impulse until 3 min after the report when something else probably caused it rally over 30 min.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 1.15.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jan 192015

1/15/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 299K
Actual: 316K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008584
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008574 – 0830:17 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008580 – 0830:30 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008567 – 0831:34 (2 min)
)))-13 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 0.008533 – 0918 (48 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 0.008571 – 0930 (30 min)
38 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008575 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008565 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008594 (on the R1 Pivot) / 0.008603 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in worse than expected with 17k offset with a modestly positive PPI report. This caused a short move of 10 ticks in 17 sec that crossed the 100/200 SMAs and the R1 Mid Pivot then reversed. This would have filled your inner long entry with 1 tick to spare, then allowed 4 ticks to be captured where it hovered for 7 sec on the 200 SMA. Then it fell another 7 ticks in the next minute and continued to fall another 34 ticks in the next 46 min to the OOD. After that it reversed 38 ticks in 12 min to the 100 SMA.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 1.16.2015

CPI Comments Off

Jan 252015

1/16/2014 Core CPI (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: 0.0%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: -0.3%
Regular Actual: -0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008587
1st Peak @ 0.008601 – 0830:01 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.008576 – 0835 (5 min)
25 ticks

Pullback to 0.008583 – 0837 (7 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.008564 – 0848 (18 min)
19 ticks

Notes: The core reading fell short of the forecast by 0.1% while the broader reading also fell short of the forecast by 0.1%. This caused a 14 tick long spike that started just below the 50 SMA and climbed to cross the R1 Mid Pivot then back off and chop. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 0.008596 with 5 ticks of slippage. You would have seen it chop between 2 ticks of heat and 4 ticks of profit for about 17 sec. When observing this condition it is best to move the profit target into the upper range of the movement and move the stop loss to 0.008592 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot. This would have secured about 3 ticks. It made a later push for a double top early in the :32 bar to allow up to 5 ticks to be captured, then it reversed 25 ticks in 5 min , crossing the 100/200 SMAs. After a small pullback of 7 ticks in 2 min, it continued to fall another 19 ticks, crossing the PP Pivot and reaching the LOD in 11 min.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 1.16.2015

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Jan 252015

1/16/2015 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EST)*Late time change
Forecast: 94.2
Actual: 98.2
TRAP TRADE – DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.0008549 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008543 – 1000:00 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Hovering @ 0.008543 until 1000:07 (1 min)

)))2nd peak @ 0.008526 – 1000:42 (1 min)
)))-17 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008540 – 1001:50 (2 min)
)))14 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008527 – 1009 (9 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.008544 – 1016 (16 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008543 (just above the LOD) / 0.008534 (no SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008556 (just below the 50 SMA) / 0.008563 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: There was a late decision to move the report to a more normal release time at 1000, but this would likely have caught you by surprise. Had you traded it at 0955, you can see it would have resulted in a cancel due to a small move. That would have been a fortunate blessing in this case as we had a 2nd consecutive report with a large deviation to cause a relatively huge move. The report came in higher than the forecast by 4.0 points causing an initial 6 tick short move, then another 17 ticks in the next 42 sec which would have filled your inner and outer tiers then peaked at 8 ticks of heat on the S2 Mid Pivot. After that it reversed for 14 ticks to allow a best case exit at 0.008539 for a breakeven exit. Then it pulled back 13 ticks in 7 min for a double bottom before reversing 17 ticks to nearly reach the S1 Pivot and 50 SMA. After 1016, the market continued to fall in line with the downtrend that started at about 0915.

ES 03-15 (1 Min) 1.9.2015

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jan 262015

1/9/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 241K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 252K
Previous Revision: +32K to 353K
Rate Forecast: 5.7%
Rate Actual: 5.6%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 2046.50 – shift to 2047.75 (up 5 ticks)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 2051.75 – 0830:26 (1 min)
)))16 ticks

)))Reversal to 2048.75 – 0830:35 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 2060.00 – 0833 (3 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 2054.00 – 0835 (5 min)
24 ticks

Final Peak @ 2062.00 – 0840 (10 min)
57 ticks

Reversal to 2054.50 – 0853 (23 min)
30 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 2041.50 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 20337.75 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 2068.25 (just below the LOD) / 2057.75 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Strong report with 11K more jobs added than the forecast, a healthy upward revision to the previous report and an improvement on the U-3 rate of 0.1% to 5.6%. We saw a small long spike of only 16 ticks in the first 26 sec to eclipse the 200 SMA and PP Pivot and hover. This would have fallen short of the inner short order, but the hovering for about 12 sec would have allowed a manual shift to about 2051.00 that would have filled. This would have allowed 8-10 ticks to be captured where it hovered above the 100 SMA. After that it climbed again for a 2nd peak of 33 more ticks in 2 min as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and extended the HOD before reversing 24 ticks in 2 min to the OOD. Then it climbed for a final peak of 8 more ticks in 5 min before reversing 30 ticks in 13 min to the OOD. As the equity indexes do not like large quick moves, it reversed completely about an hour after the report back to the LOD.

CL 02-15 (1 Min) 1.7.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Feb 012015

1/7/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.88M
Actual: -3.06M
Gasoline
Forecast: 3.38M
Actual: 8.12M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.86M
Actual: 11.21M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 48.94
1st Peak @ 48.20 – 1031:34 (2 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 48.62 – 1034 (4 min)
42 ticks

2nd Peak @ 47.72 – 1041 (11 min)
122 ticks

Reversal to 48.42 – 1054 (24 min)
70 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a negligible gain was expected, while gasoline and distillates saw very large gains when moderate gains were expected. Since the draw in crude caused the large gain in the products due to refinery output, the news was strongly bearish for the CL. This caused a decisive short move of 74 ticks in about 1.5 min that started on the 50 SMA and fell to cross the 100/200 SMAs and the PP Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 48.80 with 4 ticks of slippage. With the results, be patient for it to keep falling. A target placed around the 200 SMA or PP Pivot would have secured about 40-50 ticks. After that it reversed 42 ticks in 2 min to nearly reach the 100 SMA. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 48 more ticks in 7 min to the S1 Mid Pivot. After that it reversed 70 ticks in 13 min back to the PP Pivot.

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