Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 03-15 (1 Min) 2.11.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 092015

2/11/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 3.73M
Actual: 4.87M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.20M
Actual: 1.98M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.82M
Actual: -3.25M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 48.74
1st Peak @ 48.05 – 1031:19 (2 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 48.45 – 1033 (3 min)
40 ticks

Pullback to 48.18 – 1035 (5 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 50.01 – 1223 (113 min)
183 ticks

Notes: Another large gain in inventories when a healthy gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a moderate draw when a negligible draw was expected. This caused a short move that started on the 13 SMA and fell slowly and methodically for 69 ticks in about 80 sec. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 48.61 with 3 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it fall and eclipse the S2 Pivot allowing up to 55 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 40 ticks in 2 min before pulling back 27 ticks in 2 min to fall short of the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed 183 ticks in 108 min to the S1 Mid Pivot.

ES 03-15 (1 Min) 2.6.2015

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Mar 122015

2/6/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 236K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 257K
Previous Revision: +77K to 329K
Rate Forecast: 5.6%
Rate Actual: 5.7%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 2055.50
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 2060.75 – 0830:04 (1 min)
)))21 ticks

)))Reversal to 2057.75 – 0830:11 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Pullback to 2063.25 – 0831:23 (2 min)
)))22 ticks

)))Reversal to 2057.50 – 0832:55 (3 min)
)))-23 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 2065.50 – 0847 (17 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 2057.00 – 0935 (65 min)
34 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 2049.00 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 2045.50 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 2062.00 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 2065.25 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Strong report with 21K more jobs added than the forecast, a healthy upward revision to the previous report along with a 0.1% increase in the U-3 rate of 0.1% to 5.7% due to the labor force expanding. We saw a small long spike of only 21 ticks in the first 4 sec to eclipse the HOD but fall short of the R1 Pivot. This would have been about 5 ticks short of the inner short entry and it hovered for about 4 sec to be allow a marginal chance to shift the tier lower. If you did, you would have filled short at about 2059.75 then had an opportunity a few sec later to exit with 5-6 ticks on a small reversal. If you did not try the manual shift, cancel the order. It gained another 22 ticks to eclipse the R1 Pivot about 1 min later. Then it reversed 23 ticks on the next bar to the 13 SMA. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 19 more ticks to eclipse the R2 Mid Pivot in 14 min before falling 34 ticks in 48 min to the R1 Mid Pivot.

ZC 03-15 (1 Min) 1.12.2015

Grain Stocks, WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Feb 092015

1/12/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) / Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 397.50
1st Peak @ 407.00 – 1200:22 (1 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 390.25 – 1201:41 (2 min)
67 ticks

Pullback to 403.00 – 1206 (6 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 393.50 – 1212 (12 min)
38 ticks

Pullback to 406.00 – 1326 (86 min)
50 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a roller coaster type reaction. It climbed 38 ticks, crossing the R2 Pivot then hovered before reversing around 20 sec after the top of the hour. This is very common with this report and was advised in the alert. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 398.75 with no slippage as the initial ascent was slow and tame. Then it hovered around 406.00 for 10 sec to allow an exit for about 25-30 ticks. Then it reversed 67 ticks in about 80 sec to nearly reach the S3 Mid Pivot before pulling back 51 ticks in 4 min to the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed 38 ticks in 6 min to the S2 Mid Pivot before pulling back 50 ticks in 74 min to the R2 Pivot.

ZS 03-15 (1 Min) 2.10.2015

WASDE - Beans Comments Off

Mar 132015

2/10/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 978.50 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 986.00 – 1201:10 (1 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 972.25 – 1204 (4 min)
55 ticks

Pullback to 981.00 – 1212 (12 min)
35 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the initial reaction would have been choppy and marginally safe if you were patient past the first 30 sec, but the alternate approach wins out again. As usual, it would have been fairly tame as it hovered around the PP Pivot to provide an anchor point at 978.50 at 32 sec. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 980.00 with no slippage, then you would have seen it climb steadily for about 30 sec to cross the R1 Pivot and nearly reach the R2 Mid Pivot for 30 ticks. It hovered near the top for 7 sec to provide a trigger to exit with at least 20 ticks. Then it reversed 55 ticks in 2 min to cross the S1 Pivot and nearly reach the LOD. Then it pulled back 35 ticks in 8 min to the R1 Mid Pivot. We advised on the alert when the fill is in the same direction as the first spike to exit quickly and have a smaller profit goal. Along with that, it offered a great reversal trade opportunity.

NG 03-15 (1 Min) 2.5.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 152015

2/5/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -119B
Actual: -115B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.622
1st Peak @ 2.578 – 1030:10 (1 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 2.619 – 1032 (2 min)
41 ticks

Pullback to 2.589 – 1033 (3 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 2.626 – 1039 (9 min)
37 ticks

Notes: We saw a smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a moderate short move that fell quickly to cross the S2 Mid Pivot then retreat late in the bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled around 2.597 with 15 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it chop around the fill point before settling to hover around 2.583 for 7 sec. Look to exit there with about 14 ticks. Then it reversed 41 ticks to the 13 SMA on the next bar before pulling back 30 ticks it the S2 Mid Pivot on the following bar. Then it reversed 37 ticks in 6 min to the 50/100 SMAs. After that it drifted lower and chopped sideways.

NG 03-15 (1 Min) 2.12.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 152015

2/12/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -165B
Actual: -160B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.784
1st Peak @ 2.736 – 1030:11 (1 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 2.777 – 1042 (12 min)
41 ticks

Final Peak @ 2.679 – 1138 (68 min)
105 ticks

Reversal to 2.717 – 1153 (83 min)
38 ticks

Notes: We saw a smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a moderate short move that fell quickly to cross the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled around 2.760 with about 14 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it drift lower and hover around 2.740 for 7 sec. Look to exit there with about 20 ticks. Then it reversed 41 ticks to the 20 SMA in the next 11 min before falling for a final peak of 57 more ticks in 56 min. Then it reversed 38 ticks in 15 min to the 50 SMA.

NG 03-15 (1 Min) 2.19.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 152015

2/19/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -110B
Actual: -111B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 2.827
1st Peak @ 2.804 – 1030:00 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 2.853 – 1030:32 (1 min)
51 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.786 – 1041 (11 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 2.866 – 1107 (37 min)
80 ticks

Final Peak @ 2.772 – 1208 (98 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 2.804 – 1219 (109 min)
32 ticks

Notes: We saw a near matching draw on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused an indecisive reaction with a quick short move that fell 23 ticks to hit the LOD then promptly reverse for 51 ticks to the 200 SMA. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled around 2.810 with about 7 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen your stop taken 2 sec later with minimal slippage for about a 22 tick loss. Due to the matching results, it settled into a roller coaster routine as it fell from the reversal for a 2nd peak of 18 more ticks to the PP Pivot in 10 min before reversing 80 ticks in 26 min to the R1 Pivot. Then it fell for a final peak of 14 more ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot in an hour before reversing 32 ticks to the 50 SMA in 11 min. These moves presented great opportunities to buy the lows and sell the tops.

NG 04-15 (1 Min) 2.26.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 152015

2/26/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -241B
Actual: -219B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.831
1st Peak @ 2.731 – 1031:23 (2 min)
100 ticks

Reversal to 2.753 – 1034 (4 min)
22 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.723 – 1036 (6 min)
108 ticks

Reversal to 2.747 – 1039 (9 min)
24 ticks

Notes: We saw a smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a large short move that fell quickly to cross the S2 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled around 2.790 with about 30 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it continue to fall until it hovered around 2.745 for 7 sec midway through the :31 bar. Look to exit there with about 45 ticks. After the hovering it reversed about 12 ticks and then fell further, but it is safe and conservative to exit when hovering is observed. After the low was achieved at 2.731, it reversed 22 ticks in the next 4 min before falling for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in 2 min. Then it reversed 24 ticks in 3 min and traded sideways.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 2.12.2015

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 152015

2/12/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: -0.4%
Core Actual: -0.9%
Previous revision: +0.1% to -0.9%
Regular Forecast: -0.4%
Regular Actual: -0.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
Unemployment claims
Forecast: 282K
Actual: 304K
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 146’01
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 146’10 – 0830:05 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 146’07 – 0830:11 (1 min)
)))-3 ticks

)))Pullback to 146’12 – 0830:22 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Reversal to 146’07 – 0833 (3 min)
5 ticks

Final Peak @ 147’06 – 0959 (89 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 146’24 – 1034 (124 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 145’28 (just above the S2 Pivot) / 145’25 (just above the LOD)
Short entries – 146’06 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 146’09 (no SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report was double booked with unemployment claims with all results coming in much weaker than the forecast. This caused a long move of 9 ticks initially in 5 sec. This would have filled both short entries with 1 tick to spare for an average long position at 146’07.5. It reversed for only 3 ticks to allow an exit at 146’07 or 146’08 with 1 tick loss or profit. Look to exit quickly after a small retreat since it is likely to continue to step higher on such biased news. It ran into resistance on the S1 Pivot before climbing for a final peak of 26 more ticks in the next 86 min as it eclipsed the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 14 ticks in 35 min to the 100 SMA / PP Pivot.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 2.12.2015

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 152015

2/12/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Forecast: 282K
Actual: 304K
Core Rtl Sales
Forecast: -0.4%
Actual: -0.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to -0.9%
Rtl Sales
Forecast: -0.4%
Actual: -0.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008355
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008383 – 0830:25 (1 min)
)))28 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008371 – 0830:55 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008379 – 0831:22 (2 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008368 – 0832:43 (3 min)
)))-11 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008390 – 0842 (12 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 0.008368 – 0859 (29 min)
22 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008408 – 0946 (76 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 0.008386 – 1017 (107 min)
22 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008344 (just below the R1 Pivot) / 0.008335 (on the R1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008366 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008375 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: All the news came in very weak to cause a long reaction of 22 ticks in 3 sec and another 6 ticks in the following 22 sec to eclipse the R2 Pivot. This would have filled both of your short entries with 8 ticks to spare and just within the stop. This would have put you short with an average position of 0.008370.5. The initial reversal would fallen to allow an exit with 1 tick loss. If you waited until after the pullback and ensuing reversal, you could have secured 3-5 ticks of profit as it hovered between 0.008368 and 68 for 10 sec. After that it rallied for a 2nd peak for 7 more ticks in 9 min before reversing 22 ticks in 17 min to the 50 SMA. Then it climbed for a slow developing final peak for 18 more ticks in 47 min as it eclipsed the R3 Mid Pivot. After that it reversed 22 ticks in 31 min to the 100 SMA.

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