Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.24.2015

Durable Goods Comments Off

May 012015

4/24/2015 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: -0.2%
Previous revision: -0.2% to -0.6%
Regular Forecast: 0.7%
Regular Actual: 4.0%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to -1.1%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008377 (shift up 3 ticks to 0.008380)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008369 – 0830:04 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008387 – 0830:28 (1 min)
)))18 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008378 – 0833 (3 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008406 – 0940 (70 min)
28 ticks

Pullback to 0.008390 – 1007 (97 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008370 (just below the 100/200 SMAs) / 0.008360 (just below the PP Pivot / LOD)
Short entries – 0.008391 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.008400 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Conflicting report caused an typical whipsaw that fell 11 ticks in 4 sec to cross the 100/200 SMAs then reverse. Your initial anchor point would have setup at 0.008377, but should be shifted up about 3 ticks due to the drift of the market. This would have filled you inner long entry with 1 tick to spare then reversed after a few sec for a total of 18 ticks in 25 sec where it hovered for about 30 sec to allow an easy exit with about 16 ticks. After that it pulled back 9 ticks in 2 min to the 13 SMA before reversing 28 ticks in 67 min to the R2 Pivot. Then it pulled back 16 ticks in 27 min to the R1 Pivot.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 5.1.2015

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 032015

5/1/2015 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 52.1
Actual: 51.5
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE (TRIPWIRE TO CANCEL)
Started @ 0.008344
1st Peak @ 0.008353 – 1000:00 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008343 – 1000:00 (1 min)
-10 ticks

Pullback to 0.008353 – 1000:12 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.008337 – 1002 (2 min)
16 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.008319 – 1039 (39 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.6 pts. We saw a 6 tick short move at 0959:54 (6 sec premature) that should have been a tripwire to disable the strategy. After the release, this caused a 9 tick long spike that started in between the 100 / 200 SMAs and rose to cross the 200 SMA then immediately retreated 10 ticks and pulled back. If left to continue to operate, with JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long entry would have filled at 0.008352 with 5 ticks of slippage (abnormally high), then stopped at 0.008344 with an 8 tick loss with no slippage. After the pullback, it reversed 16 ticks in 1 min to the LOD then continued to fall another 18 ticks in 37 min.

NG 06-15 (1 Min) 4.30.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

May 042015

4/30/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 79B
Actual: 81B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.559
1st Peak @ 2.692 – 1030:47 (1 min)
133 ticks

Reversal to 2.658 – 1033 (3 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.713 – 1035 (5 min)
154 ticks

Reversal to 2.677 – 1038 (8 min)
36 ticks

Final Peak @ 2.732 – 1107 (37 min)
173 ticks

Reversal to 2.707 – 1114 (44 min)
25 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a large long move that rose to cross all 3 major SMAs near the origin, the R2 Pivot and extend the HOD. It spiked 72 ticks immediately to the R1 Pivot, then climbed another 61 ticks in the next 46 sec. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long order would have filled around 2.610 with 41 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it continue to step higher slowly until peaking late in the bar. This would have allowed up to 80 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed for 34 ticks in 2 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 21 more ticks in 2 min. After that it reversed 36 ticks in 3 min before climbing for a final peak of 19 more ticks in 29 min. Then it reversed 25 ticks in 7 min.

CL 06-15 (1 Min) 4.29.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 052015

4/29/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.30M
Actual: 1.91M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.22M
Actual: 1.71M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.17M
Actual: -0.70M
INDECISIVE…UPWARD FAN
Started @ In between 57.31 and 57.20
Premature Spike to 57.19 – 1029:59 (0 min)

1st Peak @ 57.82 – 1030:22 (1 min)
63 ticks

Reversal to 57.60 – 1030:55 (1 min)
22 ticks

2nd Peak @ 58.19 – 1036 (6 min)
100 ticks

Reversal to 57.84 – 1046 (16 min)
35 ticks

Final Peak @ 59.33 – 1250 (140 min)
214 ticks

Reversal to 58.92 – 1308 (158 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Modest gain in inventories when a slightly higher modest gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a negligible draw when a modest gain was expected. This caused a premature short move at 1029:57 for about 17 ticks as the bracket would have established. If the bracket anchor point was 57.29 or higher, you would have been filled short, then stopped as it reversed upon the news release. If your anchor was lower, you would have filled long with higher slippage, but would have been able to profit off of the report . Since the results are variable, we will categorize this as an indecisive report. After the 63 tick spike 1st peak, it reversed 22 ticks in 33 sec before climbing for a 2nd peak of 37 more ticks in 5 min. Then it reversed 35 ticks in 10 min to the 20 SMA before climbing another 114 ticks in about 2 hrs to the R3 Pivot for the final peak. After that it reversed 41 ticks to the 50 SMA.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 5.5.2015

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 072015

5/5/2015 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 56.2
Actual: 57.8
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.008320
Premature spike to 0.008325 – 0959:59 (0 min)
5 ticks

1st Peak @ 0.008309 – 1000:45 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008329 – 1023 (23 min)
20 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.008356 – 1108 (68 min)
47 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 1.6 pts. We saw an unfortunate premature long move of only 5 ticks to the OOD 1 sec before the report release prior to the true spike of 11 ticks short. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long entry would have filled at 0.008323 with no slippage, then you would have seen it fall to hit the 8 tick stop with no slippage. Then it continued to trickle lower for another 6 ticks later in the bar to cross the 200 SMA and S1 Pivot. After that it reversed 20 ticks in 22 min to cross the OOD / S1 Mid Pivot, then another 27 ticks in 45 min to cross the R1 Pivot.

NG 06-15 (1 Min) 5.7.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

May 112015

5/7/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 75B
Actual: 76B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.788
1st Peak @ 2.741 – 1030:07 (1 min)
47 ticks

Reversal to 2.778 – 1032 (2 min)
37 ticks

Pullback to 2.743 – 1041 (11 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 2.764 – 1044 (14 min)
21 ticks

Pullback to 2.741 – 1051 (21 min)
23 ticks

Notes: We saw a near matching gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a moderate short move that fell to reach the S1 Pivot, and extend the LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled around 2.765 with 13 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it fall and chop above the S1 Pivot. Look to exit there with about 18 ticks. After that it reversed 37 ticks in 1 min to nearly reach the PP Pivot before pulling back 35 ticks for a near double bottom in 9 min. Then it reversed 21 ticks in 3 min to the S1 Mid Pivot before pulling back 23 ticks to the LOD in 7 min. After that it trended lower for the next few hours.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 5.7.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 122015

5/7/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 277K
Actual: 265K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008392
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008388 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-4 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008392 – 0830:04 (1 min)
)))4 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008381 – 0833 (3 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008386 – 0835 (5 min)
5 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008379 – 0850 (20 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.008386 – 0902 (32 min)
7 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008383 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008373 (in between the OOD / S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008400 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.008412 (just below the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast with 12k offset. This caused a quick short spike of only 4 ticks in 1 sec that crossed the R1 Mid Pivot. This would have fallen short of the inner long entry at 0.008383 by 5 ticks and the move was too tame, so cancel the order. It chopped between the origin and R1 Mid Pivot for 23 sec before heading lower 7 ticks for a 2nd peak in 2 min. Then it reversed 5 ticks in 2 min before falling for a final peak of 2 more ticks in 15 min to reach the PP Pivot. Then it reversed 7 ticks in 12 min to the 50 SMA and traded sideways.

CL 06-15 (1 Min) 5.6.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 132015

5/6/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.50M
Actual: -3.88M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.87M
Actual: 0.40M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.12M
Actual: 1.50M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 62.04
1st Peak @ 62.56 – 1030:22 (1 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 62.31 – 1030:40 (1 min)
25 ticks

Double Top @ 62.58 – 1033 (3 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 61.81 – 1041 (11 min)
77 ticks

Pullback to 62.11 – 1052 (22 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 60.63 – 1142 (72 min)
148 ticks

Notes: First time since early January that the crude figures saw a draw. Moderate draw in inventories when a modest gain was expected, while gasoline saw a lesser negligible gain when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a modest gain when a negligible draw was expected. This caused a long spike of 52 ticks with all but 8 ticks coming immediately after crossing the R3 Pivot. Then it achieved the peak in 21 more sec. After that it reversed with the resistance of the R3 Pivot overcoming the big draw to fall 25 ticks in 18 sec to the R3 Pivot before climbing for a double top 2 min later. Then it reversed 77 ticks in 8 min to the 200 SMA. After that it pulled back 30 ticks in 11 min to the old HOD position before reversing 148 ticks in 50 min to the LOD.

ES 06-15 (1 Min) 5.8.2015

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

May 132015

5/8/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 228K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 223K
Previous Revision: -41K to 85K
Rate Forecast: 5.4%
Rate Actual: 5.4%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 2088.50 (on the OOD)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 2100.75 – 0830:39 (1 min)
)))49 ticks

)))Reversal to 2094.25 – 0831:41 (2 min)
)))26 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 2106.75 – 0844 (14 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 2101.25 – 0850 (20 min)
22 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 2083.00 (just below the LOD) / 2078.50 (in between the PP and S1 Mid Pivots)
Short entries – 2095.25 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) / 2099.00 (just below the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Matching report with 5K less jobs added than the forecast, a large downward revision to the previous report along with a match in the U-3 rate. We saw a slow developing long spike that climbed 22 ticks in 19 sec. Due to the gradual approach and inability to breach the inner tier, cancel the order. It climbed another 27 ticks in the next 20 sec to cross the R2 Pivot before reversing 26 ticks in 1 min as it crossed the R2 Mid pivot. Then it climbed for a final peak of 24 more ticks in 12 min before reversing 22 ticks in 6 min. As this was a “goldilocks” report for the market, it caused a longer term sustained rally into the session close.

ZC 12-14 (1 Min) 9.11.2014

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Sep 282014

9/11/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 341.75
1st Peak @ 337.50 – 1200:53 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 340.75 – 1204 (4 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 335.75 – 1223 (23 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 338.00 – 1229 (29 min)
9 ticks

Continued Reversal to 341.75 – 1415 (135 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a short move of 17 ticks that initially struggled with the LOD then tamely fell to cross the S3 Pivot toward the end of the :01 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 340.50 with no slippage, then seen it keep trickling lower. Look to exit when it hovered at the S3 Pivot for about 20 sec at the end of the :01 bar and beginning of the :02 bar. After the peak it reversed 13 ticks to the old LOD location and 13 SMA, then it fell for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks after 20 min to reach the S4 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 9 ticks in 6 min to the S3 Pivot and another 15 ticks back to the origin in the next 100 min as the session closed.

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