Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 8.19.2015

CPI Comments Off

Sep 122015

Caption for 8/19:
8/19/2015 Core CPI (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.008047
1st Peak @ 0.008085 – 0830:01 (1 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 0.008053 – 0830:02 (1 min)
32 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.008038 – 0838 (8 min)
47 ticks

Notes: The core reading fell short of the forecast and the broader reading also missed the forecast. This caused a bizarre large unsustainable spike of 38 ticks to the R4 Mid Pivot that immediately collapsed. 26 tick large short spike that started on the 200 SMA and fell to immediately cross the OOD, then trickle lower another 13 ticks in 30 sec. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 0.008267 with 3 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it fall and hover initially at 0.008249 to allow 18 ticks to be captured. After a minimal reversal, and with no support barrier near, it continued to fall for a final peak of 19 more ticks in 9 min. Then it reversed 8 ticks in 4 min and traded sideways.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 8.25.2015

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Sep 122015

8/25/2015 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 92.8
Actual: 101.5
Previous revision: +0.1 to 91.0
SPIKE / REVERSE – TRIPWIRE TO CANCEL
Started @ 0.008355
1st Peak @ 0.008366 – 1000:38 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008355 – 1000:58 (1 min)
11 ticks

Pullback to 0.008364 – 1002 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008343 – 1017 (17 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a 8.7 point delta with a negligible upward revision to the previous reading. We saw a premature whipsaw short 43 sec before the release to be a tripwire to cancel the order. Then The reaction caused a long move of 11 ticks that started just below the 50 SMA and rose to cross the 13 /20 SMAs in 38 sec then reversed later in the bar back to the origin. Then it pulled back 9 ticks in 1 min before reversing 21 ticks in 15 min to the 200 SMA.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 8.26.2015

Durable Goods Comments Off

Sep 122015

8/26/2015 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual: 0.6%
Previous revision: -0.2% to 0.6%
Regular Forecast: -0.4%
Regular Actual: 2.0%
Previous Revision: +0.7% to 4.1%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008356
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008345 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008354 – 0830:04 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008341 – 0830:37 (1 min)
)))13 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.008357 – 0850 (20 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008346 (just below the LOD) / 0.008332 (just above the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008366 (just above the 100 SMA / R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008378 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: The core reading mildly exceeded the forecast with a modest bearish revision while the regular reading exceeded the forecast with a moderate bullish revision. With most of the news bullish, this caused a short move of 11 ticks in 2 sec that quickly retreated. This would have filled your inner long tier at 0.008346 then allowed about 4-6 ticks to be captured after a quick reversal and brief hovering. If you did not act quickly in this case, you would have seen the profit ebb away after 30 sec then allow an exit near breakeven in the next 4 min. After that it reversed 16 ticks in the next 19 min to the 50 SMA / PP Pivot.

ES 09-15 (1 Min) 8.7.2015

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Sep 132015

8/7/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 222K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 215K
Previous Revision: +8K to 231K
Rate Forecast: 5.3%
Rate Actual: 5.3%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 2075.75 (on the 50 SMA)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 2078.00 – 0830:05 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 2073.50 – 0830:24 (1 min)
)))-18 ticks

)))Pullback to 2076.00 – 0831:02 (2 min)
)))10 ticks

)))Reversal to 2072.00 – 0832:03 (3 min)
)))-16 ticks

)))Pullback to 2075.50 – 0832:48 (3 min)
)))14 ticks
————
Reversal to 2071.25 – 0838 (8 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2082.75 – 0901 (31 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 2071.00 – 0936 (66 min)
47 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 2070.75 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 2066.50 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 2080.50 (just above the OOD) / 2085.75 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Mildly weak report with 7K less jobs added than the forecast, a modest upward revision to the previous report along with no change in the U-3 rate. This caused a small long spike of 9 ticks in 5 sec that crossed the 200 SMA before reversing 18 ticks in 20 sec to the LOD. This was too small be more than half to reach the inner short tier, so cancel the order with no fill. It continued to swing up and down several times with the cycle period growing until in reversed in the 8th min to extend the LOD, then climbed for a 2nd peak of 19 more ticks to the PP Pivot in 23 min. Then it reversed 47 ticks in 35 min to the LOD again.

ES 09-15 (1 Min) 9.4.2015

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Sep 132015

9/4/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 215K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 173K
Previous Revision: +30K to 231K
Rate Forecast: 5.2%
Rate Actual: 5.1%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 1930.75 – shift down 6 ticks to 1929.25 (on the 50 SMA)
————
Trap Trade:
)))Whipsaw between 1926.50 and 1932.00 – 0830:12 (1 min)
22 tick span (+11 / -11 ticks)

)))1st Peak @ 1923.75 – 0830:28 (1 min)
)))-22 ticks

)))Reversal to 1936.00 – 0832:51 (3 min)
)))49 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1921.00 – 0839 (9 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 1928.50 – 0846 (16 min)
30 ticks

Final Peak @ 1910.50 – 0854 (24 min)
75 ticks

Reversal to 1930.25 – 0944 (74 min)
79 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1924.25 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1919.25 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 1934.50 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 1939.50 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Mixed report with 42K less jobs added than the forecast, a healthy upward revision to the previous report along with a 0.1% improvement in the U-3 rate attributed to more people departing the labor force. This caused an immediate whipsaw spanning 22 ticks. Then it fell for the 1st peak of 22 ticks in 28 sec before reversing. This would have filled the shifted inner long entry perfectly then reversed to allow up to 45+ ticks to be captured in about 2.5 min. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks in 6 min as it eclipsed the S2 Pivot / LOD before reversing 30 ticks in 7 min to the 3 Major SMAs and S2 Mid Pivot. After that it fell for a final peak of 42 more ticks in 8 min before reversing 79 ticks in 50 min.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 8.13.2015

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Sep 142015

8/13/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.4%
Previous revision: +0.5% to 0.4%
Regular Forecast: 0.6%
Regular Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 0.0%
SPIKE/ REVERSE…DULL EXIT
Started @ 158’06
1st Peak @ 158’15 – 0830:03 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 158’00 – 0830:30 (1 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 158’06 – 0831:37 (2 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 157’24 – 0836 (6 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report was released concurrently with Import Prices. All the news was matching or nearly matching leaving the previous bullish revisions the only driver on the news to cause choppy moves. This caused a 9 tick long spike that started on the OOD / S1 Pivot and climbed then quickly fell back to the fill point. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 158’09 with no slippage. This is where a profit target would have been prudent as a setting of 5 or less would have filled. Otherwise, recognize the quick reversal and matching conditions and manually exit near breakeven up for 8 sec after the report. Then it slowly trickled lower for a reversal of 15 ticks in 30 sec to the 200 SMA. After that it pulled back 6 ticks in 1 min to the OOD / S1 Pivot before reversing 14 ticks in 4 min to the S2 Pivot. Then it continued to chop with 8-10 tick swings every 5 min or so for the next hour.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 8.27.2015

Prelim GDP Comments Off

Sep 142015

8/27/2015 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 3.2%
Actual: 3.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 156’11
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 155’31 – 0830:09 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Reversal to 156’04 – 0830:18 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Pullback to 155’28 – 0831:45 (2 min)
)))8 ticks
————
Reversal to 156’12 – 0836 (6 min)
16 ticks

Final Peak @ 155’16 – 0911 (41 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 156’19 – 1004 (94 min)
35 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 156’07 (just below the 50 SMA)/ 156’03 (on the OOD)
Short entries – 156’16 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 156’19 (in between the 200 SMA / PP Pivot)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.5%, causing a large short spike of 12 ticks in 9 sec that started on the 100 SMA and fell to cross the S1 Mid Pivot before reversing. This would have filled the inner and outer long entries making an average long position of 156’05. As it reversed, it climbed only 5 ticks and hovered 9 for 9 sec to allow an exit with 1-2 ticks loss for a total loss of 2-4 ticks. After that it continued to fall for 8 ticks to the LOD before reversing 16 ticks in 4 min to the 100 SMA. Then it fell for a final peak of 13 more ticks in 35 min as it extended the LOD before reversing 35 ticks in 53 min.in 34 sec then hovered at 155’06 (the inner short tier) to allow 21 total ticks to be captured. After that it pulled back 6 ticks in 1 min before reversing 15 ticks in 33 min. Then it pulled back 8 ticks in 9 min to the 50 SMA.

ES 12-15 (1 Min) 10.2.2015

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Dec 072015

ES 12-15 (1 Min) 10_2_2015 ES 12-15 (Second) 10_2_2015

10/2/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 201K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 142K
Previous Revision: -37K to 136K
Rate Forecast: 5.1%
Rate Actual: 5.1%
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER STOPPED
Anchor Point @ 1926.75
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1901.50 – 0831:13 (2 min)
)))-101 ticks

)))Reversal to 1909.00 – 0831:36 (2 min)
)))30 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 1883.00 – 0952 (82 min)
175 ticks

Reversal to 1905.75 – 1109 (159 min)
91 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1921.75 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1916.75 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot / OOD)
Short entries – 1931.50 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot) / 1936.50 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 1921.75 and 1916.75 (both long tiers)
Best Initial Exit: 1916.75 – 20 tick loss (50 tick loss if stopped)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1925.00 (just above the SMAs)

Notes: Strongly disappointing report caused a huge selloff. Still the support of the OOD would have slowed the fall to allow an exit at the outer tier fill after 20 seconds of hovering. It continued to step lower until 82 min after the report, then reversed all the way into the session close.

ES 12-15 (1 Min) 11.6.2015

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Dec 072015

ES 12-15 (1 Min) 11_6_2015

11/6/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 181K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 271K
Previous Revision: -5K to 137K
Rate Forecast: 5.0%
Rate Actual: 5.0%
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 2095.25 – shift 4 ticks lower to 2094.25
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 2082.00 – 0831:10 (2 min)
)))-49 ticks

)))Reversal to 2099.00 – 0833:48 (4 min)
)))68 ticks
————
Pullback to 2082.75 – 0858 (28 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 2096.25 – 0937 (67 min)
54 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2077.50 – 1007 (97 min)
67 ticks

Reversal to 2091.50 – 1047 (137 min)
56 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 2088.75 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 2084.00 (just below the S1Pivot)
Short entries – 2099.25 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot / HOD) / 2104.00 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 2088.75 and 2084.00 (both long tiers)
Best Initial Exit: 2098.75 – 99 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2094.25 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Nice outer tier trap trade good for up to nearly 100 ticks with patience. It continued to cycle allowing several other trades for the next 2.5 hrs.

ES 12-15 (1 Min) 12.4.2015

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Dec 072015

ES 12-15 (1 Min) 12_4_2015 ES 12-15 (Second) 12_4_2015

12/4/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 201K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 211K
Previous Revision: +27K to 298K
Rate Forecast: 5.0%
Rate Actual: 5.0%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 2055.25
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 2060.75 – 0830:10 (1 min)
)))22 ticks

)))Reversal to 2055.75 – 0830:17 (1 min)
)))-20 ticks

)))Pullback to 2062.00 – 0830:57 (1 min)
)))25 ticks

)))Reversal to 2055.50 – 0832:18 (3 min)
)))26 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 2062.75 – 0840 (10 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 2046.75 – 0910 (40 min)
64 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 2050.50 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 2045.25 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 2060.50 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 2065.50 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: 2060.50 (inner short tier)
Best Initial Exit: 2056.00 – 18 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2053.50 (just above the OOD) – move higher

Notes: Good inner tier trade. The HOD held as resistance after being tested several times. That made for a good setup for a reversal entry short at 0840. After the reversal, the market rallied into the session close.

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