Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 8.8.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Dec 282013

8/8/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 336K
Actual: 333K
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.010376
1st Peak @ 0.010368 – 0831 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.010383 – 0831 (1 min)
15 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.010414 – 0857 (27 min)
46 ticks

Notes: Report came in nearly matching, but slightly better than the forecast by 3k jobs, causing an initial short spike of 8 ticks that was shortly sustained. It crossed only the OOD and no other discernable support barrier. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 0.010372 with no slippage then only shown 4 ticks of profit which would have vanished after 11 sec. This is where you need to exit quickly between breakeven and 2-3 ticks after recognition of the scenario. In any event, do not be asleep at the switch and eat a 10 tick loss unnecessarily. It would also be advisable to reverse the trade on the short move expecting a reversal. It reversed 15 ticks in the latter part of the :31 bar, and continued for an extended reversal of 46 ticks in the next 25 min, crossing the HOD and the R1 Pivot.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 8.1.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Dec 282013

8/1/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 346K
Actual: 326K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010137
1st Peak @ 0.010114 – 0833 (3 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.010135 – 0839 (9 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010105 – 0908 (38 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.010122 – 0924 (54 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast by 20k jobs, causing a short spike of 23 ticks. It crossed all 3 major SMAs and eventually reached the S2 Pivot while extending the LOD . With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 0.010128 with 5 ticks of slippage. With the large offset, be patient and look to exit at the LOD around 0.010118 for 10 ticks on the :32 bar. After reaching the S2 Pivot, it reversed for 21 ticks in the next 6 min, with an unsustainable wick poking through all3 major SMAs on the :39 bar. Then it chopped sideways below the SMAs before falling for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks 30 min later. Then it reversed for 17 ticks in the next 16 min back to the 50 SMA.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 8.13.2013

Retail Sales Comments Off

Dec 262013

8/13/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.5%
Previous revision: +0.1% to 0.1%
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.6%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 133’01
1st Peak @ 133’03 – 0831 (1 min)
2 ticks

Reversal to 132’29 – 0831 (1 min)
-6 ticks

Extended Reversal to 132’22 – 0834 (4 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report was mostly matching with a 0.1% better than expected reading on the core, and mild upward revisions on previous reports. This caused a muted reaction that did not stray more than 4 ticks from the origin as it also had to contend with the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 133’03 with no slippage, then stopped out with the opposite entry at 129’31 for -4 ticks. After the :31 bar, it stalled before falling again on the :33 bar for another 9 ticks as it extended the LOD. Then it pulled back and traded sideways between the LOD and S3 Mid Pivot for over an hour until it was able to extend the LOD a few more ticks.

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 10.25.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

Dec 262013

10/25/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: -0.1%
Previous revision: -0.3% to -0.4%
Regular Forecast: 1.7%
Regular Actual: 3.7%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.2%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.010273
1st peak @ 0.010260 – 0831 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.010283 – 0836 (6 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report came in mixed and offsetting to bewilder the market. This caused a 13 tick unsustainable short spike that peaked on the :31 bar , crossing the S1 Pivot and 50 SMA while extending the LOD, leaving 14 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.010267 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak immediately and back off to hover around the fill point. Given the conflicting results and typical behavior of this report, look to exit near breakeven +/- 2 ticks. After the 1st peak, it continued reversing for the next 5 min to gain another 8 ticks, crossing the 100 SMA, R1 Mid Pivot, and reaching the 200 SMA. Then it fell again in a failed attempt at a 2nd peak that crossed the S1 Mid Pivot.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 8.26.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

Dec 262013

8/26/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: -0.6%
Previous revision: -0.1% to -0.1%
Regular Forecast: -3.0%
Regular Actual: -7.3%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to 3.9%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010152
1st peak @ 0.010175 – 0831 (1 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010178 – 0849 (19 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.010163 – 0901 (31 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report came in overall bearish and disappointed the market. This caused a 30 tick long spike that peaked on the :31 bar, crossing the R1 Pivot and extending the HOD, leaving 9 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 0.010162 with 6 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak immediately and start chopping while falling. A programmed target of 10 ticks would have filled, or if you are looking for an exit after the initial volatility, place a target above the R1 Pivot at about 0.010170 for 8 ticks which would have filled on the :32 bar. After the 1st peak, it continued to oscillate between the R1 Pivot and the HOD until it eventually snagged 3 more ticks after 18 min. When you see a trend like this with little gain on a 2nd peak after repeated attempts over 20 min, it is a good opportunity to trade the reversal as divergence is building. After the 2nd peak, it fell for 15 ticks in 12 min to nearly reach the 50 SMA. After that, it slowly fell for the next few hours as the influence of the news wore off.

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 9.25.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

Dec 262013

9/25/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 1.1%
Core Actual: -0.1%
Previous revision: -0.2% to -0.8%
Regular Forecast: 0.0%
Regular Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to -7.4%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.010153
1st peak @ 0.010166 – 0831 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.010150 – 0831 (1 min)
-16 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.010128 – 0912 (42 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Report came in mostly bearish and disappointed the market with a near match on the regular reading. This caused an unsustainable 13 tick long spike that peaked on the :31 bar, then reversed for 16 ticks immediately as an indecisive reaction. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 0.010159 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak and reverse to hit the stop loss for a 6 tick loss with 1 tick of slippage. After 2 cycles from the extremes of the bar, it fell into a long slow developing reversal for another 22 ticks in the next 40 min, crossing the PP Pivot.

CL 01-14 (1 Min) 12.11.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Dec 262013

12/11/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -2.95M
Actual: -10.59M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.79M
Actual: 6.72M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.94M
Actual: 4.54M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 97.82
1st Peak @ 98.25 – 1031 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 97.98 – 1032 (2 min)
27 ticks

2nd Peak @ 98.34 – 1037 (7 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 97.60 – 1137 (67 min)
74 ticks

Notes: Very large draw in inventories when a moderate draw was expected, while gasoline and distillates both saw large gains when modest gains were expected. These numbers indicate an excessive refinery capacity that produced far more products than normal. With the results being divergent, the large draw on the crude won the influence battle initially with a 43 tick long spike that crossed all 3 major SMAs, and the PP Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 97.95 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it hit the 100 SMA and hover for a few sec, fall to the 50 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot, then rally again to challenge the 200 SMA and the PP Pivot as the bar expired. If you look back at the activity between 0930 and 1000, you will see the LOD at 97.89, so use that area as a support barrier to move the stop up to about 97.85 (-10 ticks), then place a profit target at 98.22 on the PP Pivot. This would have easily filled for about 25 or so ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 27 ticks on the next bar, back to the S1 Mid Pivot before climbing for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks in the next 5 min. Then it chopped lower as it encountered each level of support for 74 ticks in the next hour. as it reached the S1 Pivot and extended the LOD a handful of ticks.

CL 01-14 (1 Min) 12.4.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Dec 262013

12/4/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -0.50M
Actual: -5.59M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.52M
Actual: 1.83M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.77M
Actual: 2.65M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 96.96
1st Peak @ 96.54 – 1031 (1 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 97.03 – 1049 (19 min)
49 ticks

2nd Peak @ 96.30 – 1113 (43 min)
66 ticks

Reversal to 97.50 – 1221 (111 min)
120 ticks

Notes: Healthy draw in inventories when a negligible draw was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when a slightly larger gain was expected, and distillates saw a moderate gain when a modest draw was expected. With the results being divergent, the product gains won the influence battle initially with a 42 tick short decisive short spike that crossed the 100/50 SMAs, the R1 Mid Pivot, and extended the LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 96.84 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it ratchet lower until it hit 96.54 and pulled back. With the activity in the last hour seeing a support barrier at the LOD hold 3 times, look to exit around 96.60 with about 20-25 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 49 ticks in the next 18 min, crossing all 3 SMAs and peaking just above the 200 SMA. Then it fell again for a 2nd peak of 24 more ticks in the next 24 min, chopping lower as it extended the LOD again. Finally, the strong draw in the crude caused a large reversal in the next hour or so for 120 ticks as it sought out the HOD.

ZC 03-14 (1 Min) 12.10.2013

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Dec 242013

12/10/2013 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE /REVERSE
Started @ 438.25
1st Peak @ 440.75 – 1200:08 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 435.75 – 1200:38 (1 min)
-20 ticks

Pullback to 440.50 – 1201:19 (2 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 430.75 – 1217 (17 min)
39 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a muted and indecisive reaction with a long spike of only 10 ticks on the :01 bar that started on the R1 Mid Pivot then crossed the HOD and R1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 440.00 with 2 ticks of slippage. After the fill, it rose only 3 more ticks and hovered for about 5 sec before backing off and falling. As the behavior of this report is quite predictable, look to exit or reverse the trade in the first few seconds near breakeven. Then it fell 20 ticks to cross all 3 SMAs, the PP Pivot, and the origin in the next 30 sec. The reversal does not usually go beyond the origin, so this would represent a good buying opportunity. Then it pulled back to nearly execute a double top at 440.50 on the :02 bar before falling for a much larger reversal of 39 ticks in 17 min to nearly reach the S2 Pivot. I managed to place a long order at the origin on the R1 Mid Pivot when it initially reversed, then rode out the heat and exited on the R1 Pivot when it attempted the double top for 8 ticks.

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 12.5.2013

Factory Orders Comments Off

Dec 212013

12/5/2013 Monthly Factory Orders (1000 EST)
Forecast: -0.9%
Actual: -0.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 1.8%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 0.009799
1st Peak @ 0.009794 – 1001 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.009806 – 1003 (3 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast with a weak reading and a small upward revision to the previous report. This caused a dull reaction that fell 5 ticks, crashing into the 100/200 SMAs and the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.009796 with no slippage. Due to the strong support barrier and the matching results, look to exit within 1 tick of break even. As long as you exited before the :03 bar reversed for 12 ticks, you would have been fine. After the reversal, it fell again, but not likely due to the news with a matching report.

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