Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2.1.2016

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Feb 212016

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2_1_2016

2/1/2016 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 48.6
Actual: 48.2
Previous revision: n/a
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 0.008283
1st Peak @ 0.008289 – 1000:42 (1 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008294 – 1003 (3 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008275 – 1014 (14 min)
19 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Only moved 2 ticks away from the origin until 22 sec after the release, so cancel the order on the dull move. It eventually gained 6 ticks then another 5 ticks on a 2nd peak after 3 min before reversing as the overall long trend found resistance after crossing the R1 Pivot with the R2 Mid Pivot looming above.

ZC 03-16 (1 Min) 1.12.2016

Grain Stocks, WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Jan 152016

ZC 03-16 (1 Min) 1_12_2016

1/12/2016 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 349.75
1st Peak @ 363.75 – 1201:44 (2 min)
56 ticks

Reversal to 353.00 – 1204 (4 min)
43 ticks

Pullback to 359.50 – 1207 (7 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 356.00 – 1209 (9 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 359.75 – 1217 (86 min)
50 ticks

Expected Fill: 351.00 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 363.50 – 50 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 360.50 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Slow developing but stable long spike. It spent the first 50 sec unable to breach the R1 Pivot. This was unusual for a January Grain stocks. But then it climbed about 40 ticks in 55 sec to eclipse the R3 Pivot. With the big reversal, a long entry on or after the bounce off of the 13 SMA would have been prudent.

CL 03-14 (1 Min) 2.12.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 012014

2/12/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 2.65M
Actual: 3.27M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.05M
Actual: -1.85M
Distillates
Forecast: -2.28M
Actual: -0.73M
DULL REACTION…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 101.20
1st Peak @ 101.03 – 1031 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 101.21 – 1032 (2 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 100.85 – 1032 (2 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 101.37 – 1046 (16 min)
52 ticks

Final Peak @ 100.64 – 1106 (36 min)
56 ticks

Reversal to 100.92 – 1114 (44 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in inventories when a lesser gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a negligible draw was expected and distillates saw a modest draw when a moderate draw was expected. The first time in a month that the distillate inventory beat the forecast caused a muted reaction initially that ended up in a bearish move overall. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would not have seen an impulse to fill either side of the bracket until 36 sec into the :31 bar, so you should have cancelled the order. It eventually fell for 17 ticks as it finally broke through the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 18 ticks before falling for 35 ticks to cross the 200 SMA. Then it reversed for 52 ticks to reach the HOD before it fell for a final peak of 56 ticks, crossing the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed for 28 ticks in 8 min and chopped sideways before trending lower.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2.13.2014

Retail Sales Comments Off

Mar 012014

Caption for 2/13:
2/13/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: 0.0%
Previous revision: -0.4% to 0.3%
Regular Forecast: 0.0%
Regular Actual: -0.4%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to -0.1%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 132’27 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
Dull Reaction with only 2 ticks span of movement on the :31 bar
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 132’24/23 (in the middle of SMAs & just below R2 Mid Pivot) / 132’19 (on R1 Pivot)
Short entries – 132’31 (on the R2 Pivot ) / 133’03 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report was double booked with unemployment claims, so we used the Trap Trade approach. Surprising, all readings were bearish, but the ZB failed to launch until the :32 bar. With no impulse to fill either side of the Trap bracket, cancel the order after 20 sec. The reaction came late for no apparent reason, but resulted in a 5 tick upward spike on the :32 bar, eclipsing the R2 Pivot, followed by a 4 tick reversal to the 13 SMA on the :36 bar. Then it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks on the :37 bar. After that it reversed for 7 ticks, crossing the 50 SMA about 30 min later.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.13.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 012014

2/13/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 331K
Actual: 339K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009817 (last price and on the R3 Mid Pivot)
————
Trap Trade:
Dull Reaction with only 12 ticks span of movement on the :31 bar
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009807 (below the 200 SMA) / 0.009798 (just below the R2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009828 (no SMA/Pivot near) / 0.009836 (just above the R3 Pivot)

Notes: Report was double booked with retail sales, so we used a slightly larger 1st tier of 10-12 ticks. Surprising, all readings were bearish, but the 6J failed to launch until the :32 bar with only 7 tick movement from the anchor point. With no impulse to fill either side of the Trap bracket, cancel the order after 20 sec. The reaction came late for no apparent reason, but resulted in a 23 tick upward spike on the :32 bar, nearly reaching the R3 Pivot. Then it reversed for 23 ticks in the next 30 min back to the 100 SMA. Then it rebounded long, but was only able to achieve 2 ticks less than the 1st peak, before falling again.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.14.2014

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Mar 022014

2/14/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EST)
Forecast: 80.6
Actual: 81.2
TRAP TRADE (DULL – No Fill)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009827 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009820 – 0955:47 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009824 – 0956:40 (2 min)
)))4 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009818 – 0958 (3 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009827 – 1005 (10 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009819 (match the low of 0938 bar) / 0.009812 (match the low of 0847)
Short entries – 0.009836 (on the R2 Mid Pivot ) / 0.009843 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in modestly higher than the forecast by 0.6 points causing a tame short impulse on the 6J for only 7 ticks as it crossed all 3 major SMAs. That would have fallen short of the inner long order, so cancel the order. It toyed with the 100/200 SMA on the :57 bar, then fell for 2 more ticks to match the 0938 low before reversing 9 ticks in the next 7 min. Overall dull report with little offset from the forecast.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2.20.2014

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Mar 092014

2/20/2014 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EST)
Forecast: 9.2
Actual: -6.3
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 132’30
1st Peak @ 133’07 – 1001 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 132’29 – 1005 (5 min)
10 ticks

Extended Reversal to 132’15 – 1043 (43 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Report fell well short of the forecast with a delta of 15.5 pts, causing a long spike on the ZB that started in between the 100 and 200 SMAs, crossed the 200 SMA and nearly reached the PP Pivot before retreating. With JOBB, your order would have filled long at about 133’00 with no slippage then immediately shot up to the PP Pivot and hovered. As it hovered for about 18 sec between 133’04 and 133’07, it would have given ample opportunity to exit with 4-6 ticks. Unfortunately the move was not sustained and retreated on the back end of the :01 bar. It reversed for 10 ticks in 4 min, pulled back briefly to hit the 200 SMA, then fell further for another 14 ticks in the next 38 min, crossing the S1 Pivot.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.20.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 092014

2/20/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 335K
Actual: 336K
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 0.009803 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))Dull Reaction with only 6 ticks span of movement on the :31 bar
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009795 (match the low of the 0807 bar) / 0.009785 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009812 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.009822 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report was double booked with Core and regular CPI, but all reports matched the forecast. This caused a dull reaction of only 4 ticks departure from the anchor point. With no impulse to fill either side of the Trap bracket, cancel the order after 20 sec. After the tame :31 bar, it fell about 12 ticks in the next 5 min, then rebounded to the R1 Mid Pivot/50 SMA before falling again to the OOD about 35 min after the report.

CL 04-14 (1 Min) 2.20.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 092014

2/20/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 2.01M
Actual: 0.97M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.54M
Actual: 0.31M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.89M
Actual: -0.34M
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 102.74
1st Peak @ 102.82 – 1031 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 102.58 – 1032 (2 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Modest gain in inventories when a greater gain was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a negligible draw was expected and distillates saw a negligible draw when a modest draw was expected. This news seemed to be mostly balanced to even the scales between the bulls and the bears to cause a dull reaction. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would not have seen an impulse to fill either side of the bracket until 19 sec into the :31 bar, so you should have cancelled the order. It eventually fell for 16 ticks from the origin as it crossed the 200 SMA. Then it transitioned into large swings: a rally of 37 ticks in 9 min, then a drop of 55 ticks in 5 min, then a rally of 64 ticks in 14 min, before settling down to trade in the range it was before the news.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.25.2014

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Mar 112014

2/25/2014 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 80.2
Actual: 78.1
Previous revision: -1.3 to 79.4
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.009794
1st Peak @ 0.009808 – 1001 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.009784 – 1026 (26 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a small margin of 2.1 points. This caused a 14 tick long spike on the :01 bar that was tame but unsustained, as it started on the R3 Pivot after a 23 tick rally in the last 25 min and crossed the R4 Mid Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.009799 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it hit 0.009808 before chopping between 0.009797 and 0.009805 up to 53 sec into the :01 bar. Look to exit with 5-6 ticks just above the R4 Mid Pivot. Due to the overbought condition and the strong resistance of the R4 Mid Pivot, it reversed quickly and steadily over the next 25 min, crossing the 50 SMA and the R3 Mid Pivot for 24 ticks. Then it chopped sideways for the better part of an hour.

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