Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.27.2014

Durable Goods Comments Off

Mar 112014

2/27/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: -0.1%
Core Actual: 1.1%
Previous revision: +0.3% to -1.3%
Regular Forecast: -0.7%
Regular Actual: -1.0%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to -4.2%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009817 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009806 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009812 – 0831:59 (2 min)
)))6 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 0.009791 – 0845 (15 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.009799 – 0857 (27 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009806 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009799 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009829 (just below the HOD) / 0.009837 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in mixed with the core reading exceeding the forecast by 1.2%, while the regular reading fell short of the forecast by 0.3% and weekly unemployment claims came in 15k worse than expected. With the mixed news, the bullish news won the influence battle to cause an 11 ticks short move that peaked not near any barrier. With the Trap Trade, you would have filled long at 0.009806, then seen it only retreat 6 ticks as it hovered tamely between the fill point and 6 ticks of profit. Look to exit with 4-5 ticks after 2 min when it appears to be unable to go higher. It is odd that the claims and regular reading did not cause a larger reversal, but we aware of what the market is giving you. After about 4 min of hovering, it fell for a 2nd peak of 15 more ticks, crossing the R2 Mid Pivot in the next 10 min. Then it reversed for 8 ticks, crossing the 13/20 SMAs.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 2.28.2014

Prelim GDP Comments Off

Mar 122014

2/28/2014 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0830 EST)
Forecast: 2.6%
Actual: 2.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 132’27
1st Peak@ 132’24 – 0831 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 132’28 – 0831 (1 min)
4 ticks

2nd peak @ 132’23 – 0833 (3 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 133’00 – 0848 (18 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.2%, causing a dull reaction for a short move of only 3 ticks followed by a 4 tick reversal in 4 sec. Contributing to the dull reaction, the 200 SMA ,100 SMA, and S2 Mid Pivot were all within 1 tick of the origin. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 132’25 with no slippage, then you would have seen it hover between Breakeven and 2 ticks in the red for most of the :31 bar. Look to exit at BE or with a 1 tick loss on the dull reaction. After the 1st peak, it was able to fall 1 more tick for a minor 2nd peak on the :33 bar to the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed for 9 ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot about 15 min later.

CL 04-14 (1 Min) 2.26.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 122014

2/26/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 1.24M
Actual: 0.07M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.99M
Actual: -2.81M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.23M
Actual: 0.34M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 102.37
1st Peak @ 102.70 – 1031 (1 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 102.35 – 1032 (2 min)
35 ticks

2nd Peak @ 102.87 – 1038 (8 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 102.37 – 1058 (28 min)
50 ticks

Notes: Negligible gain in inventories when a greater gain was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a modest draw was expected. The mixed news caused a 33 tick long spike on the :31 bar that was shortly sustained as it crossed the R2 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 102.51 with 4 ticks of slippage, then seen it pop up about 20 ticks and quickly retreat back to your fill point to hover. This is where a preselected profit target for 10-15 ticks would have been very prudent. Otherwise the best exit would have been with about 3-5 ticks later in the bar. After the :31 bar, the reversal took it down to the origin for 35 ticks as the distillate gain weighed in. Then it rallied for a 2nd peak of 50 ticks in the next 6 min before falling 50 ticks just before the top of the hour to the 200/100 SMAs. After that it achieved a double top 20 min later then backed off and chopped sideways.

6J 06-14 (1 min) 3.14.2014

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Mar 192014

3/14/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EST)
Forecast: 81.9
Actual: 79.9
TRAP TRADE (DULL – No Fill)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009867 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009874 – 0955:51 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009862 – 0956:49 (2 min)
)))-12 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.009871 – 1001 (6 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009850 – 1010 (15 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009859 (just above the low of 0946 bar) / 0.009852 (no SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009875 (above the R2 Mid Pivot ) / 0.009882 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in moderately lower than the forecast by 2.0 points causing a tame long impulse on the 6J for only 7 ticks as it attempted to cross all 3 major SMAs, but could not scale the 100 SMA. That would have fallen short of the inner short order and exceeded the 20 sec limit, so cancel the order. Interestingly, the price moved 4 ticks lower than our anchor point after the deployment, so a shift of position 2-4 ticks lower on the setup would have possibly seen a fill. It is also a safe report to move the tier in to an area when you see it hovering. In this case it hovered at 0.009870 for about 10 sec, so a shift down to 0.009872 or 0.009873 would have worked out. Then it reversed quickly for 12 ticks about 1 min later. After that it pulled back long for 9 ticks to reach the 50 SMA 4 min later before reversing for 21 ticks in the next 9 min.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.5.2014

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Mar 242014

3/5/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 159K
Actual: 139K
Previous revision: -48K to 127K
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 132’06
1st Peak @ 132’13 – 0817 (2 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 132’05 – 0825 (10 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report mildly fell short of the forecast by 20K jobs along with a large 48K downward revision to the previous report. This caused a smaller long reaction that started on the 50 SMA and crossed the 100/200 SMAs, the OOD, and collided with the S1 Mid Pivot for 7 ticks on the : bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 132’10 with 1 tick slippage, then seen it hover between the 200 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot. The prudent exit would have been at 132’12 with 2 ticks on the S1 Mid Pivot after seeing the hovering. After the :01 bar, it continued to hover above the 200 SMA for 5 more min before falling back to the origin on the reversal on the next 3 bars.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.3.2014

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 242014

3/3/2014 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 52.3
Actual: 53.2
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 133’16
1st Peak @ 133’11 – 1001 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 133’23 – 1016 (16 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report came in modestly better than the forecast, with a reading 0.9 points above the forecast causing a small and shortly sustained bearish reaction. We saw a short spike of 5 ticks on the :01 bar that started just below the R2 Pivot / OOD / 50 SMA then crossed the R2 Mid Pivot and LOD for 5 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 133’13 with no slippage, then seen it settle to hover in between 133’13 and 133’12 for about 30 sec in the middle of the :01 bar allowing for an exit at breakeven or +1 tick. The quick pullback, lack of 2nd peak attempt and strong reversal were due to breaking news about Russian President Putin’s aggression in the Ukraine which caused a rally on the ZB and overrode the ISM sentiment. Normally we would have seen a stronger push lower for 2-4 more ticks, and/or a solid 2nd peak within 15 min. Instead we saw 12 tick reversal in 15 minutes to the 200 SMA. This is a case where you want to take the proactive step to get out with the hovering even if eating a 1-2 tick loss. Do not watch it slowly march to the 5 tick stop loss.

NG 07-13 (1 Min) 6.13.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

6/13/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 96B
Actual: 95B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 3.750 (1029)
Premature Spike @ 3.772 – 1030 (1 min)
22 ticks

1st Peak @ 3.776 – 1031 (2 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 3.733 – 1031 (2 min)
43 ticks

Final Peak @ 3.850 – 1205 (95 min)
100 ticks

Reversal to 3.797 – 1406 (216 min)
53 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report saw a premature long spike of 22 ticks about 8 sec before the news, then after the release, it gained another handful of ticks before reversing for 43 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 3.764 with about 4 ticks of slippage on the premature spike. Due to the timing of 8 sec early, it is not news based, but leaves little time to capture any profit before the real spike. Close near breakeven (+/- 5 ticks) before the reversal on the matching report hits the stop loss. After the reversal crossed the major SMAs and nearly hit the S1 Pivot, it popped back up for a stepping peaks, using the 20 SMA as support and achieving 100 ticks in about 90 min. Then it corrected back to give up 53 ticks in 2 hrs, crossing the R1 Pivot and 200 SMA.

NG 07-13 (1 Min) 6.20.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

6/20/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 89B
Actual: 95B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 3.890 (1029)
Premature Spike @ 3.951 – 1030 (1 min)
61 ticks

1st Peak @ 3.835 – 1031 (2 min)
116 ticks

Reversal to 3.927 – 1106 (6 min)
92 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report saw a premature long spike of 61 ticks about 1-2 sec before the news that hit the PP Pivot, then after the release, it promptly reversed to the 1st peak for 116 ticks, nearly reaching the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 3.915 with about 15 ticks of slippage on the premature spike. Due to the timing and large sized spike, close out quickly before the reversal on the matching report hits the stop loss. After the reversal completely shot down for 116 ticks, it quickly pulled back up leaving 44 ticks on the tail naked. Then it chopped sideways and eventually gained another 48 ticks for a reversal to the S1 Mid Pivot after about 35 min. A 20-25 tick profit target and a breakeven setting of 20 seems to work well for these reports.

NG 08-13 (1 Min) 6.27.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

6/27/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 89B
Actual: 95B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 3.688 (1029)
Premature Spike @ 3.734 – 1030 (1 min)
46 ticks

1st Peak @ 3.614 – 1031 (2 min)
120 ticks

Final Peak @ 3.563 – 1138 (68 min)
171 ticks

Reversal to 3.597 – 1244 (134 min)
34 ticks

Notes Moderately larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a healthy premature long spike just a few sec before the report that crossed the PP Pivot and hit the OOD, then a consistent news based spike that fell 120 ticks on the next 2 bars. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 3.698 with no slippage a few min before the premature spike as it was maneuvering. I left it on the chart with a 20 tick profit target that easily filled before the 1st peak sent it south. After the 1st peak, it turned into a downward fan achieving a final peak of 51 more ticks hitting the S3 Pivot in a little over an hour. Then it traded sideways, only able to recover 34 ticks in the next hour. A 20-25 tick profit target and a breakeven setting of 20 seems to work well for these reports.

NG 08-13 (1 Min) 7.3.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

7/3/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1200 EDT)
Forecast: 75B
Actual: 72B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.584 (1159)
1st Peak @ 3.645 – 1201 (2 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 3.609 – 1202 (3 min)
36 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.664 – 1213 (14 min)
80 ticks

Reversal to 3.616 – 1253 (53 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Mildly smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a long spike without a premature move that crossed the PP Pivot and hit the OOD for 61 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 3.609 with about 15 ticks of slippage. A 20 tick profit target would have filled before internal retracement caused a stop out when it retreated 25 ticks before rallying long again. After the 1st peak, it reversed for 36 ticks to hit the S1 Mid Pivot, before heading long again for a 2nd peak of 19 more ticks in 12 min, eclipsing the HOD and R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed to nearly reach the 100 SMA in about 40 min for 48 ticks.

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