Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 09.04.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Sep 042012

9/4/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 50.0
Actual: 49.6
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.99
1st Peak @ 95.88 – 0401 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 96.16 – 0403 (3 min)
28 ticks

Final Peak @ 95.12 – 0450 (50 min)
87 ticks

Reversal to 95.66 – 0513 (73 min)
54 ticks

Notes: Report fell slightly short of the forecast and came in below the threshold of 50 indicating a small contraction for the third month in a row, but the sharpest contraction in 4 yrs. This initially caused a dullish reaction of only 11 ticks, that quickly bounced back long into a 28 tick reversal on the :03 bar as it hit the S2 Pivot. After the gravity of the report was digested, the market dove into a bearish fan, shorting for 87 ticks in about 45 min. With JOBB, you would have filled short with no slippage at 95.02, then had an opportunity to close with 2-3 ticks as it hovered in the 95.90 area. The market was probably oversold in the very short term due to the drop of over 100 ticks in the previous 2 hrs, and 60 ticks in the previous 25 min. This prevented the initial spike from falling more and reduced the overall magnitude of the secondary fall. The secondary drop crossed the S2 Pivot then found support in the 95.12 area which held after 2 more attempts to penetrate. The reversal was able to reclaim 54 ticks in about 23 min.

NG 10 12 (1 Min) 08.30.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Aug 302012

8/30/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 65B
Actual: 66B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 2.688
1st Peak @ 2.637 / Reverse to 2.697 / Settle @ 2.676 – 0431 (1 min)
-51 ticks / 60 ticks / -23 ticks

Reversal to 2.730 – 0440 (10 min)
54 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report met the expected gain in supply from the forecast caused a strong double wicker on the :31 bar. It shorted 51 ticks in 1 sec, then reversed 60 ticks 30 sec later before dropping 23 ticks to settle at 2.676 as the :31 bar expired. With JOBB, after 20-25 ticks of slippage, you would have filled short at about 2.662, then seen it reverse and hover 3-10 ticks in the red for about 8 sec. Close out there with about 8 ticks loss to avoid the stop loss of 15+ ticks. The market was trading sideways before the report, yet all 3 major SMAs were below the market action. The initial spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot before bottoming out just above the S1 Pivot. The reversal eventually climbed above the 3 major SMAs and crossed the R1 Pivot to peak at 2.730.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.30.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Aug 302012

8/30/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 370K
Actual: 374K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.58
1st Peak @ 95.28 – 0235 (5 min)
30 ticks

2nd Peak @ 95.20 – 0238 (8 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 95.40 – 0248 (18 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report came in mildly worse than the forecast by only 4K jobs. The market must have been in an overbought condition prior to the report to cause such a strong short reaction on a tepid report. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 95.52 with minimal slippage. Since this report normally peaks on the :31 bar and all 3 major SMAs are acting as support, look to close out at or near the 50 SMA with 5-6 ticks. It continued lower for 30 ticks in 5 min and 38 ticks in 8 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs. Then it reversed to recover 20 ticks and got stuck between the 100 and 200 SMAs for several minutes.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.29.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Aug 292012

8/29/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.1M
Actual: 3.8M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.50
1st Peak @ 95.13 – 0432 (2 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 95.61 – 0437 (7 min)
48 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.76 – 0524 (54 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 95.29 – 0547 (77 min)
53 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in inventory when a small loss was expected caused a medium sized short spike for 37 ticks in 2 min. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 95.37, then had an opportunity to get at least 15 ticks or more with ease. The spike did not cross any of the major SMAs or Pivots. After the intial spike, it reversed for 48 ticks before stepping lower to a 2nd peak of 74 ticks in 54 min. Then it reversed for 53 ticks to eclipse the 100 SMA.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.28.12

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Aug 282012

8/28/2012 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 65.8
Actual: 60.6
Previous revision: -0.5 to 65.4
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 95.69
1st Peak @ 95.43 – 0402 (3 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 96.11 – 0413 (13 min)
68 ticks

Notes: Report fell strongly short of the forecast with a small downward revision to the previous report. This caused a choppy short spike over 3 minutes that fought through the PP Pivot to bottom out at 95.43. The market had sold off about 80 ticks in the previous 30 min, so all the major SMAs were above the market. The short term oversold sentiment and the strong support at and below the PP Pivot prevented the market from dropping any further. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 95.62, then had an opportunity to close at about 95.50 with at least 10-12 ticks. Then the reversal rebounded for 68 ticks in 11 minutes, fighting through all 3 major SMAs with ease. It finally hit resistance at the 200 SMA, unable to go above 96.11 in 3 bars on the first attempt.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.29.12

Prelim GDP Comments Off

Aug 292012

8/29/2012 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.7%
Actual: 1.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 95.74
1st Peak@ 95.65 – 0232 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 96.05 – 0238 (8 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast, causing an initial dull reaction for a short move of only 9 ticks in 2 min. The market had been trading sideways before the report with all 3 major SMAs in a tight fist below the market action, but the short spike hit the S1 Pivot. It was unable to drop to the 50 SMA, but if it had, it would have encountered strong support and bounced sharply upward. With JOBB, your order would not have filled in the first 15 sec, so cancel the order. After the initial drop, the market reversed for 40 ticks in 6 min to hit the PP Pivot, before retreating slowly. The bulls returned after the market was relieved that the GDP reading did not disappoint. Also notice the action after the pit open resembled the action after the report broke…a small short move followed by a bigger long rebound.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.24.12

Durable Goods Comments Off

Aug 242012

8/24/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: -0.4%
Previous revision: -1.1% to -2.2%
Regular Forecast: 2.6%
Regular Actual: 4.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 96.07
Peak @ 96.01 (1 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report came in as a mixed bag. The more influential core reading came in worse than expected with a downward revision to the previous report. This was offset by a strong regular reading exceeding the forecast by a greater margin that the core disappointed. This all resulted in traders seeing it as a wash and having no impetus to buy or sell. With JOBB you would never have seen the market get closer than 1 tick to your bracket with a 7 tick buffer. Following the guidance, cancel the order when it did not execute in 10-15 sec. You would have been safe in this case anyway until the :34 bar finally broke out of the tight trading range short. No SMAs influenced the trading, so the balance of information must have truly straddled the line of positive/negative.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.23.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Aug 232012

8/23/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 365K
Actual: 372K
DULL REACTION then SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 97.84
1st Peak @ 97.79 / Reverse to 97.88 – 0233 (3 min)
-5 ticks / 4 ticks
Peak @ 97.45 – 0235 (5 min)
39 ticks

Final Peak @ 97.36 – 0301 (31 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 97.73 – 0318 (48 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Report came in worse than the forecast by only 7K jobs. This small deviation did not cause a strong reaction initially as the market strayed only 5 ticks away from the origin. However as the gravity of the first reading in a month to be worse than 370K set in, the bears drove the market for a strong delayed 39 tick short move. With JOBB, you should have canceled due to the dull reaction with no fill in 10 sec. After the drop, it chopped sideways for 25 min, then achieved a smaller 2nd peak of 9 more ticks after the pit open before the reversal advanced to eclipse the R1 Pivot.

NG 09 12 (1 Min) 08.23.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Aug 232012

8/23/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 40B
Actual: 47B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.764
1st Peak @ 2.682 – 0431 (1 min)
82 ticks

Reversal to 2.730 – 0436 (6 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Larger than expected gain in supply from the forecast caused a fairly large short spike on the :31 bar. With JOBB, after 20-25 ticks of slippage, you would still have an opportunity for 25-35 ticks of profit when it hovered at the 2.702 area. The market was already trending lower, so all 3 major SMAs were above the trade action. The spike only crossed the S2 Pivot about halfway down its descent. 2.682 was a low tested on 8/16 and a firm area of support with no trading below the level happening since late June. The reversal gained 48 ticks in 5 min to find resistance in the area of the S2 Pivot. There is no clear opportunity for a secondary trade on this report, so play it safe and sit it out. After the reversal, the market did not stray too far from the area of the S2 Pivot, encountering resistance when the SMAs trended lower and support at the 2.720 area.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.22.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Aug 222012

8/22/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.1M
Actual: -5.4M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 96.73
1st Peak @ 97.18 – 0432 (1 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 96.74 – 0435 (5 min)
44 ticks

Notes: Large loss of inventory when no change was expected caused a decent long spike for 45 ticks in 1 min. I included the large green :30 bar since the spike occurred at :59 seconds and after the JOBB bracket would have activated. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 96.88, then had an opportunity to get at least 10 ticks or more with ease. The market was already trading above all 3 major SMAs at the report release. Then it reversed strongly, leaving a large wick on the :32 bar and giving back all of the gains in 5 min. Then it oscillated upward for the next 90 min finding support between the 50 and 100 SMAs, and resistance between 97.35 and 97.50.

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