11/14/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.0%
Previous revision: +0.1% to 1.2%
Regular Forecast: -0.2%
Regular Actual: -0.3%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 1.3%
INDECISIVE THEN SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 85.39
1st Peak @ 85.29 – 0331 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 85.49 – 0331 (1 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 84.93 – 0401 (31 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 85.65 – 0423 (53 min)
72 ticks

Notes: Report was mildly positive on both the core and actual reading offset by a mild upward revision on the previous readings. PPI at the same time and was fairly negative. Since the market was caught in the middle of the SMAs, it initially took a short dive of 10 ticks and ran into the PP Pivot to retrace upward to cross the 50 SMA then hit the 100 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 85.30 with about 2 ticks of slippage, then likely been stopped out on the retracement. Even with the initial indecision, it found its true direction for a 2nd peak, crossing the PP Pivot, trading mostly sideways, then another drop after the pit open. Then it reversed for 72 ticks in the next 20 min. Given the overall bearish nature of the news and the predictable tendency of a 2nd peak, a secondary short entry in the 85.44 area on the :32-:34 bars would be wise.

9/14/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.7%
Core Actual: 0.8%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.7%
Regular Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to 0.6%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 99.90
1st Peak @ 100.11 – 0232 (2 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 99.56 – 0246 (16 min)
55 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly positive, but barely exceeded the forecast on the core and regular readings while enduring a downward revision on the previous regular reading. Core CPI broke at the same time and was slightly negative. Since the market had just eclipsed the $100 level for the first time in 5 months, it was in a corrective downtrend. The aggregate of the news caused a brief rally against the grain for 21 ticks that hit the 50 SMA and then fell into the reversal. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 99.97 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to close out with a handful of ticks as it bounced between the 13 and 50 SMAs. The reversal reclaimed 55 ticks in 16 min, stepping lower and using the 13 as resistance.

7/16/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: -0.4%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.1%
Regular Actual: -0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 86.88
1st Peak @ 86.80 – 0231 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 87.02 – 0234 (4 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly negative, falling short of the forecast across the board with no previous report revision. Empire State Manufacturing broke at the same same and was moderately positive. Normally the aggregate of bearish news would cause a strong short move, but 2 factors prevented that. 1) There was strong support in the 86.80 area that had been tested several times in the previous 12 hrs without failing, and 2) the news was so negative that the dollar fell precipitously for 30 minutes thus mitigating the bearish sentiment on oil. With JOBB you may have filled at the lower limit or missed the spike by 1 tick with slippage. In either case, when it fails to shoot downward after the initial drop, close out. The reversal reclaimed 22 ticks in 4 min, bouncing off of the 86.80 level and stalling just above the 200 SMA after crossing all 3 major SMAs. As the dollar continued to fall for an hour after the report release, we saw a rally on the CL for nearly 100 ticks coinciding.

5/15/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual:0.1%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual:0.1%
Previous Revision:-0.1% to 0.7%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.32
1st Peak @ 95.48 – 0231 (1 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 95.80 – 0239 (9 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 94.63 – 0315 (45 min)
117 ticks

Notes: Report was negative, falling short of the forecast across the board, but CPI and Empire State Manufacturing Index broke at the same time. CPI was flat, but the Empire reading was very strong, causing the small upward spike and 2nd peak that crossed the R1 Pivot for 16 and 48 ticks respectively. Then the negative results of the Retail Sales report took over on the strong reversal of 117 ticks. It fought through the R1 and PP Pivots along with all 3 major SMAs to find a bottom at 94.63, 24 ticks lower than the PP Pivot.

3/13/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.8%
Core Actual:0.9%
Previous revision:+0.4% to 1.1%
Regular Forecast: 1.1%
Regular Actual: 1.1%
Previous Revision:+0.2% to 0.6%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 106.78
1st Peak @ 106.88 – 0231 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 106.92 – 0236 (6 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 106.74 – 0243 (13 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Due to matching the forecast overall and with the CL caught in a tight FIST at the time of the release, little impact to the market was felt. If you used JOBB, you probably got in long at 106.83 or 106.84 on the initial spike and then saw it retrace to loiter in the 106.76 – 106.83 range. Normally I advise to get out when you see this reaction and even eat a small loss rather than wait for it to potentially hit your stop loss. However my experience and intuition led me to stay in. Looking at the 15 min chart, the 200 SMA was at 106.80 and the 5 min chart 200 SMA was at 106.77. These served as powerful barriers. I moved up my stop loss to 106.75 and placed a pending sell limit at 106.86 based on the height of the 0831 candle at 106.88 and the double bottom at 106.75. Then my exit order was filled on the 0836 candle with 3 ticks of profit on the 2nd peak ascent. As the peak magnitudes were small, the reversal was also small.