Unemployment Weekly | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.8.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 252014

5/8/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 328K
Actual: 319K
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.009831 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009838 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009825 – 0830:03 (1 min)
)))-13 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009822 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009811 (just above the LOD)
Short entries – 0.009839 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot/HOD) / 0.009849 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in moderately strong with 9K less jobs lost than the forecast with no other significant statistical news. This caused a 7 tick long unsustainable spike in 1 sec that rose to cross the R1 Mid Pivot and OOD, then immediately fell back to the origin. This would have just missed your inner short entry tier, but the setup was perfect as it quickly retreated. It continued to chop up and down as the ECB Press conference progressed and impacted after about 2 min.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.15.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 272014

5/15/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 321K
Actual: 297K
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.009817 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009802 – 0830:10 (1 min)
)))-15 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009808 – 0830:57 (1 min)
)))6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009797 – 0837 (7 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.009824 – 0847 (17 min)
27 ticks

Pullback to 0.009810 – 0856 (26 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009808 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009799 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009825 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.009836 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in strong with 24K less jobs lost than the forecast with a moderately strong core CPI reading. This caused a 15 tick short spike in 10 sec that fell to cross the S2 Pivot. This would have filled your inner long entry tier with about 6 ticks to spare, then retreated to your fill point and stalled at the S2 Mid Pivot. With the strongly biased news, look to exit at about breakeven where it hovered. After that it fell for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks in the ext 6 min, then it reversed strongly for 27 ticks in 10 min. If you had left the trade open, the outer long entry would have filled with ideal position, then allowed a profitable exit with over 30 total ticks, but this would not have been advisable given the situation.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.22.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 012014

5/22/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 312K
Actual: 326K
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009838 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009844 – 0830:03 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009840 – 0832:02 (3 min)
)))-4 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009849 – 0839 (9 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.009841 – 0855 (25 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009828 (on the LOD) / 0.009820 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009847 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.009857 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in mildly weak with 14K more jobs lost than the forecast with no other news. This caused a dull 6 tick long spike in 3 sec that rose to cross the 100 SMA. This would have missed your inner short entry tier by 3 ticks and then hovered. Cancel the order with no fill after 20 sec. After the peak, it fell for 4 ticks in the next 2 min, then rose for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks, crossing the 200 SMA. Then it fell 8 ticks in the next 16 min to cross the 50 SMA.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.29.2014

Prelim GDP, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 042014

5/29/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 321K
Actual: 300K
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.009843 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009854 – 0830:07 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009846 – 0830:21 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.009852 – 0830:42 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009838 – 0832:26 (3 min)
)))-14 ticks
————
Extended Reversal to 0.009826 – 0902 (32 min)
26 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009831 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009823 (on the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009854 (just above the R2 Pivot) / 0.009862 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in strong with 21K less jobs lost than the forecast with a very disappointing prelim GDP that fell 1.0%. This caused a 11 long spike that crossed the 200 SMA and the R2 Pivot, then fell to eventually reverse about 16 ticks. This would have barely filled or just missed your inner short entry tier depending upon your placement (54 or lower would have filled). If filled, you would have seen it fall to give you 8 ticks immediately, then pullback and fall to allow up to 16 ticks to be captured on the :33 bar. The GDP #s drove the initial long spike, then the claims took over. It fell another 12 ticks in the next 30 min as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 6.5.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 142014

6/5/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 309K
Actual: 312K
TRAP TRADE (DULL -NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009744 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009737 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009745 – 0830:48 (1 min)
)))8 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009734 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009724 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009753 (just above the 100 SMA) / 0.009762 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with 3K more jobs lost than the forecast. This caused a 7 short spike that started on the PP Pivot, then fell and promptly reversed back to the PP Pivot. All of the movement would have been well inside of the inner tiers, so cancel the order. In the aftermath, the EUR ECB press conference took over the stage to influence the markets as on the :34 bar for at least the next hour.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 6.12.2014

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 042014

6/12/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: +0.4% to 0.4%
Regular Forecast: 0.5%
Regular Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: +0.4% to 0.5%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 134’26 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 135’00 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 134’30 – 0830:12 (1 min)
)))-2 ticks

)))Pullback to 135’03 – 0830:39 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Reversal to 135’00 – 0832 (2 min)
3 ticks

2nd Peak @ 135’06 – 0835 (5 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 134’31 – 0839 (9 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 135’08 – 0900 (30 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 135’01 – 0914 (44 min)
7 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 134’22 (on the S1 Pivot / LOD) / 134’18 (on the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 134’30 (just below the OOD and R1 Mid Pivot) / 135’02 (on the HOD)

Notes: Report was double booked with unemployment claims, so we used the Trap Trade approach. All of the news was negative with core and regular retail sales falling 0.3% short of the forecast and claims exceeding the forecast while the previous revisions were large and bullish. This caused a long move of 6 ticks initially that crossed the OOD. This would have filled the inner short entry with 2 tick to spare, then backed off to hover near the fill point. Upon noticing the strong bias and lack of conflict in the news, look to exit near breakeven early in the :01 bar. After the initial seconds it continued to step higher in the next 30 min as it established a new high the then reversed for 7 ticks afterward.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 6.12.2014

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 042014

6/12/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 306K
Actual: 317K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009791 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009802 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009796 – 0830:11 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.009802 – 0830:34 (1 min)
)))6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009805 – 0834 (4 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.009799 – 0848 (18 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009779 (on the S3 Mid Pivot) / 0.009771 (just above the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009801(just above the 200 SMA /S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009809 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in disappointing with 11K more jobs lost than the forecast coupled with a very disappointing Retail Sales report. This caused a relatively small 11 tick long spike that started on the S2 Mid Pivot, then rose to cross the 200 SMA / S1 Mid Pivot then backed off 6 ticks in 11 sec. Depending on the placement of the tiers, this may have filled your inner tier. 10-12 ticks would have been a range of 0.009801 to 0.009803. I chose 0.009801 due to the 200 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot being strong resistance. Look to exit with about 3-4 ticks when it hovered with the news being consistent and strongly biased. It climbed for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks after 3 min, then fell 6 ticks in the next 14 min.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 6.19.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 052014

6/19/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 316K
Actual: 312K
TRAP TRADE (DULL -NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009821 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar span 0.009821 – 0.009822
)))1 tick
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009812 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009802 (no SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009830 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009840 (no SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with 4K more jobs lost than the forecast. This caused no reaction as the :31 bar seemed unfazed and moved only 1 tick. The movement would have been well inside of the inner tiers, so cancel the order. No significant movement in the next several min either.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 6.26.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 082014

6/26/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 314K
Actual: 312K
TRAP TRADE (DULL -NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009832 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009837 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009828 – 0830:05 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.009839 – 0831:42 (2 min)
)))11 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.009832 – 0836 (6 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009842 – 0846 (16 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.009836 – 0905 (35 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009823 (on the OOD) / 0.009813 (no SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009840 (just above the HOD) / 0.009851 (no SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with 2K more jobs lost than the forecast. This caused a small long reaction that rose only 5 ticks, then fell 9 ticks immediately. The movement would have been well inside of the inner tiers, so cancel the order. It continued to chop up and down, but the swings were small and contained.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 7.10.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 212014

7/10/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 316K
Actual: 304K
TRAP TRADE (DULL -NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009874 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.009872 – 0.009875 – 0831 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————
Delayed Peak @ 0.009884 – 0834 (4 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.009878 – 0837 (7 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009864 (on the R1 Pivot) / 0.009854 (on the OOD)
Short entries – 0.009882 (just above the HOD) / 0.009894 (on the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in impressive with 12k less jobs lost than the forecast. It was almost like the market was not paying attention as there was no impulse after the release as the :31 bar only moved 3 ticks. The movement would have been well inside of the inner tiers, so cancel the order. It ended up causing a delayed long move of 10 ticks on the :34 bar to the HOD, then a reversal of 6 ticks 3 min later.

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