Unemployment Weekly | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 7.17.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Aug 042014

7/17/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 310K
Actual: 302K
TRAP TRADE (DULL -NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009854 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009862 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009858 – 0834:27 (5 min)
)))-4 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009846 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009834 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009864 (just below the R3 Pivot) / 0.009874 (just above the R4 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in impressive with 10k less jobs lost than the forecast. Building Permits / Housing Starts were released at the same time and came in disappointing. This caused an 8 tick long spike that crossed all 3 Major SMAs and the R3 Mid Pivot. The move would have probably missed the inner tier short order by 1 or 2 ticks, so cancel the order. After the spike it took over 4 min to reverse for a meager 4 ticks, so if you have been filled, you would have had an opportunity to exit between 1 and 4 ticks. After that it was tame and traded sideways.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 7.24.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Aug 042014

7/24/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 310K
Actual: 284K
TRAP TRADE (DULL -NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009836 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009828 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009833 – 0830:22 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.009836 – 0833 (3 min)
8 ticks

Double Bottom @ 0.009828 – 0840 (10 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.009836 – 0903 (33 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009828 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot) / 0.009818 (just below the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009845 (just below the 200 SMA/S1 Pivot) / 0.009855 (between the PP/S1 Mid Pivots)

Notes: Report came in impressive with 26k less jobs lost than the forecast and also came in well under 300K for the first time in years. This caused an 8 tick short spike that crossed the S3 Mid Pivot and extended the LOD then retreated quickly. The move would have filled your inner long entry if you used 8 ticks, but would have missed if anything larger. If filled, look to exit at about 0.009833 with 5 ticks in the later part of the :31 bar as the strongly biased news is likely to cause a drop again. It continued to reverse for 3 more ticks in the next 2 min to reach the 13 SMA. Then it fell for a double bottom 7 min later and reversed for 8 ticks after another 23 min as it crossed the 50 SMA.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 7.31.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Aug 172014

7/31/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 303K
Actual: 302K
TRAP TRADE (DULL -NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009723 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009710 – 0832:10 (3 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009718 – 0836:20 (7 min)
)))8 ticks
————
Double Bottom @ 0.009710 – 0841 (11 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.009721 – 0857 (27 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009713 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009704 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009732 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009741 (above the PP Pivot/ HOD)

Notes: Report came in matching with only 1k offset to cause a tame slow developing short reaction of 13 ticks over 2+ min. The move only fell 6 ticks as of 20 sec into the bar, so cancel the order. It continued falling another 7 ticks to cross the S1 Mid Pivot, then retreated 8 ticks in the next 4 min to the 13 SMA. After that it fell for a double bottom, then reversed 11 ticks in about 16 min to reach the 100 SMA.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 8.7.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Aug 302014

8/7/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 305K
Actual: 289K
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009778 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009771 – 0830:09 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009776 – 0830:18 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.009770 – 0833 (3 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.009783 – 0856 (26 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009768 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.009760 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 0.009786 (above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009796 (just above the OOD)

Notes: Report came in impressive with 16k offset to cause a short reaction of 7 ticks. The move was just a few ticks short of the inner tier long entry as of 20 sec into the bar, so cancel the order. It reversed for 5 ticks, then pulled back 6 ticks, but could not reach the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed for 13 ticks to the SMAs in the next 23 min.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 8.14.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Aug 302014

8/14/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 307K
Actual: 311K
TRAP TRADE (DULL -NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009764 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009772 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009767 – 0830:23 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009776 – 0843 (13 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.009767 – 0910 (40 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009756 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009744 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009774 (above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009783 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in narrowly disappointing with a 4k offset to cause a long reaction of 8 ticks. The move was just a few ticks short of the inner tier short entry as of 20 sec into the bar, so cancel the order. It reversed for 5 ticks, then pulled back for a double top on the :33 bar. Then it continued to rally for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and extended the HOD after 12 min. Then it reversed for 9 ticks, to the 100 SMA and PP Pivot after 27 min.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 8.21.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Sep 032014

8/21/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 302K
Actual: 298K
TRAP TRADE (DULL -NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009634 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009629 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009637 – 0832:33 (3 min)
)))8 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.009642 – 0848 (18 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009624 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.009614 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009643 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009653 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in narrowly impressive with a 4k offset to cause a short reaction of only 5 ticks. The move was well short of the inner tier short entry as of 20 sec into the bar, so cancel the order or manually move the buy order up to 0.009630 when it stalled and hovered there for over 30 sec and look for about 8-10 ticks until it tries to cross the 13 SMA or hits the S1 Mid Pivot. It reversed for 8 ticks in 2 min, stalled, then reversed for another 5 ticks to reach the S1 Mid Pivot after 18 min.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 8.28.2014

Prelim GDP, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Sep 092014

8/28/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 299K
Actual: 298K
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.009640 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009621 – 0830:04 (1 min)
)))-19 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009635 – 0830:13 (1 min)
)))14 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.009641 – 0838 (8 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009630 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009622 (just above the LOD / on S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009651 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009658 (just above the HOD / R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in matching with only 1k offset while the concurrently released Prelim GDP came in 0.3% better than the forecast to cause a short reaction of 19 ticks. This would have taken 4 sec to breach the inner and outer long entry tiers to give you an average entry of 0.009626. Since it crossed the PP Pivot and hit the LOD, it retreated quickly to hover around the 0.009632 area to allow an easy fast exit with about 10-14 total ticks. If you were patient, you could have secured up to 16 more ticks as it rose in the next 7 min to the 20 SMA and R1 Pivot. After the reversal, it traded sideways.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 9.4.2014

Trade Balance, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Sep 212014

9/4/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 298K
Actual: 302K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.009531 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009546 – 0830:23 (1 min)
)))15 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009532 – 0831:07 (2 min)
)))-14 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.009524 – 0837 (7 min)
22 ticks

Pullback to 0.009535 – 0844 (14 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009521 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009512 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009541 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009550 (on the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with only 4k offset while the concurrently released Trade Balance came in 2.0B better than the forecast to conflict and cause a long reaction of 15 ticks. This would filled your inner tier and fallen short of the outer by 4-5 ticks. Then it would have reversed quickly for 14 ticks in the early part of the :02 bar, then continued for another 8 ticks in the next 5 min. Look to exit below the PP Pivot for about 9-10 ticks. After struggling with the S1 Pivot and reaching the 100 SMA, it pulled back for 11 ticks in the next 7 min to the PP Pivot.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 9.11.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Sep 212014

9/11/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 306K
Actual: 315K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009346 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009351 – 0830:44 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009348 – 0831:28 (2 min)
)))-3 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009377 – 0900 (30 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 0.009357 – 0914 (44 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009338 (just below the S2 Pivot) / 0.009326 (just above the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009355 (in between the S1 Mid /S1 Pivots) / 0.009366 (just below the PP Pivot)

Notes: Report came in disappointing with 9k offset with no other news to cause a dull 5 tick long spike to the S1 Pivot. This would have fallen several ticks short of the inner short entry, so cancel the order. After a small reversal on the :32 bar, it climbed for a slow developing 2nd peak of 26 more ticks in the next 28 min to reach the HOD. Then it fell 20 ticks in the next 14 min to the S1 Mid Pivot and 50 SMA.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 9.18.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Oct 092014

9/18/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 312K
Actual: 280K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009194 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009192 – 0830:04 (1 min)
)))-2 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009196 – 0830:27 (1 min)
)))4 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009185 – 0835 (5 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009204 – 0843 (13 min)
19 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009186 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009176 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009204 (on the 100 SMA) / 0.009213 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in strong with 32k offset but was coupled with a weak building permits / housing starts report. This must have created a perfect equilibrium initially as we only saw a 2 tick short move. This would have fallen several ticks short of the inner short entry, so cancel the order. It eventually fell for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks after 4 more min (on the claims news), then reversed 19 ticks to the 100 SMA (on the permits/housing data).

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