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1/16/2013 FED Beige Book (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION then SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.96
Traded between 93.85 and 93.98 for 14 min
range of 13 ticks

Final Peak @ 94.31 – 1430 (30 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 94.12 – 1434 (34 min)
19 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that the U.S. economy was expanding at a moderate pace last month, but faster than the pace of several months. This prompted analysts to expect the status quo for central bank action, thus generating little fireworks. Initially the report was stuck in a tight range with a short term low as the floor and the R1 as the ceiling for about 13 min. After that, it tested the short term low and bounced higher, fighting through all the major SMAs and the R1 Pivot for a final peak of 35 ticks as the pit closed. With JOBB, you would have cancelled the order after a dull 3 min. With little movement in the DX it was difficult to discern which way the eventual breakout would go. Once it broke through the R1 Pivot and 50 SMA, it was free to continue moving higher. It eventually peaked 5 ticks below the HOD. The reversal fell 19 ticks in the following 4 min nearly back to the 200 SMA after the pit closed.

1/16/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 2.0M
Actual: -1.0M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.50
1st Peak @ 93.69 – 1031 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 93.57 – 1032 (2 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.36 – 1107 (37 min)
86 ticks

Reversal to 94.08 – 1130 (60 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Moderate loss in crude inventories, while gasoline and distillates both saw small gains. This prompted a small long move that crossed no SMAs and the PP Pivot to reach the HOD. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 93.64 with 4 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to get a few ticks on the :31 bar, or wait and secure about 20 or more on the :33 bar when it shot up to the R1 Pivot. After the 1st peak, it reversed from the HOD for 12 ticks, then popped up to hit the R1 Pivot. After trading sideways below the R1 Pivot for about 30 min, it rallied to a final peak of 86 ticks at 94.36. Then it reversed back to just above the 50 SMA about 20 min later.

1/11/2013 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (0700 HI time / 1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 687.00
1st Peak @ 717.00 – 0703 (1 min)
120 ticks

Reversal to 701.50 – 0714 (14 min)
62 ticks

2nd Peak @ 723.75 – 0756 (56 min)
147 ticks

Reversal to 712.75 – 0848 (108 min)
44 ticks

Notes: Report time shifted to 1200 Eastern for this and all future reports. Report Reaction caused a long spike of 120 ticks over 3 bars (the largest of the last year), that completely changed the sentiment of the market as it have been selling off below the S3 Pivot and was at the LOD. The report drove it North through every measurable level of resistance to peak over 40 ticks above the R3 Pivot. After the first peak, it retreated to the R2 Pivot and 20 SMA in about 10 min, then engineered a long developing 2nd peak for another 27 ticks above the 1st peak nearly an hour after the report. I would be cautious trading later moves as you are in the afternoon session of Friday, but this was a very solid report. The final reversal after the 2nd peak yielded 44 ticks in about 50 min.

1/11/2013 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EST)
Forecast: -41.1B
Actual: -48.7B
Previous Revision: +0.1B to -42.1B
Spike / REVERSE
Started @ 93.38
1st Peak @ 93.26 – 0831 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 93.45 – 0834 (4 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of the forecast with the largest deficit since July. The market had just bounced off of the LOD long for about 50 ticks due to a falling dollar. The news caused a short move that fell only 12 ticks and hit the 200 SMA, but could go no lower. With JOBB you would have filled short at 93.31 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to close with 4 ticks at the end of the bar on the 200 SMA. The reversal coincided with a drop in the dollar after the news as it climbed 19 ticks in 3 min to hit the S1 Pivot and double top from the short term high achieved 10 min before the report. Then it fell to the 200 SMA 20 min later before it popped up again 10 ticks higher than the 1st peak but the delay means that the report influence likely is not the cause.

1/10/2013 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.92/2.5
Actual: 3.07/2.8
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 144’26 (0801)
1st Peak @ 145’07 – 0802 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 144’31 – 1312 (11 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 145’08 – 1318 (17 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 144’25 – 1400 (59 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose more than expected from the previous auction, after the FED move to buy $45B in long term bonds from the FOMC meeting a month ago. This caused a rally of 13 ticks. With JOBB you would fill long at 144’30 with 1 tick of slippage. The spike only crossed the S1 Pivot near the top of the peak. I had my exit on the S1 Pivot at 145’05 and filled with 7 ticks. After peaking, it reversed to the 20 SMA for 8 ticks, then garnered a 2nd peak of 1 more tick. The final reversal fell back to the origin at the S2 Pivot.

1/10/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -185B
Actual: -201B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.163
1st Peak @ 3.204 – 1031 (1 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 3.166 – 1039 (9 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Slightly larger loss than was forecast caused a long spike of 41 ticks that crossed no SMAs or Pivots as it was trending higher before the report. With JOBB, you would have filled long with about 12 ticks of slippage at about 3.185. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with about 15 ticks as it hovered in the 3.200 area. After achieving the 1st peak, 4 ticks below the R1 Pivot, it quickly retreated downward for 38 ticks in 8 min to touch the 20 SMA. After that it slowly rallied again to eventually eclipse the R1 Pivot 45 min after the report and chop sideways afterward.

1/9/2013 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 1.65/3.0
Actual: 1.86/2.8
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 145’17 (1301)
1st Peak @ 145’07 – 1306 (5 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 145’18 – 1434 (93 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose strongly from the previous auction after the FED commenced buying bonds. This caused the ZB to spike short for 10 ticks. With JOBB you would fill short at 145’14 with no slippage. Since it had to contend with all the major SMAs, the reaction spanned 5 min, but eventually eclipsed the 200 SMA by 2 ticks to bottom out. As this report normally averages 13-14 ticks and the minimum is 8 ticks, Look to exit at 145’09 +/- 1 tick for about 5 ticks at the 200 SMA and move the stop loss down to 145’17 (-3 ticks). It stayed stuck near the 200 SMA for about 20 min before reversing in the next hour for 11 ticks back to the origin.

1/9/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.9M
Actual: 1.3M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.43
1st Peak @ 93.18 – 1031 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 93.37 – 1032 (2 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 92.68 – 1046 (16 min)
75 ticks

Reversal to 93.12 – 1120 (50 min)
44 ticks

Notes: In spite of a nearly matching reading in crude inventories, gasoline and distillates both saw extremely large gains. This prompted a short move that crossed both the 100 and 200 SMAs and eclipsed the PP Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 93.28 with 5 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to get about 8 ticks as it eclipsed the PP Pivot. After the 1st peak, it reversed from the strong support of the 200 SMA and PP Pivot for 19 ticks. Then after about 5 min, it fought through and fell for a 2nd peak of 75 ticks in about 10 min. Then it reversed back up to cross the 50 SMA and chop sideways for 44 ticks in about 35 min.

1/4/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 H0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 150K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 155K
Previous Revision: +15K to 161K
Rate Forecast: 7.7%
Rate Actual: 7.8%

SPIKE/REVERSE
(CL)
Started @ 92.14
1st Peak @ 91.92 – 0831 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 92.40 – 0832 (2 min)
48 ticks

Extended Reversal to 92.99 – 1001 (91 min)
107 ticks

1/4/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 H0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 150K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 155K
Previous Revision: +15K to 161K
Rate Forecast: 7.7%
Rate Actual: 7.8%

SPIKE/REVERSE
(TF)
Started @ 872.3
1st Peak @ 870.0 – 0831 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 873.7 – 0837 (7 min)
37 ticks

1/4/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 H0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 150K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 155K
Previous Revision: +15K to 161K
Rate Forecast: 7.7%
Rate Actual: 7.8%

SPIKE/REVERSE
(ZB)
Started @ 143’29
1st Peak @ 144’14 – 0831 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 143’21 – 0839 (9 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Overall matching report with little fireworks…only 5K more jobs created than anticipated, a previous revision of +15K jobs, offset by a rise in the U-3 rate of 0.1%. This drove a tame market reaction, causing a short term bearish reaction that reversed upward on the CL and TF, and a rally, then reversal on the ZB. Both the CL and the TF peaked just a few seconds into the :01 bar for 20-30 ticks, then reversed to breakeven briefly, before reversing strongly into the :02 bar. As they were already trading above the major SMAs, the CL crossed the 50 SMA and bottomed at the 100 SMA, and the TF crossed the PP, R1 Pivots, the HOD, then nearly reached the R2 Pivot. Once again, the ZB outperformed both of the other indexes, rallying 17 ticks on the first bar (equivalent of about 51 ticks on the CL or TF), crossing the S1 Pivot about halfway up the spike. I traded the ZB with a 3 tick bracket, filling long at 144’01 with 1 ticks of slippage, then got out with 11 ticks at 144’12. After peaking, it reversed for 25 ticks in 8 min through all the major SMAs and bottomed at the S2 Pivot. Then it oscillated higher over the next hr.

We continue to recommend the ZB at the preferred index as demonstrated with a matching report, the ZB still generated 17 ticks (about 13 max capturable), and was stable in holding the peak unlike the CL and TF.

CL 02 13 (1 Min) 01.16.13

CL 02 13 (1 Min) 01.16.13

ZC 03 13 (1 Min) 01.11.13

CL 02 13 (1 Min) 01.11.13

ZB 03 13 (1 Min) 01.10.13

NG 02 13 (1 Min) 01.10.13

ZB 03 13 (1 Min) 01.09.13

CL 02 13 (1 Min) 01.09.13

CL 02 13 (2 Range) 01.04.13

CL 02 13 (1 Min) 01.04.13