US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 11.02.12

Factory Orders Comments Off

Nov 022012

11/2/2012 Monthly Factory Orders (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 4.7%
Actual: 4.8%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to -5.1%
SPIKE / WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 86.10
1st Peak @ 86.00 – 0401 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 85.53 – 0425 (25 min)
57 ticks

Reversal to 85.81 – 0432 (32 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report which was positive could not overcome the overall bearish sentiment prevailing from the Non-Farm Employment report from 90 min earlier. This caused the market to short 10 ticks, then trade sideways before heading downward into a much larger 2nd peak of 57 ticks in the following 25 min to hit the S2 Pivot. Normally the forecast and reading of this report is within the range of +/- 1.5%. The forecast of 4.7% was very abnormal and follows the previous month of -5.2%. The large 2nd peak was probably due to the Non Farm longterm effect, but coincided with this report. The reversal long was a correction back to the 50 SMA news after bouncing up from the S2 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 86.03 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to close out at break even or with a handful of ticks, or if you were patient and waited on the :06 bar, you would have had up to 20 ticks.

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 11.01.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 012012

11/1/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 51.2
Actual: 51.7
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 86.26
1st Peak @ 86.38 – 0401 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 86.21 – 0402 (2 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.59 – 0425 (25 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 86.35 – 0433 (33 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Due to Hurricane Sandy, The CB Consumer Confidence Report broke at the same time as ISM Manufacturing. This was not recommended for trading due to the combined report and bizarre circumstances. The ISM Report mildly exceeded the forecast and had another reading above 50 for the second time in 4 months and the CB Consumer Confidence matched the forecast. This caused a small spike of 12 ticks that crossed both the 200 and 100 SMAs then surrendered and reversed for 17 ticks. It achieved a labored 2nd peak of 33 ticks 25 min later crossing the PP Pivot on its way up. Then it reversed for 24 ticks to nick the 50 SMA.

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 11.01.12

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Nov 012012

11/1/2012 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 72.4
Actual: 72.2
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 86.26
1st Peak @ 86.38 – 0401 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 86.21 – 0402 (2 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.59 – 0425 (25 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 86.35 – 0433 (33 min)
24 ticks

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 11.01.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Nov 012012

11/1/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 371K
Actual: 363K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 86.25
1st Peak @ 86.42 – 0232 (2 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.62 – 0242 (12 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 86.09 – 0302 (32 min)
53 ticks

Notes: Report came in moderately better than the forecast by 8K jobs. This causes a medium sized long spike of 17 ticks in 2 min that had to cross all 3 SMAs. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 86.33 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it hover just above your fill for the rest of the bar. I would set a sell limit just above the 200 SMA and look to exit with about 5 ticks. After getting stuck around the 200 SMA for a few min, it was able to climb for a 2nd peak of 37 ticks about 10 min later. The reversal was able to bounce back for 53 ticks in about 20 min, most of it surrendered on after the pit open.

NG 12 12 (1 Min) 11.01.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Nov 012012

11/1/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 68B
Actual: 65B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.667
1st Peak @ 3.710 – 0431 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 3.655 – 0441 (11 min)
55 ticks

Notes: Slightly less gain in supply than the forecast caused a relatively mild spike of 43 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs, and was arrested by the 200 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the spike with about 20 ticks of slippage at about 3.700. More than likely your stop loss would not have gone on the chart due to the retracement quickness. Do not panic though, set your sell limit on the 200 or just below to eke out a small gain or break even. After achieving the 1st peak, it retreated to 3.682, just below the 100 SMA then bounced between the 200 and 100 SMA for 10 min. Then it dove for the reversal on the :11 bar to nick the S1 Pivot for 55 ticks total.

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 11.01.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Nov 012012

11/1/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0500 HI time / 1100 EDT)
Forecast: 1.9M
Actual: -2.0M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 86.70
1st Peak @ 86.95 – 0501 (1 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 87.42 – 0509 (9 min)
72 ticks

Reversal to 86.99 – 0519 (19 min)
43 ticks

Notes: Report was moved from Wednesday at its normal time to Thursday at 30 min later due to hurricane Sandy. Moderate loss in inventory when a moderate gain was expected caused a smaller than normal long spike for 25 ticks in 1 min. It is likely the R1 Pivot provided stronger than normal resistance to restrict the upward momentum. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 86.83 with 3 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to get about 5-10 ticks or more as it bobbed under the R1 Pivot. After 3 min of struggling to breach the R1 Pivot, it finally succeeded and climbed for a 2nd peak of 72 ticks on the :09 bar. Then it reversed for 43 ticks 10 min later on its way to the 50 SMA and continued to challenge each major SMA at varying intervals later.

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 10.26.12

Advance GDP Comments Off

Oct 262012

10/26/2012 Quarterly Advance GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.9%
Actual: 2.0%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to 1.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 85.83
1st Peak @ 86.17 – 0231 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 85.98 – 0232 (2 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.34 – 0239/0255 (9/25 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 85.69 – 0320 (50 min)
65 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded the forecast but still showed relatively anemic growth. A healthy economy should have a minimum of 3-3.5% and a recovering economy should be 4-5% or more. The initial spike yielded 34 ticks and only had to cross the PP Pivot close to the origin. The market was basically neutral prior to the report having initiated a bullish trend, but enduring a minor correction right before the report. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 85.93 with 3 ticks of slippage. I set my exit at 86.13 and filled easily with 20 ticks. I placed a secondary order, buying at 85.99 at the bottom of the :32 bar and planned to ride it for about 30 or so ticks. Unfortunately I closed out on the tail of the :36 bar with 1 tick loss when I thought it was going to continue short. Had I been more patient, I would have exited on the :39 bar with 30 ticks. The choppy path of ascending indicates volatility and lack of conviction. In this case do not look to stay in a trend trade for 30 min. After it hit the 2nd peak of 51 ticks on the :39 bar, it traded sideways for another 15 min before reversing for 65 ticks. The reversal crossed the 50, then 100, and almost reached the 200 SMA.

NG 12 12 (1 Min) 10.25.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Oct 252012

10/25/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 66B
Actual: 67B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.756
1st Peak @ 3.772 – 0431 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 3.712 – 0433 (3 min)
60 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report caused a dullish long spike of 16 ticks that crossed the 50 SMA, but could not go much higher than the 100 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the spike with about 2 ticks of slippage at about 3.768. Then when you see that it does not blast off normally, realize it is not going to yield much and close out with a few ticks or break even. The next bar began the reversal and the :03 bar shorted about 50 ticks to eclipse the S1 Pivot. If you had not closed out, you would have seen it hit your stop loss. Do not get caught waiting for a bounce and end up with a loss which is easily preventable.

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 10.24.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Oct 242012

10/24/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.0M
Actual: 5.9M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 86.46
1st Peak @ 85.55 – 0431 (1 min)
91 ticks

Reversal to 86.10 – 0432 (2 min)
45 ticks

2nd Peak @ 85.41 – 0436 (6 min)
105 ticks

Reversal to 85.99 – 0504 (34 min)
58 ticks

Notes: Large gain in inventory when a smaller gain was expected caused a large long spike for 91 ticks in 1 min. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 85.35 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to get at least 50 ticks or more with ease around the S1 Pivot. The spike crossed the 100 and 50 SMAs along with the S1 Pivot. After the initial spike, it reversed for 45 ticks before stepping lower to a 2nd peak of 105 ticks in 6 min. Then it reversed for 58 ticks to eclipse the 50 SMA before heading south again.

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 10.24.12

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Oct 242012

10/24/2012 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0815 HI time / 1415 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 85.77 (0815)
1st Peak @ 85.49 – 0818 (3 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 85.97 – 0819 (4 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Report released on time, as the FED chose to continue the existing open ended QE3 policy despite seeing certain indications of improving economic conditions. This caused both the CL and the DX to seesaw over several minutes between the 200 SMA on the low end, and the S1 Pivot on the high end. This would have been an ideal report for a trap trade with a span of about 40 ticks. Notice how the volume dried up and the range tightened as the pit closed at 0830, 15 min after the report released.

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