US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 10.10.12

Beige Book Comments Off

Oct 102012

10/10/2012 FED Beige Book (0800 HI time / 1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 91.91
1st Peak @ 91.77 – 0801 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 91.98 – 0802 (2 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 91.02 – 0823 (23 min)
89 ticks

Reversal to 91.40 – 0832 (32 min)
38 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that the U.S. economy was expanding “modestly” last month, supported by improvements in housing and auto sales, even as the labor market showed little change. Initially the report was modestly positive overall and caused a small uptick in the DX, resulting in a meager short spike of 14 ticks, crossing the 50 SMA and the PP Pivot briefly. Then it rebounded and traded sideways for 15 min between the 50 and 100 SMAs, before heading south for the 2nd peak of 89 ticks on the :15 – :23 bars as the DX rallied strongly. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 91.82, then had an opportunity close out with a handful of ticks. With the previous hour or so showing strong support at and below the PP Pivot, do not get greedy on this and look for more ticks. The longer term reaction was able to deliver a bigger yield which is often the case with this report. Ensure you are flat by 1430 when the pit closes.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 10.05.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Oct 052012

10/5/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 114K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 114K
Previous Revision: +46K to 142K
Rate Forecast: 8.2%
Rate Actual: 7.8%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 90.49
1st Peak @ 91.71 – 0233 (3 min)
122 ticks

Reversal to 90.92 – 0237 (7 min)
79 ticks

Extended Reversal to 90.17 – 0345 (75 min)
154 ticks

Notes: We got our October surprise with this report. A matching jobs # with the forecast, but a whopping 0.4% drop in the rate. The market initially reacted long on the news in the first 3 bars, going from the LOD to the HOD for 122 ticks. The spike crossed the PP Pivot, then all 3 SMAs on top of each other. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at about 90.67 with 8 ticks of slippage. If you look at the range chart you will notice it initially jumped up about 30 ticks, then proceeded to seesaw between 90.80 and 91.10 (30 ticks range) for the next 5 sec. Then it dipped to test the PP Pivot and bounced long up to 91.28 to close out the :31 bar near its high. After seeing the seesaw activity, I would place a sell limit order at about 91.05, 5 ticks below the upper limit, which would have filled toward the end of the bar with about a 40 tick profit. The next 2 bars continued higher for another 50 ticks, but that is not typical or predictable. As the internals of the BOLS report became suspicious where most of the drop in the rate was attributed to nearly 600K part-time jobs, the market began to sell off. The initial reversal reclaimed 79 ticks in 4 min after the peak, then the extended reversal yielded 154 ticks over an hour later. The market continued to sell off until about 12 pm Eastern.

CL 11 12 (2 Range) 10.05.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Oct 052012

NG 11 12 (1 Min) 10.04.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Oct 042012

10/4/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 72B
Actual: 77B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.428
1st Peak @ 3.360 – 0431 (1 min)
68 ticks

Reversal to 3.437 – 0439 (9 min)
77 ticks

Notes: Another Nearly matching report with a large gain in supply caused a healthy short spike. The initial spike crossed all 3 SMAs near the origin on its downward path. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the spike with about 20 ticks of slippage at about 3.395. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with about 20 ticks where it hovered around 3.375 as the bar was expiring. The reversal found its legs on the :37-:39 bars, claiming 77 ticks as it rebounded through the 3 major SMAs, and the PP Pivot.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 10.04.12

Factory Orders Comments Off

Oct 042012

10/4/2012 Monthly Factory Orders (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: -6.0%
Actual: -5.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSAL
Started @ 88.98
Peak @ 88.87 – 0402 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 89.43 – 0419 (19 min)
56 ticks

Notes: Odd but very negative report overall despite a reading better than the forecast. This caused the market to short 11 ticks crossing the PP Pivot, 100 and 50 SMAs, then rebound into a much larger reversal in the following 17 min. Normally the forecast and reading of this report is within the range of +/- 1.5%. The forecast of -6.0% was very abnormal. Even with a better result, the big picture is still very dismal. The large reversal long was due to the dollar dropping significantly on the news. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 88.91, then had an opportunity to close out at break even or with a handful of ticks if you waited on the :02 bar. The reversal was aided by the strong support of all the SMAs and the PP near or below the origin.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 10.03.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Oct 032012

10/3/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.6M
Actual: -0.5M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 89.55
1st Peak @ 89.90 – 0432 (2 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 88.64 – 0503 (33 min)
126 ticks

Notes: Moderate loss in inventory when a moderate gain was expected caused a moderate long spike for 35 ticks in 2 min. The spike went against the grain of the bearish dive to hit the 50 SMA, but could not rally any higher. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 89.69 with 4 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out with about 12-18 ticks as it hovered around 89.85 for several seconds. As the market was already in a downtrend, the reversal quickly took over and fell methodically over the next 30 min for 126 ticks.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 10.03.12

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Oct 032012

10/3/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 53.2
Actual: 55.1
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 90.12
1st Peak @ 90.28 – 0401 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 89.25 – 0408 (8 min)
103 ticks

Notes: Positive report moderately exceeded the forecast. This caused a 16 tick up spike on the :01 bar, which was unable to go any higher and promptly plummeted. Since the global economic fears took center stage again today, oil was selling off the entire session. This report caused a brief respite for the bulls, but when the report was realized, the bears took over and caused the huge reversal of 103 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled on the long entry at about 90.20, then had an opportunity to close out with about 5-7 ticks as it hovered hitting resistance at the 20 SMA. With the bearish mood of the day and the 20 SMA able to prevent any further upward movement, that is the place to get out before the nose dive.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 10.01.12

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

Oct 012012

10/1/2012 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0630 HI time / 1230 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 92.50
Peak @ 92.21 – 0639 (9 min)
29 ticks

Reverse to 92.59 – 0647 (17 min)
38 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke was on the defense this time in response to the critics of QE3. He vigorously defended the action taken as necessary and helpful and denied that the FED was enabling bid deficits. After the :31 bar rose for a few ticks, the market fell into a methodical 29 tick dive over 8 bars to nearly hit a double bottom at the 92.20 area from almost an hour earlier. The small rise initially hit the 100 SMA and fell, slicing through the 50 SMA. With JOBB, if you had not cancelled the order, you would have filled at about 92.43 short with no slippage. After it encountered mild support at the 50 SMA, I would close out at about 92.28 on the :35 bar for about 15 ticks. The reversal basically reclaimed the drop, crossing the 100 and 50 SMAs in 8 min after the peak for 38 ticks. Then it repeated the cycle and seesawed on either side of the 50 and 100 SMAs on top of each other.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 10.01.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Oct 012012

10/1/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 49.8
Actual: 51.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 92.85
1st Peak @ 93.32 – 0404 (4 min)
47 ticks (2x top)

Reversal to 92.76 – 0423 (23 min)
56 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by a decent margin and had a reading above 50 for the first time in 4 months. This caused a healthy rally of 47 ticks in 4 bars (mostly on the :01 bar) that crossed the 50 SMA and the R2 Pivot to peak at the HOD reached 45 min earlier. With JOBB, you would have filled long with about 3 ticks of slippage at 92.95, then had an opportunity to close with about 15 ticks as it hovered in the 93.10 area. The market was overbought in the very short term due to the rally of over 180 ticks in the previous 2.5 hrs. It backed off of the peak before the report, but the bulls were restrained, preventing an even higher rally or 2nd peak. The reversal was able to reclaim 56 ticks in a methodical drop to the 100 SMA in 23 min. It eventually dropped to the 200 SMA and lower, probably correcting the earlier rally, not the ISM report.

NG 11 12 (1 Min) 09.27.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Sep 272012

9/27/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 75B
Actual: 80B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.264
1st Peak @ 3.247 – 0431 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 3.280 – 0432 (2 min)
33 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.210 – 0449 (19 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 3.249 – 0501 (31 min)
39 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report with a large gain in supply caused a relatively dull reaction for the NG. After some initial noise, it drifted lower for 17 ticks, sitting on the R1 at the origin, then crossing the 100 and 200 SMAs on the short move. It retreated and left the entire tail naked, finishing where it started. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the spike with no slippage at about 3.254. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with about 2-3 ticks where it hovered before retreating upward. The reversal quickly recovered above the 50 SMA and the R1 Pivot for 33 ticks, then fell into the 2nd peak. The 2nd peak took 3 steps as it ratcheted lower for 54 ticks. With a near matching report, tame initial reaction, and the SMAs surrounding the action at the beginning, I would not be inclined to take a manual trade on this report. However, selling a rip on the :32 bar with a stop above the HOD at 3.290 would have been a safe play. Keep an eye on it as it crosses the 100 and 200 SMAs on the :33 and :34 bars (no large support influence), and closeout after the :34 bar.

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